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Mon Feb 11, 2019, 10:02 AM

Nobel-winning economist Krugman warns that a U.S. recession looms in 2019

Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says he sees a good chance of a recession hitting the U.S. within a year.

Speaking at a government summit in Dubai, the economist and highly read New York Times columnist said the likelihood of an economic slowdown hitting the U.S. was high due to sluggish growth already buffeting China and Europe. According to CNBC, Krugman said that “there was a good chance that the U.S. will have a recession late this year” or by 2020.

Krugman said the fact that policy makers, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, don’t have room to respond to a downturn also could be a factor that worsens a downturn that hits Europe and Asia and bleeds over into the U.S.

In a separate interview with Bloomberg at the same summit in Dubai, Krugman said he saw even odds of a recession.

“There seems to be an accumulation of smaller problems and the underlying backdrop is that we have no good policy response. [The] Fed can’t cut rates very much. Fiscal policy...there is in fact fiscal space, if we were prepared to use it, but it’s hard to see that this current leadership is going to respond in any nimble way. So, yeah, I’d say there’s better than even odds that we will have a recession,” Krugman told Bloomberg on Sunday.

More at https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nobel-winning-economist-krugman-warns-that-a-us-recession-looms-in-2019-2019-02-11

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Reply Nobel-winning economist Krugman warns that a U.S. recession looms in 2019 (Original post)
UpInArms Feb 2019 OP
Iliyah Feb 2019 #1
Fuzzpope Feb 2019 #2
donkeypoofed Feb 2019 #3
NewJeffCT Feb 2019 #6
MontanaFarmer Feb 2019 #4
2naSalit Feb 2019 #7
SHRED Feb 2019 #5
Achilleaze Feb 2019 #8

Response to UpInArms (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 10:07 AM

1. It's already happening. . . .

The lies coming from the present government with majority of the GOP's on board is forthtelling. Tax issues are hurting many middle class families. Food and other essential means to survive cost is steadily going up. Housing and rent prices are sky high. Global warming is getting worse, et al.

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Response to UpInArms (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 10:09 AM

2. I'm already living within one.

 

I'm down on work commissions this year by at least 60%, possibly more.

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Response to UpInArms (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 10:10 AM

3. Doesn't a recession always happen with a Rethug gov't?

Or right after one has been voted out of office? I'm pretty sure that for all their talk of fiscal restraint , it turns out that they're just bad with money.

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Response to donkeypoofed (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 10:58 AM

6. That is the recent history

the Great Recession of 2007-9 started under Bush

The 9/11 Recession under Bush was technically not a recession as it was negative growth in 2 of the last 3 quarters of 2001, but not consecutive quarters. So, the "Clinton Hangover" recession did not rise to a technical recession.

The Recession of the early 90s was under HW Bush (the Reagan Recession, or Reagan Hangover Recession )

The Reagan Recession/Great Recession (of it's time) was mid 81 to early 82 was under Reagan

The 1980 recession was under Carter, but was also mild and and Volcker raising interest rates big time helped get inflation under control and set up the growth of the 1980s.

The big recession before that was 73-75 under Nixon


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Response to UpInArms (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 10:11 AM

4. Interesting, and sobering

Quite frankly though, I have gotten weary of hearing of the "economic miracle," or the robust economic growth spoken of in the media. Trump has overheated sections of the economy with the tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, but I really question whether this economy is really working for most residents of the country. Where are the people who are achieving upward mobility right now? Is investment in personal retirement or savings up? I don't know, but it sure isn't among the people I know. I think many feel that they've been in a recession or stagnation for some time, perhaps this will help usher in the political change needed to fundamentally change how the middle class earns?

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Response to MontanaFarmer (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 11:20 AM

7. Well, I have to agree

whatever they're calling a "miracle" is not visible in this end of Montana, and I think I might be in a more economically successful area. I see a lot of businesses and individuals losing in a major way. One thing I have been seeing is that many have embraced their greed and are now facing the fact that they have overpriced themselves into a hole, and they we're not prepared for the consequences because greed follows the greedy. When you have a government creating policy and law favoring greed and wealth by ill-gotten gains, everyone will adapt to the behavior that appears to bring success in acquiring that social level.

When wealth is the ideal and money the vehicle to get there and the race is on to get there... greed is the the ethical guideline which eliminates the need for morality.

And we can see, from our front porch - for those of us lucky enough to have housing - where it has gotten us.

I'm ready, have been for decades, for major changes in how we go about governing ourselves and how we fund it. The Constitution is still valid and our lasting guidance, needs some updating in some places regarding changes in the world but the basics should never be altered. I have been adversely affected by each R administration since Nixon and I'm sick and tired of this march to destruction for the sake of restoring empires.

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Response to UpInArms (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 10:28 AM

5. Which will be blamed on the new Democratic House

Count on it.
And the television media will have debates on it as if it's true.

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Response to UpInArms (Original post)

Mon Feb 11, 2019, 11:22 AM

8. republicans are bringing America Their Ungodly #TrumpSlump(R)

It will be epic. republicans not only are excellent liars, they really know how to throw a frigging depression.

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