Another reason I think Bernie will have a tough row to hoe if he runs

[EffieBlack]

Bernie Sanders faces lots of obstacles if he runs in the 2020 primaries. But I think the most serious is that he doesn't appear to have built up any additional support since his last race, a race he lost.

Although this poll I took last night is non-scientific, it does reflect what I think to be the case: while many people who supported Bernie in 2016 won't support him this time around, few, if any, voters who DIDN'T support him in 2016 will vote for him this time. In other words, his support has drained.

So, if Bernie couldn't get enough votes in 2016 to secure the nomination (he didn't even come close), many of those voters have walked away from him, and new voters haven't made up the slack, why would he think he can win the nomination?

If there's no path to victory, what's his end game?

[we can do it]

1. Ego tripping.

[qazplm135]

2. It takes ego to run for president

Not surprising he thinks he can win...but I would be surprised if he finishes top three.

[DownriverDem]

50. Why I didn't vote for Bernie in 2016 &

won't now is very simple: Bernie is not a member of the Democratic Party. He needs to go away.

[luvtheGWN]

59. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but

I thought the only reason he was allowed to run as a Democrat in the primaries was because the Party was concerned that he'd run as an Independent and drain votes away from Hillary. Isn't there a solid chance that he might run as an Independent this time?

[GemDigger]

109. And when he joined the dems he drained votes away from Hillary.

IF he wants to run, at least run in his own party. At least that way we will know what we are looking at. His voting record in multiple areas do not impress me. He has done some good but he has failed in a lot of areas (my opinion).

[WhiskeyGrinder]

3. "If there's no path to victory, what's his end game?"

[oberliner]

4. Bernie tops progressive straw poll

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) tops the first 2020 straw poll by the progressive political action committee Democracy for America by a wide margin, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas).

...

Leading the field was Sanders, with 36 percent support. He was followed by Biden at 15 percent and O’Rourke at 12 percent. Warren and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), received 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively. No other potential candidate received more than 4 percent.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/18/bernie-sanders-straw-poll-2020-elections-1067867

The straw poll was taken a little over month ago.

[EffieBlack]

7. I'm not talking about a straw poll

I'm talking about the fact that it seems that few, if any, people who voted for Bernie in 2016 plan to vote for him in 2020.

Do you know anyone who didn't vote for him before who plan to vote for him this time around? I don't. But I know plenty of people who did vote for him before who wouldn't vote for him this time.

Edited: Your straw poll actually helps to prove my point. Bernie got 43% of the votes in the 2016 primaries, but pulls only 36% in the straw poll, suggesting that a significant drain in his support - and that's before several other people who would attract support from him were factored in.

[oberliner]

9. Aren't you drawing conclusions based on the results of your DU straw poll?

I was just sharing that DFA straw poll because I think it is at least as representative as the DU straw poll you took, and it shows Bernie as the most popular candidate among those polled by a wide margin.

Among the people I know, most are focused on making sure Trump is defeated and are still evaluating the various Democratic primary candidates to see who would have the best chance of doing so.

I don't really know anyone who is a definite "no" or a definite "yes" on Bernie at this point.

[EffieBlack]

10. Oh, come on, Boo -

Yes, it's a straw poll. But I asked a completely different question.

Try to keep up, babe.

[oberliner]

35. Understood

I am just suggesting that he may have more support than it may seem from your DU poll.

[Hortensis]

60. He may. But if another candidate pulls more people away from

our mainstream Democratic primary candidates, I'm guessing Russia and the Republicans will shift more of their support to that person. Not all, of course. Sanders will still be a national figure.

As for Effie's question about Sanders' end game, he is a true believer in himself and may still hope he can become president. The most realistic and probable reason I tentatively ascribe his running to, though, is that he merely still hopes/intends to influence policy and, if he loses his followers to someone else, help decide who that person will be.

Of course, since the next president will be either the Democratic or Republican nominee, the most generous motive would be that he realizes that it's critical for the farther left to be lead by someone who will help them commit to electing the Democratic candidate. I only hope rather than expect that's likely, though. His behaviors seem to be the same as they always were.



That is NOT our Democratic Foreign Relations Committee chair, Jim Risch, whom Senator Risch Senator Sanders is standing next to, but rather Republican Senator Mike Lee, and the statement he's endorsing is, very unfortunately, not any our own Democratic Party statements on Yemen or Saudi Arabia.

