General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTo me, this is a very interesting analysis of Nancy Pelosi and the issue of impeachment..
I'm not expert enough to know what is really going on, or what is best, but this makes sense to me....
If you have the time and interest, the entire article is worth a read... It's not too long...
BOLD is mine...
What Nancy Pelosi Wants to Do Before Impeachment
She knows timing is everythingand shes skilled at shaping public sentiment.
JUN 11, 2019
Steve Israel
Former Democratic congressman from New York
.....
For Pelosi, public sentiment doesnt mean following public opinion, but strategically shaping it so that its more receptive to a strategic goal. Its not just laying the groundwork; its fertilizing it. That takes message discipline, unity, and patienceall of which will be necessary as pressure to impeach President Donald Trump continues to build.
Pelosi executed a strategy to shape public sentiment immediately after President George W. Bushs reelection in 2004, when Republicans expanded their majority by three seats. Bush was pushing for a politically risky overhaul of Social Security. Members of her caucus and outside advocacy groups pressured Pelosi to propose alternative policies. But Pelosi knew that once Democrats offered a solution, they would give Republicans something to attack rather than defend. For nearly two years, Republicans watched their favorability ratings fall, dragged down by a spate of scandals and the unpopular war in Iraq. Only a few months before the midterm election, Pelosi and the House Democratic Caucus rolled out 6 for 06, the legislative priorities they would pass if in the majority. Naturally, Republicans took an offensive posture, but by then it was too late. Public sentiment had ripened for a Democratic legislative agenda, the party gained 32 seats in the House, and Pelosi became speaker. Then she mobilized her majority to pass those very priorities. Two years later, in 2008, the electorate rewarded Democrats with an even larger majority. Timing was everything.
On a more mundane level, I caught Pelosis ire when I forgot the Lincoln mantra. It was May 2003, only two years into my 16-year tenure representing a fairly competitive district on Long Island, New York. When Republicans offered a new package of tax cuts skewed to the wealthiest, I indicated to the Democratic whips office that I was undecided. A few days before the vote, Pelosi hunted me down on the House floor and asked why I couldnt oppose the measure. When I told her that many of my constituents favored it, she looked me squarely in the eye and said, Well, educate them.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/nancy-pelosi-public-opinion-and-timing-matter/591385/
wryter2000
(46,025 posts)The whole article isn't that long.
And for those of us who insist impeaching Clinton didn't hurt the Republicans because Gore lost in 2000 (assuming he really did), this article points out that Republicans lost seats in the House in 1998, which was right after impeaching him. It did hurt them.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)This one I did as this is such a big issue here at DUUUU,
Poiuyt
(18,122 posts)Not exactly a shellacking.
wryter2000
(46,025 posts)Which would have been the normal way of things, especially if, as many here insist, that impeachment should have hurt the Democrats.
Skittles
(153,138 posts)it wasn't just the IMPEACHMENT, it was the idea he was impeached for a BULLSHIT ISSUE that turned people off.....I don't think collusion / obstruction of justice / dereliction of duty is in the same league
Grasswire2
(13,565 posts)wryter2000
(46,025 posts)Last edited Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:53 PM - Edit history (1)
I simply dispute that impeachment without conviction is always bad for the party of the impeached President
Skittles
(153,138 posts)wryter2000
(46,025 posts)There's no equivalent to what we're experiencing now
Skittles
(153,138 posts)IMPEACH is fucking orange ass already.
wryter2000
(46,025 posts)17 months before the election so the voters will have forgotten about it a year earlier.
Skittles
(153,138 posts)wryter2000
(46,025 posts)Nothing has been accomplished
Skittles
(153,138 posts)Baltimike
(4,140 posts)so...this is a process...and will be in the courts...and so no immediate gratification will be given.
Because we are under a coup right now, and I, for one, am NOT willing to partake in the "just impeach him now, who cares if the Senate exonerates him". I fucking care. It gives the conservative press even more incentive to put access over accountability and invites the KGB (pretend they disbanded...I won't) and other adversaries to RIG further elections...it will give them free reign to just do exactly that, and the mob wins.
We just got into power...and we will get there...but not until Joe Sixpack knows wtf is going on...
Right now, he thinks MF45 is cleared.
StarfishSaver
(18,486 posts)Baltimike
(4,140 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)the House impeachment vote was in December of 1998. The loss of seats in the House happened several weeks earlier.
If you look at the Clinton approval ratings from the last half of 1998, they were ALL between 63-66%
The four days before the impeachment vote there was an extremely popular 4 day bombing campaign that took place. Couple that with the impeachment vote and he was bumped up to 73% for the last week of 1998.
