Is life sustainable in th Carribean?

[OAITW r.2.0]

Long term..
Climate change. Puerto Rico, Bahamas*


*I know PR coúld possibly survive, but at what cost?

How many human lives will the next Dorian take?

Why aren't we offering refuge now?

[jberryhill]

1. Over 44 million people inhabit the Caribbean

There are tremendous geographical differences between, say, Cuba and Bonaire.

Human life on earth is not sustainable long term.

[Ghost Dog]

28. The Bahamas and Puerto Rico are in the Atlantic Ocean, however...

Do they actually teach any geography in US schools?

[malaise]

43. True for the Bahamas

but a significant part of Puerto Rico is in the Caribbean

[Ghost Dog]

44. Yes/ Like Cuba and Hispaniola.

[malaise]

45. Cuba as well

Interestingly Barbados is not in the Caribbean but you'd never know, while few ever think about the ABC islands which (like Jamaica) are completely in the Caribbean.
Likewise many Central American countries have Caribbean coastlines.

[bdamomma]

46. probably not

if you show a map to anyone (not all) would they even know what country they are looking at it?

tRump doesn't know, to be ignorant is bliss now if he doesn't have a hotel or golf club he wouldn't know or even care.

and they are poo pooing on higher education, dumb down the masses and they are easier to manipulate.

[ornotna]

2. Should we start evacuating Florida as well?

Bahamas are 50 miles away. Fifty. Is life sustainable in south Florida?

[TexasBushwhacker]

3. But Florida isn't an island

Given enough warning and if they have the means, Floridians can evacuate to a safer area.

[ornotna]

5. Evacuation isn't the issue

Sustainability is.

[at140]

4. There are reasons why America was the last continent to

be occupied by civilization. There are earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes galore, extreme weather, sink holes, forest fires caused by lightening, river floods, droughts. Very few places in Asia or Europe have all of these calamities together. United States does fine to survive in spite of all that because of advanced civilization and wealth. Poorer countries like Haiti & Bahamas have tough time coping with natural disasters.

[Ahpook]

6. I am sure sea levels have a play

and I am certainly not an engineer but, what about underground homes?

On edit: The reason I mention that is I went to a partially underground school near Washington DC, Terraset. A hurricane wouldn't touch it!

[at140]

8. More costly to build underground structures.....

compared to a house built on top of ground. Not every one can afford those.

[Ahpook]

10. Ok

I did not know that.

[Lochloosa]

9. Build a house underground in FL and you have a swimming pool

[Yavin4]

21. Native Americans would beg to differ with your post. n/t

[Joe941]

47. +1

[CentralMass]

23. China and India are up there as well.

[NCLefty]

24. Which civilization are you referring to? There were people here when Europeans arrived.

[at140]

34. The type of civilization who could

build pyramids, Tajmahal, railroads, skyscrapers, vaccines, electricity, telegraphs, central heating, etc

[jberryhill]

37. Some of the stupidity evident in this thread is impressive

[at140]

40. Your familiarity with time scale needs to improve

Human beings originated in Africa many million years ago.
Cities and agriculture has existed in Asia 15,000 years ago.
Written documents have been around before pyramids were built in Egypt.
The number zero was invented by a mathematician in India before Christ was born.

What exactly existed in America (meaning United States & Canada) 1000 years ago?

[raccoon]

27. You should've put civilization in quotes, considering

How the “civilized” treated the indigenous people and the slaves forced to work for them.

[Ghost Dog]

30. That is by definition "civilized", apparently:

A civilization or civilisation (see English spelling differences) is any complex society characterized by urban development, social stratification imposed by a cultural elite, symbolic systems of communication (for example, writing systems), and a perceived separation from and domination over the natural environment.

