Chances of October 2019 shutdown?

Looking for informed conjecture from other DUers — how likely do you think it is that we’ll have another Federal govt. shutdown this fall?

Supposedly there has been some effort to keep us from going over a “fiscal cliff,” and maybe the Republicans’ appetite for this kind of cruel melodrama has diminished. But there is an appropriations fight looming, and I don’t trust them at all to negotiate in good faith.

I confess, my reason for asking is partly selfish — we have an October family trip planned to the Southwestern U.S., which will be considerably less fun if national parks & monuments are closed to the public. Plans B and C include trips to state parks and more citified activities.

Found the sources below — anybody have better information to share?

https://www.govexec.com/management/2019/08/senate-sends-2-year-budget-deal-trump-shifting-focus-shutdown-averting-spending-bills/158875/

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/congress-funding-bill-1681071