Realisticly, what's going to happen?

[Shell_Seas]

Even if the house does impeach. Does anyone really believe even just one Republican will turn on their party? I don't

[bearsfootball516]

1. I doubt the Senate convicts, or McConnell even brings it to a vote.

He wants to protect vulnerable Republicans.

But impeaching him in the house is a pretty huge stain, and it could impact the votes of moderates and independents, which makes it worth it.

[cynatnite]

13. Does Moscow Mitch have a choice on that?

I thought that following impeachment, the senate would have no choice but to take it up.

[LexVegas]

2. Trump will lose handily in the 2020 election. nt

[Tipperary]

14. That was said about him before.

Not counting any chickens just yet.

[Cha]

19. I never count chickens, either.. learned

the hard way..

But, trump did lose in 2018 when we got our Democratic House Victory which we wouldn't even be having this conversation now without it!

[Moostache]

3. Trump is toxic now...the GOP is just waiting for the damn to burst

I think a lot of people may be surprised by Thanksgiving...

If not, it does not matter - Impeachment is a tool to check the Executive Branch, it is NOT a weapon or a tactic or frankly a choice. The GOP found that out when they sought revenge for Nixon by cravenly using impeachment against Clinton under clearly non-serious pretenses.

Things here are different in many ways, but most importantly in the severity of the crimes. A blow job and a lie is not even the same sport as throwing your country's security under the bus to extort favors from a nation-state in peril.

This is NOT a choice, this is the responsible and only course of action to take, period.

[MineralMan]

4. Yes. Some Republicans will flip.

Not many, perhaps, but some.

That's not the point, however. By laying out the evidence for an impeachment, the public will understand better what has been going on. You might remember that there's an election coming up next year, during which that public will be making decisions on how to vote.

[Claritie Pixie]

5. It depends on public sentiment.

No one knows what will happen.

If more and more Americans, importantly Republican voters are for impeachment as this goes on, the GOP will save themselves first and drop him like a hot potato.

Senate GOP could very well convict him.

[fleur-de-lisa]

6. I think the purpose of the impeachment inquiry is to damage Trump irreparably before the election.

They could drag out the inquiry until next summer or early fall. They already have 6 investigations of Trump ongoing.

I doubt if the House will ever hand off the impeachment to the Senate. And there may be no need to do so.

Trump can then be prosecuted by New York State and hopefully the Feds when he is a private citizen.

[Grammy23]

7. Some recent polling (done the last 24 hours or so)

Suggests that the tide is turning against tRump. Will it be enough to convince all of his faithful? I doubt it. But it could be enough to turn up the heat on the Republican holdouts in Congress who insist on defending him. At the beginning of Watergate, Nixon had the support of his party. By the end, only the hard core Repubs still stood by him. tRump is making the mistake of thinking he can stay ahead of this shift but he is wrong. Truth will bury him and all of his flailing, pissing and moaning won’t save him. He was on thin ice to begin with for some of his tribe. Now that the thaw has begun, they will abandon him. Not a happy thought for him but he’d better get used to it.

Nancy and her crew need to turn up the heat, get the story out and keep hammering the truth. No need to drag things out for months. They have the goods on him. He has done enough damage. Now get the job done.

[customerserviceguy]

8. It all depends on Trump's base

If they lose faith in him, then it starts to show in polling, and the GOP will decide that they can jettison Trump.

Fox News, etc. will make sure that doesn't happen. If you dare, go over there and look at the pretzels they've tied themselves into to get across the message that this isn't a big deal.

That said, should Trump make some kind of compromise with the Democratic Party, or even offer one, then a Sean Hannity or Rush Limbaugh may decide to defect, and they can take a lot of their followers with them, especially if they are quick to back Pence.

If Trump holds his ground, as I expect him to do, then I expect that he will not be removed by the Senate. GOP Senators have to take the choice that says let the chips fall where they may for the general election, but I don't want the dishonor and/or humiliation of losing in a primary. That's what's made Mark Sanford so sullen that he wouldn't endorse the woman who successfully primaried him for his House seat, and she lost by less than four thousand votes in a district that had been held by the GOP since 1981.

Trump may win this battle but lose the war next year.

[dansolo]

9. McConnell desperately wants to hold on to the Senate

I believe that if things look really bad, McConnell will allow certain Senators who are facing close elections in 2020 to vote for impeachment, but he won't allow a conviction.

If McConnell looks shaky in his re-election bid, they may decide to turn on both of them.

[Downtown Hound]

10. Trump will be impeached, the Senate will not convict

Trump will get his butt kicked next year. He will be indicted for a whole host of crimes when he leaves office.

[maxsolomon]

11. Yes, R-Money will vote to convict.

His seat is extremely safe; he can play the righteous man.

[Kablooie]

12. I'm hoping that they uncover enough illegal behavior that 20 Rs flip.

If it becomes apparent that the future will see supporting Trump As supporting crime some of them might turn.

[TidalWave46]

15. I do.

If we present it well and the national security aspect being presented now hold up under scrutiny and become corroborated by other evidence.

This will be the first President to be impeached as a national security risk for doings with foreign countries. This was the framers greatest concern. Not a president lying about a blowjob but a president using the office for personal gain without the interest of the nation at heart.

[BlueWI]

16. Even if Republicans don't play ball

the rogue actions by this president are coming to light, and the press will have a field day. Any sentient politician will have a private recognition of the gravity of this scandal, and defenders other than Lindsey Graham are going to be reduced in numbers and face real political risks. If Democrats build a strong campaign on the back of impeachment, acquittal won't matter nearly as much.

[NCLefty]

17. If we get a few more traitorous transcripts... just maybe...

*fingers crossed*

[Garrett78]

18. If Democrats get the server on which the Ukraine call and other calls were hidden...

...and the various witnesses testify to wrongdoing on the part of Trump, we'll undoubtedly see some Republican Senators vote to convict. It's hard to imagine 20 of them doing so, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.

It'll be interesting to see what impact, if any, this has on Trump's remarkably steady approval rating. Nixon's plummeted, but this is a different era and Trump has a cult following (no predecessor has had an approval rating that has been even close to as steady as Trump's has been). Still, if we see Trump's approval rating drop into the low 30s, Republicans in the Senate may be more likely to convict.