If Ds don't impeach, & tRump wins in 2020 & Ds lose the House, what then?

[stopbush]

Last edited Tue Apr 23, 2019, 11:44 PM - Edit history (2)

“The best solution is to beat tRump at the ballot box in 2020!”

Right.

And if he wins and the Rs win back the House, what is your Plan B?

[marble falls]

1. What's your plan 'b'? The process is working.

[SunSeeker]

4. How is the process working? We don't have the full Mueller Report nor any of the grand jury info.

And now Trump is telling all his aides, past and present, to not respond to House oversight subpoenas.

[marble falls]

17. Its not over, and how did executive privilege work out for RMN?

[trev]

18. Why do we have to keep reminding people

that this is no longer the world of Nixon? Nixon is totally irrelevant.

[SunSeeker]

20. Oh I know it's not over, but time is running out.

Hopefully Pelosi will use calls for impeachment from the Dem base to propel her forward.

[TwilightZone]

2. There's no basis for that assertion.

No one really knows how the electorate will react to continued investigations vs. impeachment or how they'll react to an impeachment and what would appear to be an almost-certain acquittal in the Senate. These prognostications aren't anything other than wild guesses presented as fact.

The wild-guess defeatism is, frankly, getting a little tiresome. We won in 2018 by running issues-based campaigns and not on all Trump, all the time. We need to replicate that in 2020 to win regardless of how impeachment plays out. If we insist that impeachment is all that matters for 2020, we will lose.

[SunSeeker]

7. NO ONE is running on an all-impeachment platform. Our candidates all are pushing great issues.

They are doing their jobs.

Now the House needs to do its job and commence formal impeachment investigation hearings.

[TwilightZone]

8. I'm not talking about our candidates.

I'm talking about the ridiculous OP. There is no basis for insisting as fact that not impeaching Trump is going to result in a big swing in the electorate and a loss of the House when the vast, vast, vast majority of people made up their minds about Trump YEARS ago and are unlikely to suddenly have a change of heart.

You disagree?

[SunSeeker]

13. I think by refusing to start impeachment proceedings, we could depress Dem turnout.

I'm hoping Pelosi is playing rope-a-dope with Trump with her incrementalism, making it look like Trump pushed her into impeachment, as Lawrence O'Donnell suggested tonight. But time is running out.

[Trumpocalypse]

26. Why would it depress Dem turnout?

[SunSeeker]

34. Because the Dem base wants an impeachment, and may feel their party is not listening to them.

If you feel your party is not listening to you, is not trying hard to battle Republicans and stand up to lawlessness, you may not go out of your way to vote. If they won't do something that is clearly within their power (impeachment proceedings), people may think the party can't be trusted to get even more difficult things done, like climate change, healthcare, free college. With all the voter suppression out there, our folks need to really be enthusiastic to get past all the obstacles and hours-long waits.

[uponit7771]

42. +1, and what sense does it make to leave the guy who welcomed Russian help in the last election

... as if they're not going to welcome help in the upcoming election.

That makes no sense.

Either Russia helped Red Don and ... is helping him no or they're not.

America has to defeat Trump Russia 2020 ... I'm ready to whoop some azz, not tip toe around subjects.

[Trumpocalypse]

44. So people who want Trump removed from office

would stay home and let him get re-elected. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

[SunSeeker]

49. Some people might. You need to put yourself in working parents' shoes.

Some people might not come out, of course not all, but some, and maybe just enough to help Trump win.

I know folks like you and me can't imagine not getting out to vote, especially to get rid of Trump. But think of folks working 2 jobs, with kids to get to school. They hate Trump too, but voting is an ordeal for them because of how hard Republicans have made voting. In some precincts, it involves hours-long waits. That means losing time (and pay) from work, and/or trying to find childcare for your kids while you're standing in line to vote.

Does it really make no sense to you why some of these beleaguered working parents might just pass on the whole voting ordeal?