THIS kind of thing, btw, is why he can't possibly win, no matter how he goes about trying to build a foreign affairs resume. A lot more voters know him now.

[jmowreader]

95. Jim Risch is no Democrat

He’s foreign relations committee chairman, but he’s an extremist Republican - the only kind that Idaho will elect.

[Hortensis]

108. Whoops, big brain fart! Boy, was our Dem. ranking member BOB MENENDEZ angry

when I-Sanders chose to stage his own publicity event with Lee, instead of uniting with Democratic senators in their stand. Even as the minority party, our Democratic senators have more power standing together than I-Sanders could ever have alone. But he has to know that very well.

[kstewart33]

30. Effie, you raise a good point.

To be competitive, he needs support from people who did not support him in 2016.

He's not getting it, largely because:

1) he's not a Democrat - he refuses to join the party he wants to lead;

2) too many Democrats believe he was a factor in Clinton's loss;

3) he's having trouble differentiating himself from some other candidates who share his views on some key issues;

4) this time around, the media won't give him the time and attention as they did in 2016 in part because there are so many candidates;

5) his problems with minorities continue;

6) his refusal to provide several years worth of income tax returns;

7) his past votes on gun control; and

8) his age.

We can debate the quality of straw polls, but so far, any substantial signs of a resurgence aren't there.

[dogman]

37. Some new voters like my grandson and his friends will.

They don't show in many polls at all.

[relayerbob]

51. Unfortunately, most oyung voters

don't show up *at* the polls, either

[obamanut2012]

11. wut?

[oberliner]

38. He still seems to have a lot of support among progressives in the party

[Cha]

104. And, he's lost a lot.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

13. Ohhhh, now I see Bernie's end game... to win!!! Thanks for opening our eyes!!!

[oberliner]

39. You're welcome!

[George II]

65. DFA only polled their own members:

"From Nov. 29 - Dec. 13th, 2018, Democracy for America members voted for up to three favorite potential candidates in DFA's first 2020 Presidential Pulse Poll."

[Trumpocalypse]

102. It should be noted that this was a straw poll of

Democracy for America members, a PAC that endorsed Sanders in 16 and is headquartered in Vermont. So it is in no way representative for Democratic party primary voters.

[karynnj]

114. A straw poll of DFA members, 88 percent voted to have DFA endorse him for 2016

Like the op poll, he has lost considerable support from 2016 when it was after O'Malley dropped out a 2 person race.

[milestogo]

5. This poll suggests he may have a tough time with DUers

and says nothing about the rest of the voting universe.

[EffieBlack]

8. Of course - it's a DU poll

But considering DU is full of people who voted for Bernie in 2016, it's very instructive. I don't know of a single person - either on DU or in the real world - who didn't vote for Bernie in 2016 who would vote for him now. Do you? I DO know lots of people who voted for him in 2016 who won't vote for him now.

Of course none of this is scientific. But unless you've found a scientific poll that asks this particular question, all I can go with is my own observations.

[aikoaiko]

19. I wouldn't say DU is full of people who voted for Bernie in 2016 anymore. It was once, but not now.

I'm not declaring my vote yet because I'm open to all, but I could definitely vote for Bernie depending on how the other candidates conduct themselves. His national numbers are pretty good for now (mostly based on people knowing him and his record and not so much the newcomers). The newcomers could easily gain on him.

Really, there is no path to victory except for one candidate, but even if it is true that Bernie is uniquely burdened with not getting the nomination, there is always his ability to draw attention to issues.

Plus, when Bernie says any Democrat is better than any Republican as he did in 2016 it brings the disaffected to the voting both. Not all of them, but percentage wise we saw that Bernie supporters came out a little bit better for HRC compared the previous post-primary election. Bernie is uniquely positioned to convince independents who might not vote to vote for the Democratic candidate.

[Arazi]

36. Agreed. DU has a lot less Bernie supporters left anymore

This poll is not a good sample

[David__77]

92. A lot less indeed.

I voted for Sanders and may do so again. Too early for me. I didn’t commit to vote for Sanders until just before I did so.