Civilizations are intimately associated with and often further defined by other socio-politico-economic characteristics, including centralization, the domestication of both humans and other organisms, specialization of labour, culturally ingrained ideologies of progress and supremacism, monumental architecture, taxation, societal dependence upon farming and expansionism...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilization

[at140]

41. Very good post, defining obvious interpretation of "civilization"...nt

[at140]

35. Agreed, but please see post #34

[bdamomma]

49. the Bahamas is not exactly a poor country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_Bahamas

The Bahamas is the richest country in the West Indies and the third wealthiest country in the Americas. It is a stable, developing nation in the Lucayan archipelago with a population of 391,232 (2016) and an economy heavily dependent on tourism and offshore banking. Steady growth in tourism receipts and a boom in construction of new hotels, resorts, and residences had led to solid GDP growth for many years, but the slowdown in the US economy and the attacks of September 11, 2001 held back growth in these sectors in 2001-03. Financial services constitute the second-most important sector of the Bahamian economy, accounting for about 15% of GDP. However, since December 2000, when the government enacted new regulations on the financial sector, many international businesses have left the Bahamas. Manufacturing and agriculture together contribute approximately 10% of GDP and show little growth, despite government incentives for those sectors. Overall growth prospects in the short run rest heavily on the fortunes of the tourism sector, which depends on growth in the US, the source of more than 80% of the visitors. In addition to tourism and banking, the government supports the development of a "2nd-pillar", e-commerce.

[at140]

57. Rich is relative to others

And yes I have been to Bahamas several times, and it definitely looks better than most other Caribbean countries I have visited. But still poor compared to USA, Canada, Germany & France.

[OAITW r.2.0]

7. Wow, I will sleep better knowing this.

Except, we don't make much of anything no more. Institutional memory of how to manufacture is dying out.

Guess where it's not? China and India.

I was part of the best US manufacturing in the 90:s.... IMHO. The best collection of DE/ME folks that got it. Fast to market, fast to manufacture for profit.

It don't exist here anymore.

[at140]

11. Have you noticed human history?

The common thread in history is rise and fall of empires. India & China once had (1000 years ago) the highest GDP in the world. Then they fell by the wayside. Europe rose up. And then North America reached top of power and wealth. But history repeats. We are now on the way down, Asia is on the way up. Within last 5 years, I have traveled to Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, India, Vietnam and Philippines. These countries look nothing like they did just 25 years ago. Flying back from Singapore airport back to San Francisco International, I felt like going to a less prosperous place.

[OAITW r.2.0]

12. 1st time in China - 1992.

I came home and told my then wife, "our kids better learn Mandarin",. I was stunned at the rapd growth rates from 92-16. Overwhelming...But, in this era of climate change, along with internal politics, and stupid external economic pressure,. China will have to refocus on their internal markets.

[at140]

13. China is following a natural cycle

After WWII, it was poor. It could not depend on internal markets. First thing first, China had to build wealth first by exporting to richer countries. With the gargantuan trade surpluses, China is much richer now, and by natural progression, it's internal markets will get bigger. Same thing is happening in India. The middle class is like 10 times bigger than it was on independence day 1947.

[OAITW r.2.0]

14. India graduates more doctoral degrees than we do undergraduates.

Let that sink in......

[at140]

15. India has been big on education going back 2500 years

World's first university was in Varanasi, India 2500 years ago. So I am not surprised.

[jberryhill]

29. India has more illiterates than we have high schoolers

What a dumb statistic. India has 1.3 billion people.

[at140]

36. India middle class is estimated at 400+ million

That is bigger than entire population here.

[jberryhill]

53. Actually, I need to revise that - India has more illiterates than the US has PEOPLE!

The literacy rate in India is around 74%.

.26 x 1.3B = 338 Million illiterates

[at140]

56. Probably farm workers who do not need to be literate?

or other menial jobs such as cleaning streets and parks.

The fact remains India is graduating more scientists and engineers than most others.
Which is why there are so many Indians here in United States working in high paying jobs.
Did you know as a ethnic group, Indians in USA have higher net worth than any other ethnic group?