By the time he was acquitted a few months later, he was in the mid 60s.
30 days after acquittal, he was down to 62% - below his approval ratings for the entire second half of 1998.
Another 30 days later in April, he was down in the high 50s and never was over 60% for the remainder of 1999. Because his ratings were "down" the media labeled Clinton to be tarnished and Al Gore was urged to distance himself from Clinton, which he unfortunately did...
wryter2000
(46,025 posts)I googled it but still got it wrong.
The author of the article mentions the loss. Maybe his point was that the process hurt the Republicans. Even without that detail, his arguments are cogent.
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)pangaia
(24,324 posts)Shanti Mama
(1,288 posts)I think NancyP wants him gone more than most of us. And she's smart enough to do it right. I trust her strategy completely.
elevator48
(53 posts)I see so many posts here about just trust Nancy, or she knows more than anyone else. I think she is a very strong, intelligent and capable leader. But, nobody is always right. The people who have come out in favor of starting an impeachment inquiry have made a case that appears to be the correct one.
I spent a a large part of my life in sports at all levels. I encountered some incredible coaches who probably were more knowledgeable about their sport than 99.9% of others. I saw them lose big games on numerous occasions.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)AlexSFCA
(6,137 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Can you show us where anyone has said that?
She does know more than anyone else about being Speaker, because she has more experience than anyone else, and has the ongoing long term confidence of her peers to be the leader of the party caucus.
Who do you think is more qualified to make the call on impeachment? Take a poll?
Pediatricians are not infallible, but I'm going to trust them to know more about vaccine safety than I am someone who is not a pediatrician rantng on the internet.
Who are you going to trust more to coach a team - a seasoned professional, or a bunch of armchair quarterbacks?
pangaia
(24,324 posts)I just found the analysis interesting.
FiveGoodMen
(20,018 posts)Did we win something from leaving him alone?
pangaia
(24,324 posts)I just found the article an interesting explanation of one opinion..
FiveGoodMen
(20,018 posts)but I'd sure like to hear that we are doing something and not just thinking about it.
back
pangaia
(24,324 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Why do you think that they are doing nothing?
And what makes you think that Speaker Pelosi isn't getting other views?
watoos
(7,142 posts)Pelosi was Speaker in 2010 when Republicans flipped a net 64 House seats.
Remember when she handed John Boehner that oversized gavel?
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)Here's a refresher:
And since when is the Speaker of the House the head of the DCCC?
ehrnst
(32,640 posts)than make decisions?
StarfishSaver
(18,486 posts)Since people seem to swing back and forth between "Who cares if it's the politically smart thing to do. She needs to IMPEACH IMMEDIATELY!!!" and "A majority of Democrats support impeachment and she should do what we say and IMPEACH IMMEDIATELY!!!""
So, I think the answer to your question depends on whether the respondent thinks they're in the majority of people polled. If so, she should definitely poll people and follow the will of the majority. If they're not in the majority, she should ignore the majority and do what the minority tells her is "right."
mopinko
(70,067 posts)and i dont blame her.
a lot of people's wont hear it from her, no matter how loud she screams it.
they have to read the god damned report.
i think she also has her eye on how this all spins.
she isnt going to do it till the people are in the streets, imho. (literally or metaphorically.)
pangaia
(24,324 posts)mean. IF repubs were honest, decent people it would be a no-brainer.
KPN
(15,641 posts)in the streets already?
mopinko
(70,067 posts)we just dont know which end it up any more. or how long is too long. or what might happen next. and what kind of crazy fucking boomerang our good intentions will turn out to be.
yup. we are in deep shit.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)mopinko
(70,067 posts)ehrnst
(32,640 posts)certainot
(9,090 posts)1500 coordinated radio stations make the republican/right 'sentiment' look like it's way bigger than it really is.
they can make 10 or 15% look like 'popular' and since the left gives putin/trump talk radio a total free speech free ride. pelosi and others have no clue these shits are paper tigers
how the fuck are you going to educate anyone in those 40 states with 80 senators dominated by what the kremlin shoots out of limbaugh's ass every day for 30 years. if they'd pay $1000 per hour 1200 stations x15 hrs/day the talk radio monopoly propaganda operation would be worth nearly $5Bil/year
biggest political mistake in history
we can't expect pelosi and dem and media leaders, who live in cities and don't have time to listen to a pack of ignorant racists, to understand didley about talk radio but all the left had to do was get pissed off when, for eg, limbaugh repeats the phrase "take her out" in reference to AOC, before she gets a pack of death threats.
jcgoldie
(11,623 posts)I feel like its a matter of when not if. Based on nothing concrete I feel like she's gaming out how to time this thing to have the most political effect on 2020...