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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNYT: Few Voters Are Truly Up for Grabs, Research Suggests
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/17/us/politics/pursuing-the-elusive-swing-voter.html?_r=1<snip>
About one-third of Americans describe themselves as independent voters, creating a widespread impression that a large group of Americans will provide the decisive swing votes in this years election. But that impression is misleading, polling experts and political scientists say.
Many self-described independents close to half, according to surveys reliably vote for one party or the other. And many true swing voters live in states, like California or Texas, where no analyst doubts the outcome in November.
In spite of clichés about Nascar dads and Walmart moms, the actual share of voters nationally who are up for grabs is probably between just 3 percent and 5 percent in this election, polling experts say. The Obama and Romney campaigns are expected to spend on the order of $2 billion, in part to try to sway this tiny share of the electorate.
The share of swing voters may even have declined in recent years, as many voters have become more reliably partisan. A report by the Pew Research Center found that self-identified Democrats are more liberal than in the past and self-identified Republicans are more conservative.
Many self-described independents close to half, according to surveys reliably vote for one party or the other. And many true swing voters live in states, like California or Texas, where no analyst doubts the outcome in November.
In spite of clichés about Nascar dads and Walmart moms, the actual share of voters nationally who are up for grabs is probably between just 3 percent and 5 percent in this election, polling experts say. The Obama and Romney campaigns are expected to spend on the order of $2 billion, in part to try to sway this tiny share of the electorate.
Theres a very small slice of people who are genuinely undecided, but its enough to win the presidency, said Rich Beeson, the political director for Mr. Romneys campaign.
The share of swing voters may even have declined in recent years, as many voters have become more reliably partisan. A report by the Pew Research Center found that self-identified Democrats are more liberal than in the past and self-identified Republicans are more conservative.
<snip>
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NYT: Few Voters Are Truly Up for Grabs, Research Suggests (Original Post)
Fumesucker
Aug 2012
OP
nanabugg
(2,198 posts)1. i said this months ago. There are few if any voters who had not decided for whom they would vote
before even the GOP candidate was known.
IDemo
(16,926 posts)2. Just 3 to 5 percent can make or break an election
It should have been obvious before this that there simply aren't as many free thinking "sensible Centrists" as some claimed. The few who may actually exist can still make all the difference, though.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)3. Yes, virtually everyone has made up their mind.
Anyone still undecided at this point is pretty fucking clueless. The election will be decided not by "undecideds", but by which team does better in getting out the vote. I think the advantage there goes to Obama's ground teams.