Pardons won't help Manafort. He admitted to state crimes in his plea agreement.

[tableturner]

He committed many crimes not charged by Mueller, and in his plea agreement, Manafort admitted to many of those crimes. Because of those admissions, he basically has no defense if charged for those acts.

That was done to bypass some states' prohibition against prosecuting acts that were charged federally and subsequently pardoned by a president (this is especially important relative to New York, where many of Manafort's crimes were committed).

The point is that even if Trump were to pardon Manafort for the charged crimes, Manafort's plea agreement had him admitting to a slew of other acts that are chargeable by states. The bottom line is that Mueller put in place a mechanism that ensured that a possible pardon by Trump would not rescue Manafort from a long prison sentence.

This move by Mueller obliterated any pardon based motivation for Manafort to renege on his plea agreement. Mueller has "Trump-proofed" his deal with Manafort. See:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/18/manafort-deal-pardon-mueller-trump-827898

"Special counsel Robert Mueller’s plea agreement with Paul Manafort on Friday took unusual and possibly unprecedented steps to undercut President Donald Trump’s ability to pardon his former campaign chairman."

(Snip)

"Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz said he believes the main safeguard in the plea deal against a Trump pardon is the fact that Manafort admitted to many state-law crimes that he could be charged with if the federal cases are wiped out."

[Baitball Blogger]

1. I think the theory is that he's afraid of the Russian mafia.

Sounds plausible.

Which begs the question, is it easier to get shanked in Federal or State prison?

[cstanleytech]

3. Oh he probably afraid of a specific Russian with the last name of Putin and

he has a good reason to be as Putin has shown a willingness to use assassination to silence people multiple times.

[eggplant]

9. Why would he silence him multiple times?

http://quotegeek.com/quotes-from-movies/clue/628/

Mrs. White: He threatened to kill me in public.
Miss Scarlet: Why would he want to kill you in public?
Wadsworth: I think she meant he threatened, in public, to kill her.
Miss Scarlet: Oh.

[cstanleytech]

15. Multiple times as in one case polonium was used to murder Alexander Litvinenko

where as in others the methods used have varied from being shot on the street to providing assistance to help someone throw themselves off the top of a building.
Not to mention of course the attempts that were made to murder some people using a nerve agent recently.

[onenote]

19. If its so plausibel, why did he fight so hard to stay out of prison

This idea that he wanted to be in prison for protection is a joke.
He fought for pretrial release.
He fought against home detention
He violated home detention
He fought against being sent to prison after violating home detention
He fought against being transferred to the Alexandria Detention Center where he'd be in protective custody.

[Pantagruel]

2. Paulie took a shot

Going to jail no matter what, he tried to lie his way through a plea deal, Mueller caught him, probably easily.
But PM had nothing to lose if he wants to survive in jail, he really can't give up too much.

[George II]

4. Bazinga! He's toast no matter what trump does.

[Pepsidog]

5. Excellent post. This is what many are missing, Manafort's guilty plea is bullet proof.

[regnaD kciN]

6. Which state?

Remember, in NY, if you get a presidential pardon for federal crimes, you can’t be prosecuted for state crimes involving the same incident. And there’s a case heading to the Kavanaugh Supreme Court that would make state prosecutions after a presidential pardon unconstitutional “double jeopardy” anywhere in the U.S.

[edhopper]

7. The reason they put

Kavanaugh on the Court

[Kaleva]

10. State tax fraud could be prosecuted by the state of NY even if Manfort got a pardon

It's my understanding that the reason Mueller was working with the New York AG was that Mueller's team uncovered a number of crimes that could be prosecuted by the state and not at the federal level. This is Mueller's Dead Man Switch.

[FakeNoose]

11. If they have him on RICO charges (tax evasion)

... it could be any state where he has a residence including Virginia. I believe he also has a home in New York, but recently he's been living and working in Alexandria, VA, am I right? That means he could be convicted in every one of those states for tax evasion and it would not be double jeopardy.

[tableturner]

13. Mueller had Manafort admit to crimes not federally charged, which are also state crimes.

So Manafort has in his plea agreement admitted to acts that are illegal in certain states, and those are acts Mueller did not use to charge Manafort. So if we are talking about New York, they cannot prosecute acts charged federally and pardoned by Trump, but they can prosecute acts not federally charged that Manafort admitted to in his plea agreement.

[Nevilledog]

21. That's not what Gamble is about

https://www.popehat.com/2018/10/04/lawsplainer-no-kavanaughs-confirmation-wont-free-all-of-trumps-crimimous-minions-through-an-obscure-double-jeopardy-case/

[Jarqui]

26. Thank you for that

[Nevilledog]

27. You're very welcome.

People's misunderstanding of Gamble, oftentimes based on inaccurate reporting, is a bit of a pet peeve of mine. I've posted many times on the subject.



And yes, I'm a lawyer

[Jarqui]

29. I was one who misunderstood so your efforts helped me greatly

I'm grateful to learn of it.

And i'm glad that these crooks can't get away that easily.

When they do the postmortem on this, I hope some changes are made such that the president has no such control over a special prosecutor and his/her ability to pardon is curtailed from cases that involve him/her. (crudely stated)

[Nevilledog]

30. I would totally agree with those changes.

If you have the time you should read all the briefs submitted on the Gamble case. The amicus briefs are fascinating.

http://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/gamble-v-united-states/

[Jarqui]

32. I was thinking about this

I'm not sure it was an accident

Imagine if you are Trump or folks close to him vulnerable to Mueller's investigation.
The pardon concept gets floated ... but frustratingly shot down because of state level charges
So to keep the troops in line, they dangle Gamble v USA and Kavanaugh. A lot of these folks have a proven track record of lapping up conspiracies - including Corsi & Flynn
They might have floated Whittaker will play ball by charging as many Federal crimes as he can so they can be pardoned and take out similar state charges via Gamble v USA.
Maybe they get to Manafort's lawyer to put their thumb on the scale ...
Maybe Manafort has been suckered to believe Gamble v USA will save him.
Thus, he screws over Mueller in his plea deal ...

