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Sat Dec 29, 2018, 04:41 PM

The Florida 2018 elections for U.S. Senator and Governor Are Highly Suspicious

Shortly prior to the 2018 midterms I contacted the Orange County, Florida (where I live) supervisor of elections to ask them how they intended to ensure that our votes are counted accurately. The answer was that audits would be conducted on statistically valid samples of ballots, and that this would be followed up by hand recounts where audits provided a red flag for serious errors. I was pleasantly surprised to hear that because of our country’s history of woefully inadequate election security and integrity in the 21st Century.

Following the election and the calling of the governor and Senator elections in Florida, I again contacted the Orange County supervisor of elections to follow up on their audit plans. I was told that there would be no audit because the machine recounts (for both elections) and hand recount (for the Senator election) made audits unnecessary. I tried to explain why the partial recounts that were done in no way made audits or follow-up full hand recounts unnecessary – but to no avail.

The partial hand recount of the Florida Senate election strongly suggests fraud (see below). The 2018 machine and partial hand recounts of the governor and U.S. Senate races in Florida were woefully inadequate as a means of ruling out fraud because: The machine recounts are inadequate for that purpose simply because if they had been programmed for fraud prior to the election there would be no good reason to believe that recounting of the votes by the same machines would produce a significantly different result than the original count.

The hand recount included only under- and over-votes, which amounted to about 32,000 ballots, less than 0.4% of the full Florida vote count. I’ve read two somewhat conflicting accounts of the results, but they both indicate substantial narrowing of Rick Scott’s lead over bill Nelson. According to CNN, Scott’s lead of 12,603 votes decreased by more than 2,500 votes following the hand recount. According to the Miami Herald, only 410 additional valid votes for Nelson and 136 valid votes for Scott were found from the recount (2). Although these accounts appear to contradict each other, there are two very important points that need to be emphasized about either scenario: 1) Nelson’s gains on the hand recount in either case are far too great to be attributed to random statistical error (I used statistics on a daily basis for 40 years in my career as an epidemiologist). The odds against such gains occurring by random chance are astronomical – exceeding odds of millions to one; and, 2) Given that the hand recount involved less than 0.4% of Florida’s ballots, if similar differences were found in the rest of the state in a follow-up recount, Nelson’s gains would exceed his current deficit by tens of thousands of votes, even using the lower vote count difference noted above.

I am not implying that the above proves election fraud – though it is certainly very suggestive of that. But certainly any election system geared towards ensuring the accuracy of the vote count would mandate a state-wide hand recount of the Senate race under these circumstances (and the governor’s race if the Senate recount changed the results of the election).

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Reply The Florida 2018 elections for U.S. Senator and Governor Are Highly Suspicious (Original post)
Time for change Dec 2018 OP
Raster Dec 2018 #1
edhopper Dec 2018 #2
Cetacea Dec 2018 #3
Time for change Dec 2018 #4
malaise Dec 2018 #5
onethatcares Dec 2018 #14
malaise Dec 2018 #15
Sancho Dec 2018 #6
mountain grammy Dec 2018 #11
Amaryllis Dec 2018 #28
ffr Dec 2018 #7
appalachiablue Dec 2018 #8
JoeOtterbein Dec 2018 #9
Time for change Dec 2018 #19
JoeOtterbein Dec 2018 #24
DENVERPOPS Dec 2018 #22
soryang Dec 2018 #10
Hermit-The-Prog Dec 2018 #12
Time for change Dec 2018 #17
SergeStorms Dec 2018 #13
mcar Dec 2018 #16
cureautismnow Dec 2018 #18
Time for change Dec 2018 #20
cureautismnow Dec 2018 #25
Time for change Dec 2018 #26
uponit7771 Dec 2018 #27
DENVERPOPS Dec 2018 #21
Time for change Dec 2018 #23
Sudsy Dec 2018 #29
elocs Dec 2018 #30
Time for change Dec 2018 #31
questionseverything Dec 2018 #37
Time for change Dec 2018 #38
questionseverything Dec 2018 #39
Time for change Dec 2018 #40
brooklynite Dec 2018 #32
Polybius Dec 2018 #34
Time for change Dec 2018 #35
Time for change Dec 2018 #36
Blue Owl Dec 2018 #33

Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 04:47 PM

1. Kick!

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 04:49 PM

2. Of course it was stolen

Nelson was up 2.5% and Gillum 3.5% going into the election.

