I think Elizabeth Warren can run away with the nomination

[bigtree]

...first, this isn't an endorsement. Elizabeth Warren doesn't fill out my ideal of a candidate, and there are many others who are closer to that ideal.

That said, I think Sen. Warren has made a brilliant early foray into the race. Like a capable long-distance runner, she's broken out of the gate well before other potential contenders, and has the potential (and I think the endurance) to maintain that distance for the entire race.

I've seen Elizabeth Warren in several forums, and she is an energetic and engaging speaker. She's totally wonkish, but also sharp and direct when attacking the republican opposition.

More than that, she brings an agenda to these forums which mirrors what she's actively pursuing in her Senate role; issues like collage affordability, prescription drugs, campaign finance reform. Elizabeth Warren also brings accomplishments in the Senate to the presidential election, including the formation of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFPB) as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform.

It's a populist platform which is actually mainstream Democratic policy for most legislators in this congressional and Senate term, but Sen. Warren's agenda also happens to echo the Sanders campaign's focus on money in politics.

Elizabeth Warren outside her home in Cambridge right after she announced the formation of her exploratory committee:

“I don't think we ought to be running campaigns that are funded by billionaires whether it goes through super PACs or their own money that they're spending. Democrats are the party of the people -- and the way we make that clear is we join together and we fund our campaigns.”

Last week we saw the bare bones of a Sanders-like bid for the presidency in several appointments to Sen. Warren's campaign committee. But there's also a lean toward Barack Obama's decidedly more pragmatic politics in her picks...

from Iowa Starting Line:

Although she avoided making the early trips to Iowa during the 2018 cycle, Senator Elizabeth Warren has already secured an impressive line-up of Iowa campaign operatives that will help put her into serious contention for the Iowa Caucus. Her campaign tells Starting Line that Kane Miller, Emily Parcell, Janice Rottenberg and Brendan Summers have all signed on to be part of Warren’s Iowa operation.

Warren’s addition of Summers to her team brings on a former top Bernie Sanders adviser. Summers served as Sanders’ caucus director in 2016, which should help Warren create a caucus strategy that builds upon her fellow progressive senator’s success from four years ago. Summers has worked in Iowa politics for many cycles, and he knows the ins and outs of the caucus process better than few others from his time as the state party’s caucus-to-convention and caucus director in 2008 and 2012. He most recently worked for Jason Kander’s Let America Vote organization.

Rottenberg served as the Iowa Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign director in the 2018 cycle, a year where Democrats broke record early vote and turnout numbers, flipped two congressional seats and picked up several Iowa House districts. She was the field director for the state party in 2014, was a top organizing staffer on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 caucus campaign, and has also held key roles in Ohio and Virginia campaigns.

Miller guided Abby Finkenauer’s congressional campaign to victory in Iowa’s 1st District this past year, electing one of Iowa’s two first female members of the U.S. House. He was also Clinton’s Iowa state director in the 2016 general election after serving as a regional field director in the caucus.

Parcell is a longtime Iowa staffer and consultant, working as Barack Obama’s political director for his 2008 Iowa Caucus team. She’s been through many caucus campaign cycles, including as part of Dick Gephardt’s 2004 and Al Gore’s 2000 teams. Parcell started up her own consulting firm several years back, and has earned a reputation as one of the best and most creative direct mail strategists in Iowa and around the country.

Elizabeth Warren is sprinting comfortably, with virtually no one on her heels at this point. She's fit and well-prepared for this race. I think the expected wave of fellow Democratic contenders will have a great deal of catching up to do if they want to overtake this seasoned, long-distance, breakaway candidate.



Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) greets an overflow crowd outside of the Our Place Community Center before participating in a roundtable discussion on Jan. 5, 2019 in Storm Lake, Iowa. Scott Olson / Getty Images

[hexola]

1. I liked her more in the past than I did the few clips I've seen from Iowa.

Seems like she's trying too hard to seem personable.