Don't you get how some might see it as not worth the ordeal to vote if it looks like their party won't make a difference?

If their party had not at least voted to impeach Trump in the House, which is clearly within the majority Democrats' power, don't you think some people might decide to give up and go to their jobs, thinking what's the point of voting if their party can't get stuff done, that nothing will change in their lives whether they vote or not? Don't you think some people might think if Dems can't get an impeachment vote done, what can they do about much more difficult endeavors, like climate change or healthcare?

[Trumpocalypse]

50. So people who hate Trump so much

that want him impeached will not vote to remove him from office in 20. That make no sense.

[stopbush]

56. You're missing the point. It's not a matter of "hating tRump so much"

It's a matter of voting for a D in 2018 because you wanted them to put a check on tRump and then not doing what you elected them to do. At this point - considering what the Mueller Report revealed - that check means removal from office.

I can well imagine a swing voter who voted for tRump in 2016, didn't like what they saw and voted D in 2018, then stayed home in 2020 because "the Ds didn't do anything...they're all the same."

[Trumpocalypse]

59. And where is that on the list of issues

important to 2018 voters?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/244367/top-issues-voters-healthcare-economy-immigration.aspx

And it’s not that I’m missing the point. It’s that there is no logic to the point.

BTW I remember the same argument being made in 07 after Pelosi took impeachment off the table then. And how did the 08 election turnout?

[stopbush]

62. Obama was not running against an incumbent president.

Apples and oranges.

[Trumpocalypse]

63. True

The argument actually make less sense now since the Dem nominee will be running against the person people want removed from office.

[SunSeeker]

60. You have to make people believe voting will make a difference in their lives.

As I explained to you, Republicans have imposed transactional costs on voting via voter ID laws and long waits--a modern day poll tax. If the cost outweighs the benefit in their mind, people won't vote, even if they hate Trump. Their priority is putting dinner on the table and picking up their kids from school.

[Trumpocalypse]

61. And if they were motivated enough

to come out in the midterms (which usually has low turnout) despite those obstacles because they have a problem with Trump, they are not going to sit out a Presidential election and let Trump get re-elected. That just makes no rational sense.

[SunSeeker]

64. If they're disappointed in the folks they busted their ass for in the midterms to fight Trump...

Because those folks ended up not impeaching Trump despite overwhelming evidence from Mueller and the majority in the House to pass articles of impeachment vote...they might see it as those folks not fighting for them or listening to them.

[Trumpocalypse]

65. Still makes no sense

If they came out in the midterms because they want Trump out of office, no way they are going to stay home and let him get re-elected.

BTW Where does impeaching Trump show up on the list of issues important to midterm voters: https://news.gallup.com/poll/244367/top-issues-voters-healthcare-economy-immigration.aspx

[SunSeeker]

66. It makes sense not to take our voters for granted. 67% of Democrats want him impeached.

That's per a Reuters poll taken after the release of the Mueller report: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-poll-idUSKCN1RV16S

The release of the report listing Trump's crimes, and Mueller repeatedly saying it's Congress' duty to pursue a remedy against Trump, changes things a bit don't you think?

You are citing a poll taken in Nov. 2018.

[Trumpocalypse]

68. Did you read the poll?

Which says:

Forty percent said they thought Trump should be impeached, while 42 percent said he should not

And the poll I cited was of 2018 voters regarding the issues important to them and why they voted the way they did. Since impeachment didn’t even make the list there is no factual basis to support the ridiculous argument that not pursuing impeachment will depress 2020 voter turnout.

[SunSeeker]

69. Did you?

67% of Democrats want an impeachment. If you care more about the 42% of all voters (which includes virtually all Republicans) who don't want impeachment, then that is your prerogative.

We obviously disagree on strategy here. I told you why I believe we could lose Dem votes if we fail to proceed with impeachment, and you find those reasons not valid. There really is no point in continuing this conversation.