Something had to have enticed Manafort to do what he did. Maybe this was it

[Nevilledog]

33. Then they are stupider than I thought.

Even if Whitaker could manage that there's no way to be pardoned for violating State tax crimes.

These buffoons have committed so many crimes in so many places it would be nearly impossible to shield them.

If there's a single lawyer working for trump who believes Gamble would save them it's just more proof he only hires idiots.

[uponit7771]

28. "involving the same incident" my understanding is involving similar is good enough l

[Buckeyeblue]

8. Manafort sold his soul to the devil

And we all know that Putin doesn't give back his souls. It's not what will happen to him in prison, it's what will happen to his family while he is in prison. This is like Breaking Bad shit

[certainot]

12. the whitey bulger hit may have been a message to snitches

[Hamlette]

14. I think he has something to hide, something that would admitting would be worse than prison

IMHO he is not afraid of Putin. You notice, Putin kills people in other countries, not here in the US.

It is possible that Trump sent word that he would pardon him and he discussed the state charges with counsel and decided to chance it.

At least I hope that is what it is and I assume Mueller knows what it is.

It must be bad. Saying: "I took money to give favorable treatment to Russia." Would not be enough. My guess is the feds have him on tape saying he would do something clearly against US interests.

[tableturner]

16. State charges: He has no defense. He admitted to acts that are illegal in New York, for example.

Take his chances with state crimes? He does not have a chance at all with regard to any criminal acts he has admitted to have committed.

[Hamlette]

17. I think there are legal arguments he could use

like the statements were made thinking he had immunity which, he would say, was unfairly taken hence 5th amendment violation. There are a couple more defenses avail here too.

[tableturner]

18. Manafort had immunity, lied, had it fairly taken away. No 5th amendment violation.

He said what he said while under a valid plea agreement, which HE broke. You cannot break a plea agreement, then claim that what you said while the plea agreement was in place cannot be used.

[onenote]

20. Dershowitz should study New York law.

https://www.law.com/newyorklawjournal/2018/08/23/bill-to-close-so-called-double-jeopardy-loophole-would-not-affect-manafort-cohen/?slreturn=20181027110842

[tableturner]

22. Actually, you are wrong.

The drive to change New York's double jeopardy loophole and a possible change in that loophole has nothing to do with Manafort's fate. Without changing the law, New York state's prosecutors can charge Manafort for any acts that are crimes in that state if those same acts were not charged by the federal government, even if Trump pardons him for the OTHER acts and crimes federally charged.

Manafort admitted to acts that are crimes in New York. Those acts were not part of the federal charges Mueller brought against Manafort, so even if Manafort receives a pardon for OTHER acts, the state can and will nail him for illegal acts not federally charged and subsequently pardoned.

THAT is why Mueller did not charge Manafort for all of his illegal actions, and also why Mueller had Manafort admit to those illegal acts in his plea agreement.

[onenote]

23. Actually, not necessarily.

Last edited Tue Nov 27, 2018, 03:41 PM - Edit history (1)

The "other charges" listed in the Manafort Statement of Offenses (falling outside the two counts that he pleaded guilty to), consist of the same seven bank fraud/bank fraud conspiracy charges on which the jury failed to reach a verdict in the Eastern District case. The reason they were included in the DC statement of offenses was basically to take the idea of a retrial of those charges off the table.

As for whether a state could bring its own bank fraud/bank fraud conspiracy case against Manafort on the same facts notwithstanding a federal pardon -- well, that depends on the scope of the pardon. I have no reason to think that if Trump was to issue a pardon it wouldn't, at minimum, cover every charge that was brought against Manafort in both the US District Court for DC and the Eastern District of Virginia, including those charges that resulted in a hung jury.

One doesn't have to have been convicted to receive a pardon.

[tableturner]

24. I am referring to a long list of illegal acts admitted by Manafort.

I was NOT referring to the two charges of which he was convicted, nor the seven charges on which the jury failed to reach a conclusion. I WAS referring to a long list of acts that are illegal federally and in most states.

Mueller had Manafort admit to those illegal acts, none of which he was prosecuting, so if a state charged him with those acts, it would be an almost automatic conviction. A key part of Mueller's plan was the decision to not prosecute those crimes. Therefore, those charges would not be subject to the so-called double jeopardy laws existing in some states, including New York, because they were not federal charges subsequently pardoned.

[onenote]

25. The Statement of Offenses to which Manafort Subscribed

consists of the following:
Counts One and Two (which he pleaded guilty) and seven specific "other charges" which relate to alleged bank fraud and bank fraud conspiracy. All seven were put to a jury in the Eastern District and under NY law, that is enough to prevent NY from trying someone for them again, apart from any pardon, which, as I mentioned, almost certainly would cover all of those alleged offenses as well.

There are no other crimes that Manafort admitted to committing outside the ones identified in the Statement of Offenses. And his reason for not prosecuting the "other offenses" was that they had been tried, unsuccessfully, in the Eastern District and, in all likelihood, it was a giveaway to Manafort to take the prospect of a retrial on those offenses (and the cost of having to defend against a retrial and potentially get additional jail time) off the table.

If there are other illegal acts that Manafort admitted, I'd be curious to know where that admission is made.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

31. K&R