I liked her former, more stern, delivery.

I think it was Haberman this morning on CNN saying something to the effect that last years Liz Warren was better against Trump.

I kind of agree with her.

[WhiteTara]

18. She agreed with Bernie

and said something that will divide the party deeply.

[athena]

37. This was completely predictable.

The moment a woman starts running for the presidency, she becomes ‘unlikable’. A woman is too stern, or not stern enough; she just can’t get it right. In 2016, Warren was every liberal Hillary hater’s way of refuting claims of sexism. Now that Warren is running, she’s no longer likable enough, stern enough, savvy enough, you name it. What surprises me is how short everybody’s memory is. The hypocrisy is sickening.

[guillaumeb]

2. Recommended.

And if she were to win the nomination, voters would have a choice of voting for a progressive populism, as opposed to the fascist populism of Trump.

And if she clearly lays out the difference between her vision of hope versus the Trump vision of fear,

and, a very large and, if the US conservative corporate media covers the differences, she has an excellent chance.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

27. Recommended+1... yes, Elizabeth could EASILY run away with the nomination.

Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!!

[democratisphere]

3. Way too early for predictions like this.

There are many highly qualified potential Presidential candidates for the Democrats. We are at least a year away from any meaningful predictions as to who will be in the finals!

[hexola]

4. With no one to juxtapose her to - can't make meaningful predictions.

But - Compared to Trump...sure!

[TeamPooka]

5. It's easy to look like you're leading a one person race.

[sellitman]

6. I'm glad she is in the race.

Her message can only help the platform going forward no matter who wins the primary.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

28. You and me both!!

Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!!

[Cicada]

7. I think she's killer bee

[bigtree]

13. interesting thought

...but I think all candidates will be smart enough to read the landscape which is decidedly, successively more progressive for Democrats this political season.

There's not going to be much daylight to be had between them.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

29. That would be awesome... the more progressives candidates we have in the race this time, the better!

[MrsCoffee]

8. I'm so glad she got the jump on Bernie.

Now according to his own qualifier, he can announce he isn’t running.

She is wicked smart. She co-signed Medicare for All. She has a debt free college plan. She wants to tax the rich. She has been championing women’s rights.

Warren can unite the party in ways Sanders could never imagine. I hope we never have to hear about “identity politics” again.

[Adrahil]

12. I'm not convinced she will do well long term....

.... but I'll take her over Bernie any day of the week.

[TomCADem]

16. Russia's Progressive Wing Has Already Been Attacking Warren from the Left

Complete with calls earlier for Jill Stein, Jill Stein of all people, to primary Elizabeth Warren because she was the usual alphabet soup of catchy labels. Seriously, if you are drawing support or supporting Jill Stein, Cornel West or Susan Sarandon, then you are not doing progressives any favors.

[MrsCoffee]

17. What the...

Jill Stein?

That’s just mind boggling idiocracy.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

30. If Bernie defers to Elizabeth and chooses not to run, I'd be fine with that...

We could use a female candidate like Elizabeth, who proudly represents the progressive agenda, and who is unafraid to fight the Evildoer-in-Chief one on one.

[calguy]

9. I'll wait twelve months

Before I make an assessment of who might or might not be able to run away with the nomination.

[sunonmars]

10. Wait til other campaigns kick into gear and she gets scrutinized further, For me, its Bidens to lose

[still_one]

14. I agree. We will see what happens, but I think the experience of Biden brings a lot of stability

that the whole country would embrace, along with his VP service with a very popular President.

I think Biden can capture blue, some red, and purple states, and unless we have a candidate who can win some purple and red states, I think it will be an uphill battle.

[TheFarseer]

32. I really hope

People will wait to see who’s running before settling on Biden. We could do worse but we could definitely get someone more progressive and still highly electable.

[Adrahil]

11. We'll see.

I personally doubt it, but we'll see how she does on the stump.


