North Dakota Seat Isn't a Cinch for the GOP
Senate Race Finds Democrat Heitkamp Surprisingly Close in the Right-Leaning State Where Romney Is a Heavy Favorite
By JACK NICAS
BISMARCK, N.D.—Republicans are counting on North Dakota to help them gain a majority in the U.S. Senate, but the peculiarity of the politics in the conservative-leaning state is putting a GOP victory in question.
With longtime Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad retiring, many political handicappers pegged Republican Rep. Rick Berg early on as a solid bet to pick up the seat, which would give the GOP one of the four seats it needs to win a Senate majority. Polls suggest Mitt Romney is a virtual lock to win the state in November, and Mr. Berg, as North Dakota's sole representative in the House, is already a proven winner in a statewide campaign.
But since Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, the state's former attorney general, entered the race in November, she has made it into an unexpectedly tough fight. Independent polls show Mr. Berg with only a narrow lead, and election forecasters from the Beltway to the Great Plains are rating the contest a tossup. The race is taking on increased importance as another Senate seat Republicans considered an easy pickup, Missouri's, has been thrown into doubt by controversy over comments by the Republican candidate, Rep. Todd Akin, about rape.
Political analysts in North Dakota say voters here, despite their conservative bent, often choose personalities over party politics. With fewer than 700,000 residents in the state, a candidate can win an election with just 160,000 votes, and many voters get to vet their candidates in person.
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