[Trumpocalypse]

70. Not strategy but logic

It is just not logical to contend that people who want Trump out of office will not vote in 2020. It is a silly and ridiculous argument.

[SunSeeker]

71. Insulting someone will not make them come around to your point of view. nt

[Trumpocalypse]

72. Not insulting anyone

but am calling out the argument for what it is. Silly and ridiculous with no basis in fact.

[Trumpocalypse]

46. I'm asking a question

We should not fear questions.

[uponit7771]

41. Humans technically detect fake people before they consider fear, FAKE is saying impeachment is on

... the table but not really meaning to pull the trigger.

[Trumpocalypse]

45. And humans who passionately want Trump out of office

will not vote in 20 and let him get re-elected. That makes no sense.

[Norbert]

48. So the Red wave is coming and will reelect dump and flip the House/keep the Senate

Funny. I didn't see the news flash.

I just don't see the House changing more than +/- five seats.

At this very early stage the dufus must worry about hanging onto Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan while also not losing states like Arizona, North Carolina and Florida.

The Senate may be in play but at this point we still don't even have all the challengers in place.

How long is the economy going to last before a downturn or recession...or worse; five years, one year, two months...? No one really knows but the shit head continues to sabotage it with tariffs, sanctions, tax cuts for the rich and generally pissing off our long time allies and the world. Uhh, on a related note $3 gasoline is just around the corner for most states not named California.

Impeachment? We need to get on the same page, whatever that is. The orange menace is taking on water and the House & SDNY is working on exposing him. I can assure you this is worse than Watergate. Be patient. He and his crime syndicate will screw up big at some point. Most criminals do.

What if we lose... Sorry, I just don't have the time and patience for it.

[stopbush]

14. Er, any sentence that begins with "if"

as does my OP - is not an assertion of fact.

Who’s being ridiculous?

[Awsi Dooger]

24. It doesn't require a big swing in the electorate for those two outcomes

Nobody will like this. I don't want to be playing the bad guy around here but so often the perspective is ridiculous.

Trump is only a minor underdog in 2020. Virtually a coin flip. It takes next to nothing for an incumbent to move up sufficiently and pull out a race like this. If the economy does not falter by mid 2020, then Trump becomes the favorite, regardless of any other variable.

Our current House numbers are based on a +8 national margin. It is next to impossible that we will have +8 in the generic vote again in 2020. It simply doesn't work that way in presidential years as compared to midterms. Now, our incumbents will get a boost from incumbency so it wouldn't require a full +8 nationally for all of them to survive. But it probably requires +6 or +7. Those suburban districts are fragile as hell. We don't figure to get +6 or +7. Far more likely than not, we will lose House seats in 2020. I hope posters here are prepared for that reality, instead of lollipop notion that we'll have another windfall. The posters who expect another House gain are the same ones who didn't understand that we were almost certain to lose senate seats in 2018.

Again, I realize my reputation around here would be better if I merely shut up when topics like this arise. But I can't shut up and be true to myself, when misconception is so blatant. We are indeed in an incredibly precarious situation. I'm not fully opposed to impeachment but it contains considerable risk. The party that wins big in the midterm always gets a stupid idea that suddenly it is the beloved side and nothing can possibly go wrong the next time.

[manor321]

3. The anti-impeachers don't have a plan B

There is no good reason not to impeach. Not one.

[USALiberal]

6. Impeachment fails, Trump gloats, Dems lose! Nt

[SunSeeker]

12. How can impeachment investigation hearings that expose Trump's crimes be a failure?

Trump will be impeached by the House--only the third president to have been in history.

Mueller clearly delivered impeachment charges to the Congress, like special counsels have before him.

We must act to show we stand for the rule of law. We must hold him accountable. The Constitution and Mueller clearly lay out how we are to do that: impeachment.

If Senate Republicans then choose to not remove him, that's on them. By then, he will be a damaged president and the Senate GOP will be seen as having chosen party over country.

[USALiberal]

5. What is your proof of any of that? Nt

[stopbush]

15. "if" doesn't require proof.

