Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

pangaia

(24,324 posts)
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 04:45 PM Jun 2019

To me, this is a very interesting analysis of Nancy Pelosi and the issue of impeachment..

I'm not expert enough to know what is really going on, or what is best, but this makes sense to me....
If you have the time and interest, the entire article is worth a read... It's not too long...
BOLD is mine...



What Nancy Pelosi Wants to Do Before Impeachment

She knows timing is everything—and she’s skilled at shaping public sentiment.

JUN 11, 2019
Steve Israel
Former Democratic congressman from New York
.....

When House Democrats convened in the room to hash out strategies on policy and politics, Pelosi would point to the portrait and remind them of a Lincoln quote: “Public sentiment is everything.” That instruction guides her today on the matter of impeachment. But it’s easily misunderstood.

For Pelosi, public sentiment doesn’t mean following public opinion, but strategically shaping it so that it’s more receptive to a strategic goal. It’s not just laying the groundwork; it’s fertilizing it. That takes message discipline, unity, and patience—all of which will be necessary as pressure to impeach President Donald Trump continues to build.

Pelosi executed a strategy to shape public sentiment immediately after President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004, when Republicans expanded their majority by three seats. Bush was pushing for a politically risky overhaul of Social Security. Members of her caucus and outside advocacy groups pressured Pelosi to propose alternative policies. But Pelosi knew that once Democrats offered a solution, they would give Republicans something to attack rather than defend. For nearly two years, Republicans watched their favorability ratings fall, dragged down by a spate of scandals and the unpopular war in Iraq. Only a few months before the midterm election, Pelosi and the House Democratic Caucus rolled out “6 for ’06,” the legislative priorities they would pass if in the majority. Naturally, Republicans took an offensive posture, but by then it was too late. Public sentiment had ripened for a Democratic legislative agenda, the party gained 32 seats in the House, and Pelosi became speaker. Then she mobilized her majority to pass those very priorities. Two years later, in 2008, the electorate rewarded Democrats with an even larger majority. Timing was everything.

On a more mundane level, I caught Pelosi’s ire when I forgot the Lincoln mantra. It was May 2003, only two years into my 16-year tenure representing a fairly competitive district on Long Island, New York. When Republicans offered a new package of tax cuts skewed to the wealthiest, I indicated to the Democratic whip’s office that I was undecided. A few days before the vote, Pelosi hunted me down on the House floor and asked why I couldn’t oppose the measure. When I told her that many of my constituents favored it, she looked me squarely in the eye and said, “Well, educate them.”





https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/nancy-pelosi-public-opinion-and-timing-matter/591385/
47 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
To me, this is a very interesting analysis of Nancy Pelosi and the issue of impeachment.. (Original Post) pangaia Jun 2019 OP
MUST read material wryter2000 Jun 2019 #1
I rarely read entire articles. pangaia Jun 2019 #2
They lost four seats in the House Poiuyt Jun 2019 #5
As opposed to gaining seats wryter2000 Jun 2019 #19
yeah but Skittles Jun 2019 #6
yes nt Grasswire2 Jun 2019 #9
True there wryter2000 Jun 2019 #20
I absolutely disagree in this case Skittles Jun 2019 #21
I think it's a question we can't answer at this point wryter2000 Jun 2019 #22
oh I can answer Skittles Jun 2019 #23
And acquit him wryter2000 Jun 2019 #24
and what happens when nothing is done and then Russia helps re-install him? Skittles Jun 2019 #25
If he's acquitted wryter2000 Jun 2019 #28
THE HOUSE NEEDS TO ACT; FUCK THE SENATE Skittles Jun 2019 #30
They don't have the VOTES in the HOUSE (yet) Baltimike Jun 2019 #33
Impeaching now and doing nothing between now and the election aren't the only options StarfishSaver Jun 2019 #29
Thanks you....this. nt Baltimike Jun 2019 #34
+1000. (nt) ehrnst Jun 2019 #44
wrong on the timing NewJeffCT Jun 2019 #36
I stand corrected wryter2000 Jun 2019 #37
Thanks for this read! emmaverybo Jun 2019 #3
My pleasure... pangaia Jun 2019 #4
Thanks. Shanti Mama Jun 2019 #7
Nancy Pelosi is not infallible. elevator48 Jun 2019 #11
... NurseJackie Jun 2019 #14
she totally knows more than Maddow or Maher AlexSFCA Jun 2019 #26
No one said that Speaker Pelosi is 'infallible" or "always right." ehrnst Jun 2019 #32
For what it is worth, have no idea if she is right or wrong. pangaia Jun 2019 #41
So, what was the wonderful, experienced, smartest-person-in-the-room idea with Dubya? FiveGoodMen Jun 2019 #8
I have no idea if what she is doing now is best or not. pangaia Jun 2019 #10
Never hurts to get another view... FiveGoodMen Jun 2019 #12
Me too...... pangaia Jun 2019 #15
You assume that Nancy is going to make public their strategy? ehrnst Jun 2019 #45
Did we win something? watoos Jun 2019 #31
Perhaps you don't remember 2018? ehrnst Jun 2019 #39
Do you think that the Speaker should simply poll people rather ehrnst Jun 2019 #35
Interesting question StarfishSaver Jun 2019 #38
nancy doesnt want to impeach in a post truth environment. mopinko Jun 2019 #13
That makes sense... pangaia Jun 2019 #16
That's the scary part. Why aren't we KPN Jun 2019 #17
because we are paralyzed by the unreality of it all. mopinko Jun 2019 #18
That was Putin's plan from the get go. pangaia Jun 2019 #42
yup. every dictator's playbook. mopinko Jun 2019 #43
Do you expect someone else to organize it before you go into the street? ehrnst Jun 2019 #46
dem pols and media SUCK at gaging 'public sentiment' because they never factor in the fact that certainot Jun 2019 #27
Timing is everything... jcgoldie Jun 2019 #40
I agree. (nt) ehrnst Jun 2019 #47