[John Fante]

48. Independent Bernie lost by nearly 4 million votes last time

and only carried one of the 10 most populous states. His favorables are certainly lower now, and if they aren't, they will be when his "women and minorities are token candidates" rants become part of the national consciousness. Not to mention his failure to vote against Russian sanctions every g-damn time.

At best, he'll revive the online Bernie Buster Bots (and we all know how helpful they were to the cause last time). Winning the nomination is not feasible.

[Cha]

105. I see the same thing on twitter.. very

encouraging.

[Kurt V.]

6. occam's razor. when sanders ran in 2016 nobody thought he would be runner up,

Including sanders. but he was. Its a natural inclination for one to think if i did this or that different, i could win.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

15. Yes & he started with almost ZERO name recognition. Now he will start off with high poll numbers...

should he decide to run. Based on that AND the consistent progressive policy positions he's held for decades, it's now Bernie's turn to take a second shot at the Democratic nomination, just like Hillary rightfully did after she lost the first time. It's called DEMOCRACY... we need to embrace it!!

[Autumn]

21. Agree, this time he has name recognition and a email donation list.

[BannonsLiver]

99. I'm not sure the name recognition is a benefit at this point.

[BlueStater]

22. There were barely any other candidates to choose from besides him and Hillary.

And he still got trounced by her overall.

[Kurt V.]

25. 6 i believe. we wont have that problem this time.

[dlk]

12. It's All About the Math

If someone can’t win a primary, they can’t win a general. To believe otherwise is magical thinking. Once again, Sanders would siphon off votes from the Democratic nominee and ensure a Trump win.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

17. Glad Hillary didn't listen to your advice... and then she went on to beat the Dotard.

[dlk]

111. Hillary Won the Primary

I don’t understand your reply.

[Autumn]

20. So far 8 Democrats have announced they will run for President. Only Bernie will siphon

off votes from the Democratic nominee should he run in the primary and assure a Trump win ? What about the other 8 announced plus a few more since only 1 will be the nominee?

That's what I call magical thinking.

[EffieBlack]

23. You've completely missed my point. I didn't say anything of the sort

My point is that, despite his high, close to universal name recognition and a four year head start, Bernie HASN'T siphoned off any support. There's no indication that anyone who didn't vote for him in 2016 will vote for him now. In fact, instead of pulling support from other candidates, he's bleeding support from his own ranks.

And so far he has offered me nothing new that would make anyone say "You know, I never supported Bernie Sanders before, but now that he's saying x y and z, I've changed my mind and I'll get behind him."

[Autumn]

34. I didn't say you said anything of the sort. That post was not to you, it was a response to another

poster who claimed that Bernie running would siphon off support for the nominee. Of course no one on DU who wouldn't vote for him last time still won't vote for him again. You know that DU is not representative of his support just as people on Twitter who hate him are not representative of him bleeding support as you claim.

This is my post which was not a response to you.

Autumn (32,879 posts)

20. So far 8 Democrats have announced they will run for President. Only Bernie will siphon
off votes from the Democratic nominee should he run in the primary and assure a Trump win ? What about the other 8 announced plus a few more since only 1 will be the nominee?

That's what I call magical thinking.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

24. As usual Autumn, you get right to the heart of it... it truly is laughable!!

[cwydro]

42. Why doesn't he run in his own party?

Curious.

[Autumn]

55. If he ran as an Independent the Democrat on the ticket would lose votes.

Young people who will vote for him do not have the loyalty to the Democratic party that older voters do.

[cwydro]

63. The young people who never show up to vote at all?

Lol.

Like Bernie gives a rat’s ass about the Democratic Party.

[Autumn]

66. You sure about that?

YOUNG ADULTS MOTIVATED by social issues and dissatisfied with the Trump administration turned out in record numbers to vote in the 2018 midterms and backed Democratic candidates by historic margins, initial analysis shows.

Thirty-one percent of voters aged 18 to 29 cast ballots in the 2018 midterm elections, shattering turnout rates from the past quarter century, according to an estimate by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University. This year's turnout was at least 10 percent higher than for the 2014 midterms, according to the center's estimates.

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2018-11-07/young-voters-turned-out-in-historic-numbers-early-estimates-show

[cwydro]

68. Meh. Far more older voters turn out.

Bernie is history.