[lunasun]

16. Yes. Have heard that remark from people retuning from the east more and more to Chicago (home)

This feels like the second world country now when they step off back home here

When I was in the east approx. 20 years ago I felt like I was in a futuristic film at some places but then other areas were like 1930.
I heard now so much that’s old is gone in the bigger cities replaced by ultra modern and I would not recognize it Rapid change in the last 20

I once read someone commenting that the place to be
In 1820 was London
In 1920was New York
In 2020 is Singapore

[at140]

17. Thanks, and here is a thought..

learn from other's mistakes since you won't have time to make them all yourself.
And by the same token, learn why some are doing well, and follow their example instead of looking for their faults.

[OAITW r.2.0]

19. Makes sense.

I would have argued Hong Kong 2 years ago, but current events makes me think world markets may bail on HK. I hope not...

[bdamomma]

50. tRump

is going to make China great again.

Read this article:

https://www.alternet.org/2019/09/trump-is-losing-much-more-than-just-a-trade-war-hes-losing-the-future/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1414

snip of article:

China is using Trump’s gratuitous trade war to expand its economic, diplomatic and military influence. And it is succeeding, diminishing America’s influence, especially in the Western Pacific and India. The long-term cost to America in lost opportunities and ultimately diminished economic growth will be catastrophic.

[democratisphere]

18. Land along the entire Atlantic and Gulf Coasts is not sustainable

and should also be uninsurable. Why should the many continually pay for the few who are idiots?!

[OAITW r.2.0]

20. That should be THE most important focus of Congress.

An infrastructure plan that addresses coastal population centers, as well as river infrastructure.
.
But who to hire to do this work?We are at almost full employment and we need lots of tough, smart people to build this. Oh yrah, immigrants from SA.

[NickB79]

22. The past time we had 400ppm of CO2, sea levels were 50+ ft higher

That was the Pliocene, 3.5 million years ago.

And at current emission rates, we'll be at 600ppm in 50 years, implying we could ultimately see even more rise.

Short of a wondertech fix or geoengineering, we know how this will end. It will take centuries, but the seas will rise.

[roamer65]

25. No.

Within 50-100 years, most of the islands will be under water., as will most of Florida.

[Ghost Dog]

31. Island High Points of the Caribbean Region:

https://www.peakbagger.com/list.aspx?lid=15105

[bdamomma]

52. thanks for posting

very interesting site.

[Amishman]

32. Of course, building standards just need to take into account extreme weather

Insulated Concrete Forms (ICF) should become the new standard there and elsewhere. The beachfront ICF house that survived hurricane Michael in Mexico Beach is a perfect example.

[RobinA]

54. Not Only Building Standards

but the entire infrastructure including disaster planning. I'm no expert on the Bahamas, but considering that getting hit by The Big One was going to happen at some point, they seem to have been tragically unprepared. It's one thing for New Orleans to get inundated, they are connected to a big country in which to disperse people and from which to gather resources. The Bahamas are a bunch of islands that a Category 5 was going to hit sooner or later. What were they going to do?

The only way for these islands to be sustainable, at least until submerged, is to figure out to deal with the inevitable n an effective way.

Correct if I'm wrong. Please!

[HAB911]

33. All the islands will be scoured to the ground

BEFORE sea level rise swamps them

[jberryhill]

38. You should get out more

[HAB911]

39. I get out a lot

I should have defined, human habitat scoured, unless everyone invests in CAT5 buildings.

[NickB79]

42. Scoured, as in arable land eroded to bedrock by superstorms

Look at Haiti for a modern-day example of what happens when forests are cleared and hurricanes hit.

[Joe941]

48. very ignorant and possibly racist.

[pecosbob]

51. Why stop the discussion at the Carribean?

There are 2-3 billion people living within fifty miles of the coast in China and India and the rest of southeast Asia...where are they going to move to?

[maxsolomon]

55. low-lying inhabited islands won't be. they'll be under the sea.

mountainous islands will be.

we aren't offering "refuge" because we're racist and being run by racists. we'll spend trillions to bail out rich white people who own coastal property, though.