The swing to the GOP is beyond suspicious.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 05:07 PM

3. A clue to how the software works might be in how the tallies always flip in the last hour

on election night. This has been the pattern since Ohio 2004. As many have noticed the polls usually pull to within a percentage point (see Trump in critical dem states) Of course the software is protected by Corporate laws.

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Response to Cetacea (Reply #3)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 05:22 PM

4. In the 2016 election

Clinton was predicted to win in FL, NC, WI, PA, and MI in pre-election polls AND all those states except Michigan in the exit polls (Exit polls predicted a draw in Michigan). Discrepancies between exit polls and official results were beyond the statistical margins of error in WI, PA, and NC. And yet the U.S. popular vote was very similar in exit polls compared to official results.

That was highly suspicious. Money was raised for recounts in MI, WI, and PA (couldn't raise enough for FL and NC within the allowed time frame). But the Trump campaign challenged the recounts in state courts, which ruled against recounts in MI and PA, and which allowed recounts by machine in WI -- which made them worthless.

It's a terrible travesty to our "democracy" that we can't get valid recounts of suspicious elections and that election software and hardware is considered off-limits to those who wish to assess the integrity of our elections.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 05:28 PM

5. Truth will out

Start digging in the Hurricane Michael areas

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Response to malaise (Reply #5)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 07:05 PM

14. start digging in the Opa Looka Post Office

where ballots sat due to some national emergency related to a "powder". They then became uncountable due to the lateness of them arriving.

That investigation has been out of sight since the election

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Response to onethatcares (Reply #14)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 07:08 PM

15. Wow

Let's send some links to Rachel

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 05:32 PM

6. The repubs have been stealing elections in Florida since 2000.

- DREs that flip votes
- manipulating absentee ballots
- undervotes in tabulators
- polls

etc., etc. all point to cheating on the counting.

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Response to Sancho (Reply #6)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 06:49 PM

11. Yep, one thing they're good at.

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Response to Sancho (Reply #6)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 12:11 AM

28. Ditto that. IT's the only way they can win.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 05:40 PM

7. K&R

For civic involvement.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 06:22 PM

8. K & R. Thanks for your involvement & persistence. Secure elections

are vital to democracy, and we're experiencing serious problems in a number of states and counties in recent decades.

The intentional gutting of the 1965 Voting Rights Act's key provision was also major.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 06:36 PM

9. Yes and Florida was rigged in '16 too.

Here in PA, it makes no sense that a Dem like Tom Wolf would win by a landslide in a off-year election two years after we elected Trump. In York County where I live, their is no receipt or anything at the polls machines. Just a touch-screen with names. Wolf is making the county buy new machines before 2020. The Trump rethugs might just be in for a big surprise!

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Reply #9)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 07:35 PM

19. That could be very helpful

But do you know what kind of machines they are? I hope they aren't more DRE machines. I just heard today that 84% of the votes in PA in 2016 had no associated paper trail -- which means that there would be no way to verify the vote even if the state wanted to do it.

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Response to Time for change (Reply #19)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 09:07 PM

24. PA is a mess thanks to years of Rethug control...

...I don't know which machines York is buying. I'm hoping Gov Wolf will check them out before buying them.

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Response to JoeOtterbein (Reply #9)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 08:14 PM

22. dream on

And what happens with the "new" machines, when the owner of the company is a super Republican???? Just like the CEO of Diebold, or whatever Diebolds new company name is?????? AND the new company installs software that is protected from investigation because of Proprietary Information/Protection??????? Besides, it could be an additional corruption problem with corrupted compiler machines that actually gather and compile the votes being sent to them.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 06:48 PM

10. 18 years of this in Florida

I just assume the elections here are rigged based on my own observations of shennigans at Florida polling places over the years, but appreciate someone with a statistics background explain why this years Florida election contests stink.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 06:58 PM

12. are any lawsuits in the works?