[Autumn]

69. Bernie might be history but we older voters won't live forever, the smart thing

to do is court them not ignore them because of their youth. There does seem to be a lot of contempt for young voters and young politicians and that's rather sad.

[cwydro]

77. We can agree on that.

I’m only have contempt toward those who don’t vote.

And I’m all for young politicians! (Though I fervently hope for no more dentist videos!)

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

112. Guess I misunderstood what you were sayin.

[Autumn]

14. So 78 of the people on DU who wouldn't vote for him last time still won't vote for him again.

Yeah, he's in deep trouble.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

16. hahaha!! good one!!

[EffieBlack]

26. And not one person said they didn't vote for him before but would vote for him now

Of course, you can dismiss the opinions of 78 people as irrelevant - a pretty amusing take given your propensity to offer your opinion whenever you see fit (including several times just in this thread), apparently assuming that what YOU have to say matters.

[yardwork]

33. We'll see what the voters have to say.

Even if the Democratic Party allows Bernie to run as a Democrat, he has no path to victory.

Bernie might do well in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, but he will do far worse in the south than he did last time - and he was trounced last time.

He won't release his tax returns so he can't be on the ballots in several states. Full stop.

[Autumn]

40. And in your poll you got 10 people who supported him last time and will support him again.

You are dismissing the fact that some people, like me and others didn't take your poll. I didn't dismiss those 78 people as irrelevant, I said those 78 people didn't vote for him last time and won't vote for him again. Not a big drop in support there.

[yardwork]

43. I think you're overlooking the logic in Effie's post.

In order for a candidate who lost last time to win this time, they must add a net number of supporters.

[Autumn]

49. No I'm really not. DU has few Sanders supporters and some of them ignore

any posts about him to avoid the arguments. Bernie has support apart from DU . The people who don't support Bernie on DU are basically the same people who never supported him.

[Cha]

100. I see a lot of Good News on Twitter posts..

saying.. they're "over BS". Especially when he was quoted trying to marginalize Black, White, Gay, Latino or Women Candidates..

Bernie: ‘My Opponents’ Want Black, White, Gay, Latino or Women Candidates ‘Regardless of What They Stand For’

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=11722251

Link to tweet

[vsrazdem]

79. I didn't even see this poll, so I never even voted in it and I am sure there are others.

[mcar]

18. In his own bubble of support,

he perhaps doesn't see the reality.

[yardwork]

27. His game is the same as before.

[Cha]

107. right.. same ol same ol

[ecstatic]

28. His end game? To not be exposed?

His unholy alliance with the NRA (who we now know takes millions from Russia) has kept his career afloat for decades. Follow the money and his votes on sanctions and guns. If Putin says to run, Bernie will run...or else...

[dhol82]

29. Has he joined the Democratic Party yet?

Or is he going to run as an independent?

[oberliner]

31. He is going to run as a Democrat

Just like last time.

[dhol82]

32. Then when will he change his affiliation?

I don’t think the DNC wants him.

[EffieBlack]

45. Trump ran as a Democrat?

And FYI, the DNC didn't fail. Trump cheated ... And too many "I'm too pure to vote for Hillary" Democrats failed the country.

[Hortensis]

115. Roughly 77% of Sanders' voters did not vote for

the candidate with the most progressive plans to advance this nation since the New Deal. This is very pertinent to 2020, of course, because he's running on the same messages and attempting to draw the same people.

12% specifically voted for the party that promised to roll back the New Deal and civil rights to the 19th century, i.e., the Republican Party, whose attitude toward science and climate change, of course, is more Dark-Ages, pre- Age of Reason.

Link to tweet

None of this has a thing to do with the DNC. Their failure to vote for progressive ideals is squarely on those voters. Interestingly, those self-claimed progressives who voted against the one candidate who could protect and advance progressive government -- our Democratic candidate -- did so in large percentages. Only about 2-3% refused to vote at all.

Climate change is an urgent threat and a defining challenge of our time. It threatens our economy, our national security, and our children’s health and futures. We can tackle it by making America the world’s clean energy superpower and creating millions of good-paying jobs, taking bold steps to slash carbon pollution at home and around the world, and ensuring no Americans are left out or left behind as we rapidly build a clean energy economy. ~ HRC 2016

[2naSalit]

44. Reminds me of Beetlejuice...

if you keep saying his name, he shows up.

