World population to near zero growth by the end of the century: Pew Research

[True Dough]

This isn't the sort of projection I've become accustomed to reading about due to the abundance of apocalyptic articles out there...

For the first time in modern history, the world’s population is expected to virtually stop growing by the end of this century, due in large part to falling global fertility rates, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of new data from the United Nations.

By 2100, the world’s population is projected to reach approximately 10.9 billion, with annual growth of less than 0.1% – a steep decline from current levels. Between 1950 and today, the world’s population grew between 1% and 2% each year, with the number of people rising from 2.5 billion to more than 7.7 billion.

The global fertility rate is expected to be 1.9 births per woman by 2100, down from 2.5 today. The rate is projected to fall below the replacement fertility rate (2.1 births per woman) by 2070. The replacement fertility rate is the number of births per woman needed to maintain a population’s size.

The world’s median age is expected to increase to 42 in 2100, up from the current 31 – and from 24 in 1950. Between 2020 and 2100, the number of people ages 80 and older is expected to increase from 146 million to 881 million. Starting in 2073, there are projected to be more people ages 65 and older than under age 15 – the first time this will be the case. Contributing factors to the rise in the median age are the increase in life expectancy and falling fertility rates.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/

[Sherman A1]

1. Me thinks

It will be far too late.....

[True Dough]

3. I'm not going to be around to see it.

But I won't join the "hopeless" camp. There have been predictions of armageddon for eons. We're still here.

Climate change is a daunting problem but human ingenuity could prevail. There could be a solution that we haven't even conceived of yet.

[NeoGreen]

5. I agree, this could end up being a...

...best case scenario/projection, in regards to when the decline will begin.

[sandensea]

2. I hope so.

This is a marked improvement from estimates from 30 years ago, when it was believed this milestone would be reached in 2150 - and at 15 billion people.

No thanks to Rapepublicans though, who think birth control is a sin - and that giving assistance to mothers with brown children is an even worse one.

[True Dough]

4. In fairness

the Republicans have been trying to do their share of population control via gun-friendly legislation.

[sandensea]

7. Drop in a bucket, though

Effective birth control policies can prevent, I figure, around 200 times the number of births, as the number of added deaths they get from lax gun laws.

But sometimes I suspect they're actually sadists, who prefer seeing people born - to later suffer and die - than having them not be born at all.

Lot of sick puppies in this world.

[Moostache]

6. Nope...world population growth is going to go negative by 2050 or sooner...

The impact of climate change has been downplayed and presented in overly optimistic terms for decades longer than it should have...we are seeing impacts everywhere today - floods, storms, +40 degree changes in the arctic temperatures!

(that is NOT a typo either...)
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/climate/greenland-ice-sheet-melting.html

We are going to see some really evil things in the coming decades. Nukes WILL get used. Billions WILL starve or die in resource wars and suppressed migration attempts to flee climate rocked and inhospitable regions. And that's just for openers...

Does ANYONE believe that modern society is structured in ANY WAY to accommodate a nearly 8-FOLD increase in Octogenarians (from 140+ million now to nearly 900+ million in the future)? In the USA, caring for the aging is already at crisis levels for those in need of or attempting to provide care....too many patients, not enough nurses, not enough facilities, not enough money to go around...

If the climate and aging are not enough to collapse society, the near total loss of jobs to automation in scores of current jobs is going to also rock everyone's world.

Pick the worst parts of disaster movies from the past and amplify them and you will be close to what is coming right for us... Things are gonna get REAL BAD, REAL FAST... I fear humanity's collective response will make WWI and WWII seem quaint by comparison.

[Loki Liesmith]

10. This one is a climate scientist and you should listen to them.

[Doodley]

12. Agreed. It's grim, and it's hard to see how it will be avoided.

[Bradshaw3]

8. They are presuming humans will last till the end of the century

With climate change and psychos in charge of nukes, not a certainty.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

9. I recently read

Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson. It's excellent. They make a strong case that the planet's population is going to level out earlier and at a lower level than the prediction you're quoting. Already most of the world is reproducing well below the replacement level. There are a a number of countries in Asia and Africa that still has high birth rates, but in almost every single one those birth rates are dropping precipitously.

There are countries that already have declining populations. Japan is the one people talk about, but their population has just barely begun to shrink. Greece's population is down. So is Germany by a very small amount. Spain right now is holding steady but will begin to lose population by the middle of this century. Likewise Italy. China's population has levelled out and will start declining by the middle of the century. Hungary is already in a sharp downward direction. Likewise Portugal.

I'm simply looking at population pyramids for what I said above. Here's a link. https://www.populationpyramid.net/ Lots of fascinating stuff to look at and link to from that page.

Oh, and look at the disparity between males and females at some of those pyramids. People talk about how terrible the shortage of women is in China, but look at Saudi Arabia. One can only conclude that there is deliberate and very widespread something, either selective abortion or outright abandonment/murder of female infants, or that they ship many of them away, or maybe just don't count them. The pyramid for Saudi Arabia seems far less balanced than that of China.

[True Dough]

11. Very informative

Thanks for contributing and for the link!

[Trailrider1951]

14. Thank you for posting this! Very informative

And look at the United Arab Emirates! Holy shit where did all the women and girls go?

[Doodley]

13. Even without the dangers of climate change, nukes, etc., the robots are coming.

Artificial intelligence will increasingly replace human companionship, reducing the desire for real relationships and real offspring.

[Coventina]

15. I love this thread and all the responses. The sooner we go away, the better for the planet.

No one will miss us but dogs.

And, in a few generations, they'll go back to being wolves and won't care anymore.