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Fumesucker

(45,851 posts)
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:48 AM Aug 2012

NYT: Few Voters Are Truly Up for Grabs, Research Suggests

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/17/us/politics/pursuing-the-elusive-swing-voter.html?_r=1

<snip>

About one-third of Americans describe themselves as independent voters, creating a widespread impression that a large group of Americans will provide the decisive swing votes in this year’s election. But that impression is misleading, polling experts and political scientists say.

Many self-described independents — close to half, according to surveys — reliably vote for one party or the other. And many true swing voters live in states, like California or Texas, where no analyst doubts the outcome in November.

In spite of clichés about Nascar dads and Walmart moms, the actual share of voters nationally who are up for grabs is probably between just 3 percent and 5 percent in this election, polling experts say. The Obama and Romney campaigns are expected to spend on the order of $2 billion, in part to try to sway this tiny share of the electorate.

“There’s a very small slice of people who are genuinely undecided, but it’s enough to win the presidency,” said Rich Beeson, the political director for Mr. Romney’s campaign.


The share of swing voters may even have declined in recent years, as many voters have become more reliably partisan. A report by the Pew Research Center found that self-identified Democrats are more liberal than in the past and self-identified Republicans are more conservative.


<snip>

Read the rest of the piece at the link.
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NYT: Few Voters Are Truly Up for Grabs, Research Suggests (Original Post) Fumesucker Aug 2012 OP
i said this months ago. There are few if any voters who had not decided for whom they would vote nanabugg Aug 2012 #1
Just 3 to 5 percent can make or break an election IDemo Aug 2012 #2
Yes, virtually everyone has made up their mind. HooptieWagon Aug 2012 #3
 

nanabugg

(2,198 posts)
1. i said this months ago. There are few if any voters who had not decided for whom they would vote
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:49 AM
Aug 2012

before even the GOP candidate was known.

IDemo

(16,926 posts)
2. Just 3 to 5 percent can make or break an election
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 09:54 AM
Aug 2012

It should have been obvious before this that there simply aren't as many free thinking "sensible Centrists" as some claimed. The few who may actually exist can still make all the difference, though.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
3. Yes, virtually everyone has made up their mind.
Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:06 AM
Aug 2012

Anyone still undecided at this point is pretty fucking clueless. The election will be decided not by "undecideds", but by which team does better in getting out the vote. I think the advantage there goes to Obama's ground teams.

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