wryter2000

(46,025 posts)
1. MUST read material
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 04:58 PM
Jun 2019

The whole article isn't that long.

And for those of us who insist impeaching Clinton didn't hurt the Republicans because Gore lost in 2000 (assuming he really did), this article points out that Republicans lost seats in the House in 1998, which was right after impeaching him. It did hurt them.

wryter2000

(46,025 posts)
19. As opposed to gaining seats
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:07 PM
Jun 2019

Which would have been the normal way of things, especially if, as many here insist, that impeachment should have hurt the Democrats.

Skittles

(153,138 posts)
6. yeah but
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 05:27 PM
Jun 2019

it wasn't just the IMPEACHMENT, it was the idea he was impeached for a BULLSHIT ISSUE that turned people off.....I don't think collusion / obstruction of justice / dereliction of duty is in the same league

wryter2000

(46,025 posts)
20. True there
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:08 PM
Jun 2019

Last edited Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:53 PM - Edit history (1)

I simply dispute that impeachment without conviction is always bad for the party of the impeached President

wryter2000

(46,025 posts)
22. I think it's a question we can't answer at this point
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:55 PM
Jun 2019

There's no equivalent to what we're experiencing now

wryter2000

(46,025 posts)
24. And acquit him
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 10:11 PM
Jun 2019

17 months before the election so the voters will have forgotten about it a year earlier.

Baltimike

(4,140 posts)
33. They don't have the VOTES in the HOUSE (yet)
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 10:01 AM
Jun 2019

so...this is a process...and will be in the courts...and so no immediate gratification will be given.

Because we are under a coup right now, and I, for one, am NOT willing to partake in the "just impeach him now, who cares if the Senate exonerates him". I fucking care. It gives the conservative press even more incentive to put access over accountability and invites the KGB (pretend they disbanded...I won't) and other adversaries to RIG further elections...it will give them free reign to just do exactly that, and the mob wins.

We just got into power...and we will get there...but not until Joe Sixpack knows wtf is going on...

Right now, he thinks MF45 is cleared.

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)
36. wrong on the timing
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 10:11 AM
Jun 2019

the House impeachment vote was in December of 1998. The loss of seats in the House happened several weeks earlier.

If you look at the Clinton approval ratings from the last half of 1998, they were ALL between 63-66%

The four days before the impeachment vote there was an extremely popular 4 day bombing campaign that took place. Couple that with the impeachment vote and he was bumped up to 73% for the last week of 1998.

By the time he was acquitted a few months later, he was in the mid 60s.

30 days after acquittal, he was down to 62% - below his approval ratings for the entire second half of 1998.

Another 30 days later in April, he was down in the high 50s and never was over 60% for the remainder of 1999. Because his ratings were "down" the media labeled Clinton to be tarnished and Al Gore was urged to distance himself from Clinton, which he unfortunately did...



wryter2000

(46,025 posts)
37. I stand corrected
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 10:18 AM
Jun 2019

I googled it but still got it wrong.

The author of the article mentions the loss. Maybe his point was that the process hurt the Republicans. Even without that detail, his arguments are cogent.

Shanti Mama

(1,288 posts)
7. Thanks.
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 05:28 PM
Jun 2019

I think NancyP wants him gone more than most of us. And she's smart enough to do it right. I trust her strategy completely.

 

elevator48

(53 posts)
11. Nancy Pelosi is not infallible.
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 06:04 PM
Jun 2019

I see so many posts here about just trust Nancy, or she knows more than anyone else. I think she is a very strong, intelligent and capable leader. But, nobody is always right. The people who have come out in favor of starting an impeachment inquiry have made a case that appears to be the correct one.

