NOAA's New Global Model: How Does It Handle Tropical Cyclones?

[malaise]

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/NOAAs-New-Global-Model-How-Does-It-Handle-Tropical-Cyclones?cm_ven=cat6-widget
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A major upgrade to the global workhorse in NOAA’s suite of numerical weather prediction models became official on Wednesday. The Global Forecast System (GFS) has switched to a new dynamical core for the guidance it generates, which extends out to 16 days (384 hours) and is updated every 6 hours. Tests show that the new finite-volume cubed-sphere dynamical core (FV3)—which has been running in test mode since last year—will bring a number of improvements to prediction of various weather features, including tropical cyclones.

“This is a major milestone in our ongoing effort to deliver the very best forecast products and services to the nation,” said acting NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs in a press briefing on Wednesday.

FV3 is the biggest core change to NOAA’s flagship global weather prediction model since it was introduced as the Global Spectral Model in 1980 and reconstituted as the GFS in 2002. FV3 will also serve as the anchor to NOAA’s Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). The system “will be the foundation for the operating forecast guidance system for the next several decades,” said NOAA in a 2014 summary paper that kicked off the NGGPS development.

As of Wednesday, the new GFS was running operationally with a version of FV3 that addressed several bugs that gained notice earlier this year, including a tendency to run too cold in the lower atmosphere and to produce unrealistically high snow totals in some situations. “We’re seeing a reduced cold bias, but [it] hasn’t been completely eliminated,” said Brian Gross, head of the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, at the press briefing.

Depiction of FV3 model grid structure
Figure 1. Rather than narrowing at a point, as traditional model grids do at the North and South poles, the FV3 finite-volume cubed-sphere grid converges onto a inlaid higher-resolution grid that can be located as desired on the globe. In the example shown here, the higher-resolution grid is positioned to include Hurricane Sandy while it was near the Bahamas in October 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

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Bravo NOAA

[Hortensis]

1. If it pleases you down there, I'm pleased also. :)

And we're off for 2019. Let's hope sorta Tropical Storm Barry was an auger. We could use a break.

[malaise]

2. Anything that improves forecasting is good

for all of us.

Got all the batteries yesterday. It's a good time to replace emergency stuff before they start raising prices.

[Hortensis]

3. Absolutely. Like those rapid intensifiers.

[jpak]

4. The GFS has played second fiddle to the ECMWF (European Model) for some time

Let's hope this is a game changer.

[malaise]

5. Had the same thought