[ReformedGOPer]

22. Bill Clinton was impeached, and he enjoyed his best favorables during and after that mess. But

he was a lame duck. Remember what happened in the next election. Dems lost the Presidency (actually, Gore was robbed). GOP took the House. GOP took the Senate. GOP was not held accountable for the impeachment.

[Trumpocalypse]

28. And in 2006 won back the House & Senate

And Pelosi immediately took impeachment off the table to the despair many on the left. Then in the next election we won more seats in Congress and the presidency.

[SoCalDem]

47. Holding accountable is not what dems do..

This is my BIGGEST gripe..

We have a habit of easing off at just the worst time..

Had we pressed hard on Iran Contra we would never have had a GHWB presidency or a GW presidency, but we always have had the notion that "moving forward" / "letting bygones be bygones" was the way to go.

Republicans are a lawless bunch and they NEVER let up..Over the last 51 years, they have "governed" 27 years.. and have, on the whole, forced THEIR agenda even when we had the white house.

Dems are usually looking for consensus even when we do have congressional control and the WH.. Republicans do not care if they don't have complete control.. They feel as if the default position is always theirs, and they do whatever they need to do to get their way.

What I wish for most, is for our leadership to STFU and just DO things.. We have a propensity to go on tv with "we're gonnas". Meet privately decide what you need to do..they DO IT.. Tell us about it AFTER you have done it.
Republicans never telegraph their intentions. we always do.

[MurrayDelph]

9. That was their strategy when McConnell held up Obama nominees

I wonder how Justice Merrick Garland felt about that strategy.

[sarcasmo]

10. 4 years of free range Trump, our nation is finished.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

11. Move somewhere else.

My only son is in a PhD program in astronomy, and I need to have a serious talk with him about taking a job in some other country that I could readily move to. Right now I'm nearly 2,000 miles from him, which is entirely too far. If he were to take a job in my part of the country I could remain, but I would strongly encourage him to go elsewhere.

He's not very likely to marry and have children, and he's not particularly close to his few cousins, so moving abroad would be a reasonable choice.

[dawg day]

32. Don't leave us!

Let's just Dump Trump.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

36. I constantly feel that this must have been what it was like to

be in Germany in 1934 or so. It was clear what was going to happen, even if the specifics weren't obvious. The despair, the feeling that nothing I can do will matter.

Have you read In the Garden of the Beasts by Erik Larson? If you haven't you must. And if you have, you know what I'm talking about.

Which brings me to the fundamental question: If you could go back in time to 1933 or '34, would you tell a German family to hang tight? That in a decade or so things would be just fine? Would you tell a Jewish family anywhere in Europe to stay?

[roamer65]

16. Secession.

New England, NY and CA will leave first.

[MarcA]

19. Many Americans will learn what's its like to be a Refugee. n/t

[DontBooVote]

23. Yes. Because when Putin's coup is complete, tRump and his goons will come after his

political enemies, including those press outlets he deems as his enemies.

That means us, too.

[quickesst]

21. I have a question....

If Ds DO impeach, & tRump wins in 2020 & Ds lose the House, what then?

[dawg day]

30. in that case, the US is f'ed, and deserves to be.

Then we just have to accept that we can't have nice things like democracy.

[quickesst]

40. So.....

If you take both scenarios, and Trump is re-elected, it will be a disaster for the country. I simply do not see the point of the OP except to express one person's opinion especially if someone else expresses the opposite opinion and it leads to the same result.

[stopbush]

57. Your question asks the question that is already being asked. My OP proposes a different scenario

that isn't being asked.

[quickesst]

67. Wouldn't your answer to my question....

"in that case, the US is f'ed, and deserves to be."

.... be the same answer under your scenario? Under your scenario, if Trump wins, how would the US not be f*****, and under my scenario it would be? I'm still not getting it.

[UniteFightBack]

25. I just don't think it's helpful to worry about all of that now. There's a lot of road to be run

yet...so just put that out of your mind...for now.