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Response to Hermit-The-Prog (Reply #12)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 07:26 PM

17. Not that I'm aware of

There should be.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 07:04 PM

13. Paper ballots with a printed receipt for EVERYTHING!

I don't care if it takes a month to get the final results of an election. It's the only method to make sure republicans haven't stolen another election. Even then I imagine they'll come up with a way to subvert democracy. It's what they do, and they can't win in a fair election.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 07:14 PM

16. It was very suspicious

plus the idea that the artificial deadline for certifying the election is more important than making sure all votes are counted is absurd.

NPR's FL show (I forget the name) had a good 2018 roundup the other day. The reporters and commenters talked a lot about the need to extend the certification deadline, pointing out that some states take a month or more to count all the votes.

Also, scolded media for calling close races on election night as that adds credibility to the supposed "winner."

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 07:28 PM

18. No doubt. Just look at the Commissioner of Agriculture Results.

After a recount, Nikki Fried (Democrat) won. How is it possible that Democrats voted for Fried, but not Nelson and Gillum? There has got to be some vote flipping going on by the counting machines, but only in the important races. The media (especially those in South Florida) should be hand counting the ballots tabulated by the machines to verify the results. It's the only way to expose the election fraud.

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Response to cureautismnow (Reply #18)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 07:55 PM

20. Unfortunately, electronic vote manipulation is a taboo subject in our country

Here is a link to a 3 hour discussion titled, "Was the 2016 election rigged in favor of Trump?" It's long, but I wish everyone would see it. It contains a good deal of discussion on how our national corporate news media doesn't want to talk about the subject. The U.S. Congress has also been cowed into silence about it. Dennis Kucinich was one of the few members of Congress who dared to talk about it, and his House seat consequently disappeared.

One of the members of the panel in the video (Mark Crispin Miller or Bob Fritakis, I can't remember which one) talks about a discussion he had with John Kerry about the 2004 election. He says that Kerry ranted about how that election was stolen from him. But Kerry adamantly denies that he ever asserted cheating in the 2004 election.

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Response to Time for change (Reply #20)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 09:27 PM

25. In theory, couldn't a Democratic Supervisor of Elections...

...in one of the Democratic counties start hand counting the machine tabulated ballots to verify their machine results now? If I were in such a position, I'd want to do it just for curiosity's sake. Hell, it should be a part of their job description to prove the integrity of their operations. I'd bet there would be plenty of volunteers available to accomplish the task. Is there a Florida law that says they can't do that?

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Response to cureautismnow (Reply #25)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 09:38 PM

26. I could be wrong, but I doubt that would be legal

I've never heard of it being done.

I'm pretty sure that a recount of any state election or part of it would have to come from the top of the state hierarchy.

But it would be a great idea if it could be done.

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Response to Time for change (Reply #20)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 10:39 PM

27. +1

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 08:05 PM

21. Yada, yada, yada

It's the same thing, over and over and over again, ever since 2000, 2004.
It was more than obvious the electronic voting machines & tallies were corrupted. No Question. When the head of Diebold in Ohio promises the election to the Republicans?????????? When all the Key states election results flipped in favor of the Republican candidate for President?????

AND YET, MY BIGGEST QUESTION WAS WHEN OBAMA WAS ELECTED, WHY HE AND THE DEMOCRATIC HOUSE FOR TWO YEARS DID NOT ADDRESS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM EVER, STARING THE U.S. IN THE FACE.
WHY, WHEN THEY HAD THE PRESIDENCY AND THE HOUSE, NOT IMMEDIATELY LAUNCH AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE CORRUPTED VOTING SYSTEM??????

Some people I have asked have said, well Obama won the election, proving the system was okay.........BS........The Republicans simply figured he would win by a lesser %age than he did. The voting for him, was way underestimated by them, and when a larger number of people voted for Obama than they predicted, the machines and/or tabulations were rigged for an amount less than the massive number people who voted for Obama.......

Obviously, with the Repubs owning the Presidency, the U.S. House and Senate, the Dept of Justice, the FBI, etc etc etc this won't ever be thoroughly investigated and when (if) found fraudulent, the fraud will never be acknowledged, corrected, or prosecuted. Having the House Majority Democrats is not enough to do didily-crap. That alone is not enough to do anything. And besides, when it reached the TOTALLY owned and operated Republican Supreme Court, they would rule in favor of the Republicans regardless..........Much like they ILLEGALLY did in 2000, but more so now with their recent Court Appointees.........
WASF

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Response to DENVERPOPS (Reply #21)

Sat Dec 29, 2018, 08:55 PM

23. You're right about Obama's election

There were very large red shifts in the official presidential vote count compared to exit polls in the 2008 election. But Obama had such a lead on McCain that it didn't flip the race.