[nolabear]

46. This is petty af but thanks for "row to hoe."

Pegs me as getting a bit old and irritable but all the mistaken versions of it give me the epizootic (as my grandmother would say).

And I think you’re right. His base has been whittled by some more viable, less one dimensional and guru-ish progressives.

[dhol82]

110. I always love it when someone uses the correct phrase

[democratisphere]

47. IMO Bernie is a candidate from Elections past who was unsuccessful

in being the Presidential Candidate nominee.
Time for experienced new candidates with wisdom.

[safeinOhio]

54. Yep that horse died a long time ago, but

Russian bots are are still holding a whip to stir us up. Ignore him a let the primaries take care of it.

[democratisphere]

76. Agreed. Primaries without the influence of Russian controlled

fakebook and Twitter-Sh'tter.

[George II]

52. He's going to have to OPENLY and explicitly address the misogynist climate in his last campaign...

....not just say "I'm sorry and will do better" (paraphrase) He'll then have to follow up with clear steps taken to make sure that the "predatory culture" of "sexual violence and harassment" in his campaign does not occur again.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/30/bernie-sanders-campaign-harassment-1077014

On top of this, he will have to release those tax returns. He's got lots of time between now and the beginning of the campaign. No more "when we can, we're busy right now"

He's got a lot of work to do to become a viable candidate next year.

[dsc]

53. He clearly has lost support according to most polls

but this won't be a two person race for quite some time in all likelihood. Unlike the GOP our primaries are proportional so non winners who can get over 15% of the vote will still get delegates. A candidate who can win primaries or caucuses in one or more regions and get delegates from the other places can pull out a win if the race stays multiple candidates instead of just two.

[NewJeffCT]

56. I think Sanders has a shot

Even if he gets 75% of the vote he received before, the Clinton vote and the 25% that left Sanders is going to be divided between Harris, Warren, Klobuchar, Brown, Booker and whoever else decides to run. Democrats would need Warren and others to get some votes from the 75% that are sticking with Sanders. Maybe O'Rourke could get some of the young/college student vote?

[catbyte]

57. How he uses the Democratic party doesn't set well with me. I don't like what he does in Vermont.

Even though the Vermont Democratic party says they're just fine with it, it seems to me to be opportunistic and a little sleazy. He runs as a Democrat in the primary to prevent an actual Democrat from running then refuses the nomination once he gets it. Yeah, yeah, I know. It could split the vote, allowing a republican to win, but I still don't like it. Angus King manages just fine in Maine without that bait-and-switch. He's like a squatter. It just strikes me as dishonest.

He did something similar in 2016, running as a Democrat then dumping the party the minute he lost the nomination to Clinton. It's really turned me off.

[FakeNoose]

58. I'll admit I'm one who really hopes Bernie doesn't run

All due props to Bernie, he's very effective in the Senate. But he doesn't lead our Party, and he wasn't a successful candidate in 2016. We need to look elsewhere. Thanks for your service Bernie Sanders, but you don't speak for the Democratic Party.

[murielm99]

88. I don't see that he is even

all that effective in the Senate. What has he done there that is so great?

I realize he has a following here, and gets reelected in his home state, but it is someone else's time to run for President.

[Vinca]

61. There is the perfect time for candidates to run and Bernie's was the last election.

Now the candidates with the perfect time are younger and more diverse. I've always liked Bernie and I've always thought he could have beaten Trump in the general election, but he should sit this one out.

[BeyondGeography]

73. He filled a pretty big ideological void last time

His vociferous critics here can’t bring themselves to admit that. If Warren had challenged HRC, I’m pretty sure Bernie would have stayed on the sidelines. It was only when it became clear that no one was challenging Hillary from the left that he jumped in. He can try again, but Warren is a more credible and compelling choice for a lot of people who swung his way last time.

[murielm99]

90. I am not seeing that, either.

Everything he said was part of the Democratic platform, if anyone had bothered to check it. They were too busy worrying about emails instead.

[BeyondGeography]

93. Ah yes, the platform argument

Right on cue.

[murielm99]

94. Are you saying that is not true?

Why such condescension?

[Donkey king kong]

62. Blowin In The Wind

He has always been a non
team player. Please go away.