[RandySF]

27. If we do impeach and we lose the WH and Huse, what then?

Same difference.

[dawg day]

29. Here's what might happen--

Impeachment or not-- this is what sunk Nixon--

a year or more of hearings. Constant drumbeat of "this guy is a crook". (And Trump's crookery is way more widespread than Nixon's.)

Gradually peeling away of "standard Repubs" who never liked him anyway, and think, "we can save the GOP if we step away from him,' and they won't do it openly, but they'll start supporting (secretly) his potential rivals-- Weld, the Ohio guy.

Nutso Trumpists going off on some nutso direction, you know, like the US Army is evil, and they'll decide the only way to go is bombing mailboxes. (This will be horrible, and we've already seen it-- they'll go after the Clinton and Obama families, and we can just hope they fail.) They are ungettable, and good-- they belong in prison, not a political party.


Most people who voted for Trump will vote for him again. But that was a minority to start with, even pumped up by KGB cheating.

If 10% more people vote for the Dem-- sorry, it should be .1%, but the GoP cheats-- -- well, I think that will happen.

For many people, it will be enough to say, "You know. you don't have to actually cast a vote for president. If you despise Trump, you can just leave the president slot empty. That's okay."

[democratisphere]

31. I'm immigrating to Canada ASAP.

[Xolodno]

33. Its too late for impeachment, period.

After Congressional investigations, the proceedings would occur right in the middle of the campaign....which provides ammunition for Trump.

A Republican friend of mine, who despises and loathes Trump (and voted for Obama, I might add), were recently discussing this mess. The best bet for the Democratic Party, once the nominee is secured, drop a turd every couple of months on Trump. Make him play defense the whole time.

And if by some miracle, he does get a second term, then begin the impeachment proceedings. By then, a shit load of shoes will have dropped by then.

[stopbush]

58. We can only start impeachment in 2021 if Ds hold the House, and that's not guaranteed.

[triron]

37. Best not to engage in these hypotheticals it seems to me.

Enough to deal with NOW.

[BlueTsunami2018]

38. There is no "plan b" if that happens.

It’s all over at that point. It might already be over.

[Locutusofborg]

39. Impeachment would have the same impact on Trump

That it had on Bill Clinton, ZERO. Without 67 Guilty votes in the Senate, the President keeps right on occupying the Oval Office. Every Democratic Senator plus 20 Republicans would have to vote guilty.
Then Mike Pence would become president and he would be running for reelection during his honeymoon period with the voters.

[Lock him up.]

43. The supposedly 'Law and Order' Republicans will side with their proven criminal in chief

Obstruction of justice like 10 times and a zillion times on Twitter: 'Above the Law' Republicans?
Witness tampering on Twitter (how many times): Above the Law' Republicans?
Emoluments clause WTF is that for? Above the Law' Republicans?

We don't know yet about all the other cases.

So the supposedly 'Law and Order' Republican senators will side with the 'Above the Law' monarch? How will then manage to campaign with that constant questioning from their constituents and the press?

[Demsrule86]

51. Moderates gave us the house and would be more endangered by a impeachment.

[Trumpocalypse]

52. If the Dems do impeach and the Senate acquits him, what then?

We'll be handing him a victory going into the election. He'll be able to campaign saying that he was exonerated and impeachment was a failed partisan witch hunt. What then, what's your plan B?

[Calista241]

53. If Trump wins and the R's take the house in 2020, then we're doing something wrong.

and have totally mis-read the political environment.

[wryter2000]

54. Could happen if we do impeach him

And the Senate doesn’t convict

[stillcool]

55. If Trump wins the election.

the election was rigged..nationally. Impeach or not, elections are effed up, and in many states people don't seem too bothered by it. Sad to say, but I think 'We the people', are the only thing that can fix this..and in too many states Republicans rule. Nothing people who don't live in those states can do. Impeachment won't help that.