One thing is for sure.... if she is seen as cutting in to Bernie's share (and she will... ) then expect some mud slung at her from some of his supporters.

[MrsCoffee]

15. Read a Vanity Fair article that makes that point about cutting into his share.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/01/why-bernie-sanders-and-elizabeth-warren-are-the-closest-of-frenemies

But for Warren and Sanders, the game is inevitable. They know that their similarities in age, race, home region, and on issues mean they would be competing for a similar segment of the primary vote, and risk canceling one another out. That calculation is one reason why Warren jumped in early, declaring her candidacy in a compelling video released on New Year’s Eve and following it up with a campaign swing through Iowa this weekend. Behind the scenes, Warren has also made moves that could weaken Sanders—including hiring Brendan Summers, the ace Iowa-caucus operative who ran Sanders’s state operation in 2016.

[Pope George Ringo II]

19. The Bernie angle is the biggest question mark I have with predicting her success.

I agree she overlaps with BS more than most other potential candidates. Either she's going to perform a public service, take one for the team, and split voters with BS so that neither of them go anywhere in the primaries; or she's going to decisively beat him down and really pull together a campaign for the ages that's going to carry her all the way to the White House.

I only get to vote for her in one of those scenarios, but I'll certainly develop fondness for her either way.

[TheFarseer]

20. I really doubt it

You really think big donors want her? No way they dont at least try to hold up an alternative.

[uponit7771]

25. After Beto and Sanders big donors aren't the queen maker they used to be. Matter of fact if I

... was a bundler I'd wait to see who was getting the most small donors and go to them

[Qutzupalotl]

21. Certainly her message could.

Whoever wins the nomination will probably have to adopt at least some of her ideas. They’re good ideas, like the lifetime ban on lobbying for members of Congress.

Republicans are terrified of Warren becoming the nominee, because she puts the lie to all their policies. She knows trickle-down doesn’t work, and can deftly prove it.

Right now Biden leads polls, and he would be formidable; foreign policy cred and fairly similar domestic agenda to Sanders and Warren. If he had run in 2016, I think he’d be the President now. Biden/Warren would trounce any Republican ticket.

[uponit7771]

24. +1, at minimum it was smart of her to get out first and frame the conversation

[uponit7771]

22. K&R, But Her Emails !! ... o wait ... ;)

[oberliner]

23. I think she has next to no chance of winning the nomination

Although I do like her a lot.

[TheFarseer]

33. Just curious why you think that

I think it will be an uphill climb too fwiw my apologies if you’ve already said why a billion times somewhere else.

[oberliner]

34. She got 3 percent in a recent CNN poll

I don't see her bypassing Biden, Sanders, Harris, Booker, etc.

Not to mention "new faces" like O'Rourke and other potential surprise entries.

I know we are a long way out, but that is my feeling about it.

[Quixote1818]

36. Sanders would need to not run and throw his weight behind her

If not then she has no shot. If he does then she picks up a huge voting block instantly as the others will be splitting the more moderate vote.

[Quixote1818]

26. It's possible. She is like the best of Bernie and Hillary all rolled up into one person.

She has the progressive base behind her right now as she is known as someone who stands up to the power brokers and bankers and after the MSM drew a HUGE amount of attention to Sanders questioning if Beto was liberal enough, a lot of progressives got nervous about Beto. I am guessing Sanders may have done that for Warren's benefit because they are friends and I am thinking he isn't planning on running. She also has the name recognition as being established, experienced, capable and qualified. Last but not least, I think people trust her and she isn't flashy which could be a benefit this cycle. She may be the perfect contrast to Trump as people often go the complete opposite direction of a failed President.

[SKKY]

35. Which is why we have a process...

...and we will let that process play out rather than ordain someone the nominee before the stage is set.

[Fiendish Thingy]

38. She's going to need a social media specialist before this is done...

Trump's social media manger in 2016 is now running his whole 2020 campaign.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

39. I would vote for E.W.

Will wait to see what happens, though.