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Thu Aug 29, 2019, 08:38 PM

A key voting bloc sours on Trump: White non-college educated women

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/29/1882299/-A-key-voting-bloc-sours-on-Trump-White-non-college-educated-women

A key voting bloc sours on Trump: White non-college educated women
Kerry Eleveld
Daily Kos Staff
Thursday August 29, 2019 · 5:06 PM EDT


Trump's entire 2020 election strategy rests on firing up his base and turning those voters out in droves. But what if a voting bloc he won handily in 2016 is showing serious signs of Trump fatigue, regret, and even revulsion? That is exactly the case among non-college educated white women.

As journalist Ronald Brownstein notes, every quality data source showed Trump winning non-college educated white women by more than 20 points. Pew, for instance, had Trump winning the bloc by 23 points, 56% to 33% for Clinton. The 2016 exit polls showed Trump winning white non-college women by 27 points, 61% to 34%.

This week's Quinnipiac poll, however, showed Trump underwater with non-college white women by 6 points, according to Brownstein. In fact, Brownstein first noted the trend in July when he wrote about a series of focus groups conducted by Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg in small towns and rural communities. Greenberg said that while white working-class men were mostly sticking by Trump, white working-class women had been turned off by Trump's divisive racial and ideological message.

“The white working-class men look like they are approaching the 2016 margins for Trump, but not the women,” Greenberg told Brownstein. “Clearly the women are in a different place.” For instance, the report notes that these women often said Trump's rhetoric sounded “racist” or “ignorant," even though many do believe there's a crisis at the border.

Following a July poll from Quinnipiac, The Washington Post's Greg Sargent reached out to the polling outfit for some cross tabs on a question about the likelihood of voters casting a ballot for Trump. The poll found that a plurality of white non-college educated women said they would "definitely not vote" for Trump, at 47%, compared to 43% saying the definitely would vote for him, leaving Trump -3 points underwater with the demographic. Their male counterparts were much more bullish on Trump, with 48% vowing to vote for Trump while 34% pledged not to.

Chart showing 47% of white non-college women pledging not to vote for Trump while only 43% pledged that they would vote for him.

That trend continued in this week's Q poll, with both Biden and Sanders winning the demographic against Trump while Elizabeth Warren trails them narrowly, according to Brownstein.

That's a far cry from winning white non-college educated women by 20-plus points in 2016.

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Reply A key voting bloc sours on Trump: White non-college educated women (Original post)
babylonsister Aug 2019 OP
brer cat Aug 2019 #1

Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Thu Aug 29, 2019, 10:47 PM

1. That sounds like good news.

However, I will always remember a woman telling me in Nov 2016, "Trump terrifies me, but of course we voted for him." Republicans are too conditioned to always vote for the candidate with an R, and the "we" was a big tell...she votes in lock step with her husband.

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