[JCanete]

64. You just used a DU polll of like 123 people to make your assesment here? Okay...

It remains the case that Sanders wasn't a household name until fairly late in the campaign last primary. It has become the case that his popularity among democrats is very high. Also, this time around there is no obvoius frount-runner with all the momentum of inevitability at her back.

That said, its also true that the field is way larger, and that Sanders won't be the only lefty in it if he declares. He and Warren will likely split votes. Ojeta though, is already out so his relatively small impact potential is gone, and Gabbard appears to have made the incomprehensible move of attempting to appeal to the confused middle of the country who might accept a statement about both sides being intractable(say what Gabbard...that has not been the left's problem with our party in the past), so that's not gong to get her anywhere in the primary.

But then the rest of the field will absolutely be splitting their votes. Whether Gillibrand, Booker(running?) or Harris can pull in some of those Sanders lefties given their overtures to the Sanders voters in their platforms remains to be seen, but we know there are at least 33 of them that are ripe for the picking. Snark aside though, sure, its hard to recapture lightning in a bottle. Sanders isn't going to have a machine behind him, so if small donors don't come out again for his campaign given that he's no longer an exciting emerging phenomenon this time around, he'll struggle. He's not going to be promoted daily by the media, so he will live and stall by however many people can still afford to and still have excitement and expectations enough to donate.

[NurseJackie]

78. No it hasn't... No it's not.

It has become the case that his popularity among democrats is very high.

No it hasn't... No it's not. That's a myth based on misrepresentation of self-selecting online polls, Vermont-only constituent surveys, and other unreliable and scientifically inaccurate vanity polls. It has no basis in reality and everyone knows it. All I'm saying is that it's just the normal and typical overly-optimistic "happy talk" that's being put out by a campaign (and supporters) to create an illusion, or a myth, of momentum and inevitability. Everyone does it. Nothing illegal about it or anything... but it is what it is, and nothing more.

[JCanete]

81. that's not true. There are absolutley landline polls in the mix. Where did you get your notion? nt

[NurseJackie]

82. Okay... there are landline polls "in the mix" ... sure. Go with that!

There are absolutley landline polls in the mix.

Okay... there are landline polls "in the mix" ... sure. Go with that!

[JCanete]

85. I did. your counter is emogies. They aren't the best substitute for words. nt

[NurseJackie]

87. Aw.

I did.

And it changes nothing. The myth of massive popularity and momentum and inevitability is just that: a myth. It's a gimmick to sell the candidate and to draw attention. Try not to take it too seriously. I certainly don't.

your counter is emogies.

Aw.

They aren't the best substitute for words.

Yet my point was still clear and understood. I know it must be very disappointing, but rest assured that every post that I respond to is given the exact amount of effort that it deserves. Nothing more.

[JCanete]

89. Yeah, keep telling yourself that. I'm sure you've got all the factual ammunition in the world...you

just like to keep your powder dry.

[NurseJackie]

91. It's not about me.

Yeah, keep telling yourself that.

It's not about me.

I'm sure you've got all the factual ammunition in the world...

I do.

you just like to keep your powder dry.

Why spend time meticulously debunking things that are obviously false? What a waste of time that is! It's just easier to point out the absurdity. People are smart enough to arrive at their own conclusions without my having to spoon-feed them.



I know how to keep my boots clean too. And I know how to avoid traps and set-ups. I'm no fool. Don't treat me like one.

[JCanete]

96. feel free to pm me your facts....

[NurseJackie]

97. I'll get right on that. Stand by.

feel free to pm me your facts....

I'll get right on that. Stand by.

[JCanete]

101. hahaha...yeah, we can both laugh about that one, can't we. nt

[disillusioned73]

117. It's like citing a DailKos poll on MSNBC..

oh, that's right - they did do that... lol

[redgreenandblue]

67. Most online spaces, and especially DU, are populated by highly self-selected groups.

The screenshot that you showed only reflects the fact that most people who will vote for Bernie no longer post on DU.

I think Skinner pointed out that the 2016 primaries were about 90-10 for Bernie on DU at the time. That doesn't square with the total numbers in your screenshot.

The overwhelming majority of voters are what I would refer to as "retail voters": They lean in some direction, maybe even strongly so, but don't feel compelled to voice their opinions all over the internet, especially not in highly partisan forums such as DU. They are not activists. But they are the ones who decide the outcome of every election. And for them name recognition and "looking as if you could win" are major factors.

