Impeachment polling only barely nudges up in support - but still down from 2018.

[Drunken Irishman]

In the recent CNN poll, 41% of Americans believe we should impeach Trump. Most, if not all, these gains came from Democrats solidifying their support for impeachment.

But what I found interesting is how the numbers are actually down compared to 2018.

In Sept., 2018, 47% of Americans supported impeaching Trump.
In Dec., 2018, 43% of Americans supported impeaching Trump.
In April, 2019, that number dropped to 37%.

This is the first uptick we've seen in impeachment numbers since summer of last year. The problem is, the uptick isn't significant - and the total who do not want Trump impeached remains above the majority, as 54% of Americans don't support impeaching Trump.

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/01/rel7a.-.trump,.investigations.pdf

What this tells me is that, with all the noise from the Mueller Report, it didn't radically shift the narrative - even with Mueller talking. In fact, less Americans today, than at this point last year, support impeachment (54 to 51).

Some other tidbits from the polls that shows just how real the divide is:

44% of those polled believe these investigations are not merited by the facts - while 47% believe they are. Neither side has a majority support but it says a lot about the message when 44% of the country believes these investigations are not merited by fact. Continued investigating risks the potential of people tuning it out as they actually start to buy the line from Trump that this is a witch hunt.

One good thing to take away from this poll is that 56% of Americans believe Democrats are doing the right amount/or too little when it comes to investigating Trump (27% too little, 29% right amount), which kinda contradicts the above since you'd think if it wasn't merit based, those same people would feel like the Democrats are doing too much investigating. Alas...

Still, these numbers are not devastating for Trump. Public perception still hasn't eroded as rapidly as it did for Nixon even prior to the first TV hearings by the Senate into Watergate (May of 1973) - even before the hearings, Nixon had dropped 22 points in approval over the course of three and a half months.

Trump's approval today in this poll is 45% - which is actually up from the 42% he was at to start the year.

So, bottom line: Trump's support has improved since the Mueller probe ended.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. 34% of those polled consider themselves Democrats.

That means 66% of this poll was made up of non-Democratic Americans.

Congress, BTW, isn't just there to represent one party - it's there to represent all Americans.

It's not just Republicans. Independents, who make up a significant portion of this poll, don't support impeachment by a wide margin - as 59% are against it. At the end of the day, for this not to be a partisan affair, we need to see more independents jump on board. If it's only Democrats who are backing impeachment ... then what? And what do you tell those Democrats who represent congressional districts that are largely moderate or Republican leaning?

[Wellstone ruled]

4. There you go,

that is the most disturbing piece of the Survey. But,nothing new,Corporate Media does this type of Polling all the time.

Thanks for posting the true target base.

[TwilightZone]

11. It's in line with party identification.

Gallup has Dems at 31% nationally, so 34% is pretty close to reality.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

[Hortensis]

13. No, but big problem with truth-deniers who

refuse to admit that 75 - 125 does NOT equal a majority.

Also, very, very seriously, lack of understanding of and contempt for democracy itself have become a severe danger to our nation. Most of those weak points are RW populists, but we are in severe danger that enough of the similar types on the left might join them to create a majority.

Our intelligence services say that Russia is working on exactly this right now.

So I believe we should assume that the striking similarity of the hostility and contempt displayed toward Nancy Pelosi to that toward Hillary Clinton is absolutely intended and being augmented and targeted by the GRU through the same weak points.

“Before mass leaders seize the power to fit reality to their lies, their propaganda is marked by its extreme contempt for facts as such, for in their opinion fact depends entirely on the power of man who can fabricate it.” – Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism

[deist99]

3. reason

In my opinion the reason the numbers for impeachment went down is because the Mueller report did not establish that Trump or anyone in his organization conspired with the Russians in their election interference activities. Many believed, including myself, that Mueller would be able to prove that Trump or people in his organization were working hand in hand with the Russians. I've read all of part I and most of part II and yes it does state that some people deleted e-mails and other evidence. However, it also says that (and I'm paraphrasing here) that Russia wanted Trump elected and Trump wanted Trump elected but it appears they were working in parallel not in cooperation. It also states in Part I that after the election "it appears that the Russian Government had problems setting up contacts within Trump's transition team. That doesn't make any sense if they had been conspiring during the election.

I know my desire for impeachment went down after reading part I. Why? Because I knew the only chance we had of getting any of the repukes to side with impeachment is if we could prove that Trump conspired with Putin. Without that proof the repukes are just going to say how can you obstruct justice if there is no crime.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. I agree with you - and this is something lost on many.

Obstruction just isn't a strong enough charge to rally around. Bill Clinton was charged with obstruction and America collectively gave that charge a 'meh' only because they didn't see it as devastating as what the GOP was selling. The Democrats can try to retry the idea of collusion but without a major smoking gun, it seems unlikely they'd be able to reach a different conclusion.

So, it falls back to obstruction and then we get lost in the weeds of that charge and it has far less bite than otherwise.

Bill Clinton successfully withstood impeachment because the obstruction was around a personal matter that didn't seem to impact the country. Americans didn't like Bill Clinton was boinking an intern but they certainly didn't think it warranted the spectacle the GOP made it.

With this, I think most Americans know Trump probably did some questionable, if not illegal, things while running for president. But unless we can bring that to light with absolute proof - I think a large portion of this country just doesn't seem to care and they're ready to move on.

[DeminPennswoods]

6. Vietnam helped drag down Nixon's numbers

Lots of Americans viewed Watergate as just a "third rate burglary".

[DeminPennswoods]

7. The poll MOE is +/- 3.8

It's basically been bouncing around it's MOE.

In the last 12 months, Trump's net went from -12 to -9, well within the MOE.
24 months ago, Trump was net -8, now net -9.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Yup. Trump's approval is remarkably consistent.

That's both good and bad for him.

Good because, despite the last two years his entire administration being under investigation, the bottom hasn't quite fallen out and he's still polling around the low-to-mid 40s for the most part.

It's also bad because, despite a strong economy, he can't seem to touch 50% approval and that typically doesn't bode well for reelection chances. Beyond that, if the economy turns south, he may find himself dropping below 40% consistently.

[DeminPennswoods]

9. His base is somewhere between 25-30%

The rest of approval is the "somewhat approve" component.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. And almost all tied to the economic conditions...

If that shifts, so will they.

[DeminPennswoods]

12. More likely tied to general racism and xenophobia

than economics.

[struggle4progress]

14. What should you and I be doing to drive those numbers up?

[Gothmog]

16. Here is some interesting polling

Link to tweet

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Good stuff.