I spent a a large part of my life in sports at all levels. I encountered some incredible coaches who probably were more knowledgeable about their sport than 99.9% of others. I saw them lose big games on numerous occasions.

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
32. No one said that Speaker Pelosi is 'infallible" or "always right."
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 09:53 AM
Jun 2019

Can you show us where anyone has said that?

She does know more than anyone else about being Speaker, because she has more experience than anyone else, and has the ongoing long term confidence of her peers to be the leader of the party caucus.

Who do you think is more qualified to make the call on impeachment? Take a poll?

Pediatricians are not infallible, but I'm going to trust them to know more about vaccine safety than I am someone who is not a pediatrician rantng on the internet.

Who are you going to trust more to coach a team - a seasoned professional, or a bunch of armchair quarterbacks?



pangaia

(24,324 posts)
41. For what it is worth, have no idea if she is right or wrong.
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 10:56 AM
Jun 2019

I just found the analysis interesting.

FiveGoodMen

(20,018 posts)
8. So, what was the wonderful, experienced, smartest-person-in-the-room idea with Dubya?
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 05:52 PM
Jun 2019

Did we win something from leaving him alone?

pangaia

(24,324 posts)
10. I have no idea if what she is doing now is best or not.
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 05:55 PM
Jun 2019

I just found the article an interesting explanation of one opinion..

FiveGoodMen

(20,018 posts)
12. Never hurts to get another view...
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 06:05 PM
Jun 2019

but I'd sure like to hear that we are doing something and not just thinking about it.

back

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
45. You assume that Nancy is going to make public their strategy?
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 02:15 PM
Jun 2019

Why do you think that they are doing nothing?

And what makes you think that Speaker Pelosi isn't getting other views?

 

watoos

(7,142 posts)
31. Did we win something?
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 11:53 PM
Jun 2019

Pelosi was Speaker in 2010 when Republicans flipped a net 64 House seats.

Remember when she handed John Boehner that oversized gavel?

 

ehrnst

(32,640 posts)
39. Perhaps you don't remember 2018?
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 10:34 AM
Jun 2019

Here's a refresher:



And since when is the Speaker of the House the head of the DCCC?

 

StarfishSaver

(18,486 posts)
38. Interesting question
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 10:20 AM
Jun 2019

Since people seem to swing back and forth between "Who cares if it's the politically smart thing to do. She needs to IMPEACH IMMEDIATELY!!!" and "A majority of Democrats support impeachment and she should do what we say and IMPEACH IMMEDIATELY!!!""

So, I think the answer to your question depends on whether the respondent thinks they're in the majority of people polled. If so, she should definitely poll people and follow the will of the majority. If they're not in the majority, she should ignore the majority and do what the minority tells her is "right."

mopinko

(70,067 posts)
13. nancy doesnt want to impeach in a post truth environment.
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 06:07 PM
Jun 2019

and i dont blame her.

a lot of people's wont hear it from her, no matter how loud she screams it.
they have to read the god damned report.

i think she also has her eye on how this all spins.
she isnt going to do it till the people are in the streets, imho. (literally or metaphorically.)

mopinko

(70,067 posts)
18. because we are paralyzed by the unreality of it all.
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 07:43 PM
Jun 2019

we just dont know which end it up any more. or how long is too long. or what might happen next. and what kind of crazy fucking boomerang our good intentions will turn out to be.

yup. we are in deep shit.

 

certainot

(9,090 posts)
27. dem pols and media SUCK at gaging 'public sentiment' because they never factor in the fact that
Wed Jun 12, 2019, 10:53 PM
Jun 2019

1500 coordinated radio stations make the republican/right 'sentiment' look like it's way bigger than it really is.

they can make 10 or 15% look like 'popular' and since the left gives putin/trump talk radio a total free speech free ride. pelosi and others have no clue these shits are paper tigers

how the fuck are you going to educate anyone in those 40 states with 80 senators dominated by what the kremlin shoots out of limbaugh's ass every day for 30 years. if they'd pay $1000 per hour 1200 stations x15 hrs/day the talk radio monopoly propaganda operation would be worth nearly $5Bil/year

biggest political mistake in history

we can't expect pelosi and dem and media leaders, who live in cities and don't have time to listen to a pack of ignorant racists, to understand didley about talk radio but all the left had to do was get pissed off when, for eg, limbaugh repeats the phrase "take her out" in reference to AOC, before she gets a pack of death threats.

jcgoldie

(11,623 posts)
40. Timing is everything...
Thu Jun 13, 2019, 10:47 AM
Jun 2019

I feel like its a matter of when not if. Based on nothing concrete I feel like she's gaming out how to time this thing to have the most political effect on 2020...

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»To me, this is a very int...