The problem with online spaces and polls are that a comparatively small number of people, such as say 1000, can appear as if they were a massive force. But in a country of 300 million they are a negligible number. That is why I am highly suspect of anything that "generates enthusiasm on Twitter" and the like.

Bernie has a "following" of hardcore, vocal, haters, for sure. How relevant they are in the broader scope of things remain to be seen. Bernie's biggest "problem demographic" remains old white males. One a quantitative level, they are the ones who like him the least.

[chwaliszewski]

70. Big question...

If Bernie somehow got the Democratic nomination and went against Trump, could he beat him?

[tonedevil]

83. Isn't that question relevant...

no matter who the candidate is?

[guillaumeb]

71. This assumes that a DU poll is in any way representative

of the larger electorate.

Perhaps his end game is to change the terms of the debate over policy, and what is considered achievable.

[haydukelives]

72. solid evidence

1 DU poll.

[IronLionZion]

74. Bernie could go after the rust belt states that Trump stole from Dems

and bring back enough of those voters for Trump to lose to whoever our party nominates. I doubt Bernie is trying to win the nomination, just wants to get his socialist platform out there and give Trump voters a less racist alternative.

There is a place in our party for socialists. We don't want them going third party. It wasn't too long ago when DUers attacked pretty much every Dem as being not liberal enough.

[Politicub]

75. The Bernie/Hillary wars ripped DU apart. I hope that doesn't happen again.

I stopped coming to DU because it was so toxic.

And for that reason alone, I would prefer that Bernie not run again. There's more potential for chaos than unity. Plus, there are democrats who have thrown their hat into the ring for the primaries who are more qualified.

[Blue_playwright]

80. Help define the narrative

If nothing else, he can help define the narrative and perhaps nudge the Dems away from being so moderate.

But he is far from my first choice. I don’t wantHillary to run either - and I’m going to take flack for this but it’s the age issue. I have folks in my life that are late 70s and even if they are robust I know that things can take them down more easily. It worries me. He’d have to get a younger and fucking amazing running mate in the mix sooner than normal for me to feel really confident voting for him.

But Kansas has a freaking caucus that takes hours and usually falls during the work day so I assume I won’t get my voice heard yet again anyway.

[PatrickforO]

84. Interesting. I am in the second category.

I think we need some different people. It's going to be a crowded field at first. I just posted an issues summary of Kamala Harris, and like Warren, Booker, and of course, Beto.

Honestly, I've never been that excited about Biden, though he is a good guy. I guess people change, but those Anita Hill hearings...well, Joe didn't look very good in those. He was a good VP though.

During the primary, I will be doing in-depth research on each candidate, picking the one or ones I feel would best represent the interests of my grandchildren, my children and myself in that order, and then will support that person with my usual passion.

However...if this yellow dog turns out to be the nominee, I will a) support, b) donate to, c) volunteer for and d)vote for him.

Remember what Obama told us before the world moved on. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good!

[Tom Rinaldo]

86. I do think his path through the primaries is more difficult this year

But a direct linear projection of his potential support this time compared to last time based on the factors you raise is flawed at this stage. It's not the same path, so different variables could give him a different ultimate opening.Potential and current candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown, and even Kamala Harris for example may help drive a campaign narrative and message that resembles (to many ears at least) aspects of Sanders platform. Should they stumble for any reason they could end up plowing the ideological field for Bernie.

We are a year away from the first primary. That is number one and most important. There is an aspect of human nature at play, especially at this stage, which can be called "People like to fall in love." Many are drawn to something new and different partially because it is new and different. It is easier to project your hopes onto a relatively blank slate than onto one where many of the blanks have already been filled in.

It makes sense to me that those who chose not to support Sanders in 2016 after it became a two person race, would see little to no reason to do so at this stage this time around when the political landscape is littered with other real or potential candidates. The test for Sanders is whether he still has s solid, even if smaller, base of supporters who remain loyal to him and can carry him through the crowded early stages of the nomination race. When candidates begin to drop out, from lack of oxygen, lack of money, lack of excitement, various missteps along the way, and the lack of high finishes in actual primaries, a lot of people will need to reevaluate the field because the candidate who had excited them a year out is no longer in the race. And virtually everyone by that stage will have been dinged to various extents. Bernie starts out already dinged, but the playing field in that regard will begin to level out as the hard core competition is joined.

