Bounce Expectations

[marked50]

Not trying to rain on anyones parade but want to put my two cents worth on what to expect with any poll increases for Obama after/during the DNC convention.

I believe that the electorate is so solidified in their positions that we shouldn't expect the 6-7% undecideds to break any significant way one way or the other. If you assume that these few people are swingable in large percentages one way or another then you are mistaken.

This demography is most likely similar to the general population, hence the most you could get is a 3-4% increase on top of Obama's 47% now. Realistically, it would be somewhat less since these people would still not claim any movement any way or another- so shave it to 2-3% - Not a margin people will be screaming Happy Days over.

Don't count on any of Romney's supporters in these polls to be "converted". Love hearing the stories about Repubs becoming Dems but I'm sure it's not happening in any large swing significance.

I really hope the bounce is big but I don't expect it, so can only be happily surprised.

[cilla4progress]

1. You base this on what?

Belated welcome to DU!

[marked50]

2. thanks for the welcome

Have been here for awhile- just not real good on posts, etc.

The Obama support numbers are from Gallup- my averaging. Also adding the Romney ones you get 93% that have made up their minds. That leaves 7% "undecided". I have seen other polls saying the number is 6%- hence my 6-7%. The makeup of these along party lines (ultimately) is only my guess- (According to Gallup data 29% of electorate identify as Repub vs 31% for Dem- sort of evenly divided).

Now I know Gallup numbers can debated vs other polls but I use them as guideline only. So I just halved the 6-7% number as potential upside on the polls for people influenced by the Convention as follows.

Thus 3-3.5% would be what you see assuming that the entire undecided pool would shift on demographic lines.

I think the entire pool will not be affected by this directly and pared it down to the 2-3% number supporting the Dems (using a 60% of 6-7% gives you 3.6-4.2% affected one way or the other) . Using that you get 1.8-2.1 % for Dems- I just rounded up and added a little on the positive side. Again, these are only my guesses and not statistically based.

[dawg]

3. We don't need much of a bounce.

We may very well still be ahead in the electoral college at the peak of the Repubican bounce(let). If we can erase whatever bounce they got, and then sustain that through election day, then we're golden.

Of course, I'm predicting a 5% bounce that will fade back to a permanent 1-2% advantage over pre-Republican convention numbers. But I'm being kind of an optimist there.