well this was fucking sobering...

[Javaman]

'Existential' Risk of Climate Crisis Could Lead to Civilizational Collapse by 2050, Warns Report

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/04/existential-risk-climate-crisis-could-lead-civilizational-collapse-2050-warns-report

(here is the pdf: https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_e0416b00a4a740648407ea843c850fa6.pdf )

Even by the standards of the dire predictions given in climate studies, this one's extreme: civilization itself could be past the point of no return by 2050.

That's the conclusion from Australian climate think tank Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration, which released a report (pdf) May 30 claiming that unless humanity takes drastic and immediate action to stop the climate crisis, a combination of food production instability, water shortages, and extreme weather could result in a complete societal breakdown worldwide.

"We must act collectively," retired Australian Admiral Chris Barrie writes in the foreword to the new study. "We need strong, determined leadership in government, in business and in our communities to ensure a sustainable future for humankind."

Though the paper acknowledges that total civilizational collapse by 2050 is an example of a worst-case scenario, it stresses that "the world is currently completely unprepared to envisage, and even less deal with, the consequences of catastrophic climate change."

more at link but read the pdf.

[cilla4progress]

1. No doubt.

It's already headed that way.

[MLAA]

2. I think this article is a very conservative view. We have mush less time in my opinion.

[maryellen99]

5. What's your estimate?

[Javaman]

9. I think it will be more like 2030-35...

given the fact that as time as worn on, more and more estimates have been revising the window downward.

I recall 10 to 15 years ago it was 2 degrees maybe by 2100.

I think given the current political climate of stupidity, it has accelerated things. More over, as the pdf states, that will cause feedback to happen sooner.

there will come a break point, a winter or summer so extreme that there will be no turning back and everyone will sit up and pay attention. of course it will be way too late by that point

[maryellen99]

14. :(

[MLAA]

18. 5 years. 10 years if we are unusually lucky.

Factors like the one in this article are happening faster and faster and in some cases aren’t even factored into current climate change models. Disclosure: I am not a scientist, I am an engineer, but I do read a lot. Methane like in this article, huge dead zones in the oceans, major extinctions of animals already (and humans are just animals) and on and on.


https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2785/unexpected-future-boost-of-methane-possible-from-arctic-permafrost/

It might help if everyone stopped eating animal products. I stopped about 7 or so years ago. But it may be even too late for that to have the impact we need. So, I am trying to enjoy whatever time is left and do things I enjoy and spend time in nature.

I considered not answering your question because it is so sobering but decided better to answer and you could research and decide to believe it or not for yourself.

All the best, 🙂

[maryellen99]

20. I agree with you on that estimate:(

[MLAA]

21. one thing I am doing now given all the extreme weather that is already impacting crop plantings

I am picking up extra cans of food at the store each time I go. With all the flooding and temp swings this spring it will have to eventually impact availability- price of corn etc.

That old Chinese curse goes ‘May you live in interesting times’ 😉

[MineralMan]

3. Global population will hit 9.8 billion by 2050.

Every human being uses energy. Global climate change is caused by people. By 2100, global population would reach 11.2 billion, if some disaster did not drastically change population growth.

See the chart below. Population is the reason for global climate change. If population growth does not slow down, those predictions are probably correct. Meanwhile, the Roman Catholic Church still fights against all contraception. There it is, folks.

[roamer65]

13. I've been advocating population control for 30 years.

No one will listen to it until it’s way too late.

Population reduction won’t happen peacefully, it will be via the greatest “show” in human history.

World War III.

Don’t bring children into it, folks.

[MineralMan]

17. Five years after I was born Global population was just 2.5 Billion

I was born in 1945. Now, I'm 73 years old and the population has risen to 7.7 billion. If that doesn't alarm anyone, they're not paying any attention at all. The population on this planet has tripled in only about 50 years.

Shocking! Scary! Almost unbelievable.

[Calculating]

15. Yup

Overpopulation is the purple sparkling elephant in the room that nobody dares to mention or talk about. Unfortunately other efforts at addressing climate change and resource over-exploitation are nearly futile unless we can do something about the underlying issue of population growth.

[MLAA]

19. Knowing what most could know now about how we've destroyed the planet (if they chose to research it)

I am surprised anyone in the so called developed world would choose to have children now.

[Turin_C3PO]

23. It's not really the developed world that's contributing to overpopulation.

It’s mostly developing countries with the high birth-rates, some influenced by the Catholic Church.

[MLAA]

25. Understand, but we use way more resources per capital 😉

[Turin_C3PO]

26. Very true.

Our carbon footprint is outrageous.

[MLAA]

27. It just surprises me young people are still anxious to bring children into the world

given how short our future is and the suffering they will face. 🙁

[Turin_C3PO]

28. I guess the biological imperative to procreate

is too embedded in our DNA to overcome. That’s my theory anyway lol.

[MLAA]

29. That plus too much wine😬

[BSdetect]

4. The current political vision is missing as leaders fail to accept reality.

[Act_of_Reparation]

7. Leaders fail to accept reality because voters fail to accept reality.

It's tempting to pin the blame on a few high-profile terrible people, but the truth of the matter is that those clowns serve at our discretion. If the American people wanted to fix climate change, it would have been fixed a long fucking time ago.

[Shell_Seas]

6. This sucks, I plan on still being alive in 2050.

[shanny]

8. Yep.

And the worst thing about that is in previous climate models the "worst case" is never bad enough.

[NewJeffCT]

10. This will be the future

[Javaman]

11. probably without the feathers though...

I don't see many birds making it, but then there are vultures. they will do well.

[PufPuf23]

12. Was thinking Mad Max as I scrolled down the thread and came to your post.

Not that hard to predict o Mad Max theme for the not-so-distant future resulting from a trifecta of climate change, disease, and war.

The scale of humanity requires massive amounts of natural resources to survive.

[Calculating]

16. Cool

There are worse things that could happen than real life mad max.

[Initech]

24. Ooh ooh!!!! Can I be the flaming guitar player guy?

[former9thward]

22. Neither author is a scientist.

Let alone a climate scientist. If a paper was written giving the opposite conclusion that would be the criticism.

[lpbk2713]

30. I worry for my grandchildren.

It won't be a nice place.