When i said above that people are drawn to something "new" and "different" I do not mean to suggest that those "new" potential candidates lack depth and real substance. Some may in retrospect seem like flashes in the pan, but others may be our leaders of a rapidly approaching tomorrow. It's way too soon to be sure. Sanders has a reasonably good reason to believe that he starts out among the top four or so candidates in a very large field, and that his fundraising ability will keep his profile high while many will be hard put to stay front and center. Assuming that Sanders runs, we will find out if your premise is correct after some of the now exciting prospects for the nomination begin to fall by the wayside. Will he begin to gain support then or will he stay plateaued out?

[Blue_true]

113. Bernie has several big headwind issues.

He will get vetted this time. He has the tax return issue, not releasing them won't be an option this time. He has the issue of how female staffers were treated in his 2016 campaign. He has candidates like Senator Warren who is a better fit for many of his 2016 supporters than he is.

My sense is that a large field helps candidates like Gillibrand, because there is going to be a core of support for them that is significant. If such a candidate has enough money to stay in a fractured field, the candidates could end up with a solid delegate count once the shakeout is done.

Of course, a candidate like Senator Harris has the capacity to lap the field fast.

[jmowreader]

98. Add in Bernie's primary problem

Bernie does well in caucuses, where his true believers can bully the crowd into supporting Bernie. He might do okay in open primaries, where Republicans can take D ballots and vote for Bernie. But in closed primaries, Bernie gets stomped. And in the general, where the Republicans who stuck us with Bernie can also vote for Trump, he’ll get stomped.

What could be entertaining, though, is seeing what would happen if our non-Bernie candidate had “investigate and imprison Donald Trump and his family” as a campaign plank.

[YOHABLO]

103. No it's not scientific and holds no water. Why even post it?

[andym]

106. DU is not representative of the Democratic electorate

because only a subset of the most avid Democrats post here, so a DU poll is not too informative. That said, I don't think Bernie has much of a chance to win the primary outright, because there are a lot of Democrats who won't support him. OTOH, he has a segment of the electorate who will consider him their first (and for some only) choice-- so he has a base of support. However, there is some chance that NO ONE wins the primary; if there are 4 or 5 top candidates splitting the vote. Then Bernie would have some chance to actually win at the convention, although typically a moderate consensus choice would prevail. If Bernie won, there is probably even a greater chance for a potential independent campaign from Democrat Howard Schultz, Starbucks CEO.

[Blue_Tires]

116. Bernie will have a damn near impossible time trying to win

1. The preliminary field is much, much bigger...

2. There's no Hillary Clinton in the race he can play ideological "anti-matter" to, and there's no "Anybody but Clinton" -voters to get a boost off of.

3. We're still waiting on his tax returns.

4. The preliminary field is also much more diverse (also geographically), VERY liberal and unlike Bernie they were criticizing Trump before it was cool. And unlike Bernie, most of the rest of the field god forbid seems *excited* and *enthusiastic* about the party.

5. As I've pointed out in countless threads, Bernie's prominent vocal and fanatical supporters on social media and in the blogosphere (What I've nicknamed as the "zoo&quot will be his undoing just as they were in 2016... The only question is will they drag the entire party down with them again...

6. We're a year from the primaries and the zoo is already alienating black voters on social media with their racial smears against Kamala.

7. Against my advice Bernie seems to be keeping the same campaign advisory structure that lost him 2016 in place.

8. Against my advice Bernie seems hellbent on keeping that long-debunked "economic anxieties not racism" -narrative alive.

9. He got away with it once, but this whole "I'm an independent except for when I'm running for President and then I join the Dems!" seems duplicitous and shamelessly opportunist. Either get your heart in or your ass out. Because why should a man run for our presidential nomination when he clearly beyond all doubt doesn't think enough of the party to be a member for the long haul?

10. A whole lot of people haven't forgotten Bernie dragging 2016 out to the bitter end and then calling the entire primary process "rigged".

11. A whole lot of people haven't forgotten all the Berners who overtly/covertly defected to Trump, including several high-profile Berners who outed themselves as Republicans all along (H.A. Goodman and Cassandra Fairbanks to name a couple).