Democratic politicians have long been afraid to seriously challenge election results except when the margin of victory is extremely thin and recounts are demanded by law, as in Al Franken's initial election as Minnesota's Senator. Neither John Kerry in 2004 nor Hillary in 2016 asked for any recounts. In both cases it was the Green Party candidate (with some help from other losing candidates in 2004) who demanded and paid for recounts in critical states. In Ohio in 2004 the resulting recount was badly corrupted. The requested recounts in 2016 in MI, WI, and PA were challenged by the Trump campaign in state courts and were disallowed in MI and PA. A recount was done in WI, but the court allowed individual counties to do the recount by running the ballots through the same machines that provided the original counts -- which made the recount worthless.

Here is a three hour video on election fraud in the U.S. titled "Was the 2016 election rigged in favor of Trump" that includes a lengthy discussion on how discussion of electronic vote manipulation in the United States today is patently taboo for our politicians and for our news media:


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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 12:16 PM

29. Elections

in Florida, Ohio, and Georgia are always more than suspect. You can also include North Carolina.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)


Response to elocs (Reply #30)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 01:04 PM

31. We need paper trails for all elections, AND a combination of audits or exit polls, followed by

full hand recounts of paper ballots for all suspect election.

Election machines or software should NEVER be considered "proprietary" and off limits for public investigation

Also, it would be best to eliminate DRE machines entirely -- i.e. not accept them if and when they are associated with paper trails -- i.e. verified paper audit trails, or VPATs. VPATS have several problems, including the possibility that they could be programmed to produce false paper ballots while appearing to produce a vote aligned with the voter's intention.

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Response to Time for change (Reply #31)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 04:51 PM

37. i apprciate your passion for this subject but i do not agree with your solution

hand counted paper ballots in full public view with a tight chain of custody for results is the only answer

it is the only solution that allows the average citizen the right to oversee their own elections

if the average citizen can not oversee the election process then we do not have a legitimate democracy

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Response to questionseverything (Reply #37)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 05:24 PM

38. Yours is a more complete and foolproof solution than what I recommended above.

But it probably isn't as politically acceptable. If your solution is not found to be politically acceptable, I think that what I recommended above would be a great improvement over what we have now, at least as a stop-gap measure.

But I would love it if our country switched over to hand counted paper ballots in public view for all of our elections. It's just hard for me to visualize that happening anytime soon.

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Response to Time for change (Reply #38)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 05:41 PM

39. when vw was caught using software to cheat mileage tests, i hoped people would wake up and realize

software can be programmed to do anything


ANYTHING

I agree what you are proposing would be a step in the right direction but

I still wonder why are the ptb so against showing us the ballots if their machines are so accurate?

to be clear, I support your cause and admire your determination

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Response to questionseverything (Reply #39)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 06:11 PM

40. As you and I both know, the reason they are so against recounts and allowing access to

their machines and software is that then they wouldn't be able to cheat anymore, and worse yet, they could go to jail.

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 01:40 PM

32. Just to review: "they" rigged the votes for GOV and SEN...

...but didn’t rig the vote for the referendum restoring voting rights to ex-convicts. Villains have SUCH a hard to get good help...

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #32)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 03:29 PM

34. They can only rig something close

There was no way that they could rig something that passed with 64% of the vote.

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Response to Polybius (Reply #34)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 04:17 PM

35. The Senate race was decided by a 0.3% margin, Gov race by about 0.8% margin

Yes, it would probably be very difficult to rig something passing by a 64% margin.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #32)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 04:23 PM

36. Whether you believe the Sen. and Gov race was rigged or not

certainly, given the findings of the partial hand recount, it would have been a good idea, and should have been mandatory, to do a full hand recount of the state, or at least a substantially larger one than was initially done (which was 0.4% of the state).

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Response to Time for change (Original post)

Sun Dec 30, 2018, 03:21 PM

33. I wanna see some fucking heads rolling over this...

Crooked, cheating, criminal GOP heads...

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