From our friends at CNN

[spanone]

All corruption aside....

[underpants]

1. They gotta have two horses in the race

[Blue_Tires]

10. And that stupid mindset stuck us with Donnie in the first place...

Four years later and nobody learned shit

[Efilroft Sul]

2. And that path winds through Russia.

[Faux pas]

3. I can't stand

chris cillizza any way.

[Captain Stern]

4. trump does have a path to a second term. No need to shoot the messenger for saying so.

First of all, here's a link to the actual article:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/06/politics/donald-trump-economic-numbers/index.html

Secondly, I think it's a mistake to think, in any way, that the 2020 election is going to be a slam dunk for us.

trump is a shitty President, and he shouldn't be reelected. But, he was also a shitty candidate that should never have been elected in the first place......yet, here we are.

It's still early, but as far as the betting odds go, trump is currently favored to win...and it's not super close.

The betting odds as of yesterday:

Trump +125
Biden +550
Buttigieg +625
Sanders +800
Warren +850

(That means that if you bet $100 on trump to win, you'll get $125 back + your original $100 if he wins)

Of course that doesn't take into account that only one (hopefully) of the other candidates will actually be running against him. And that (hopefully) all of the people that support any Democrat now will support the eventual Democratic nominee.

In any case, this election is going to be close. And I don't have a problem with CNN or anybody else pointing that out

[rockfordfile]

5. I do because it's just propaganda

[Captain Stern]

6. What makes you think that?

I thought it was a joke that trump ran in the first place.

I thought it was hilarious the trump actually won the republican primary. I thought we'd been given an easy layup. I mocked the ignorant bastards that actually believed that trump had a chance of winning the election.

Fool me once, shame on you....fool me twice...that's on me.

I think a strong majority of the people that voted for trump last time are going to vote for him in 2020. To beat him, we need to get everybody to the polls that voted for Clinton last time, plus a lot of other people that didn't bother voting last time.

[rockfordfile]

8. I think Americans have had enough of him

[pwb]

11. I think so too. They found out what he is.

.

[tazkcmo]

12. Turnout.

Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes. It all boils down to that. Whether you believe it's going to be a close race or you believe it's going to be a blowout, we need to increase Democratic voting turnout by a large margin. We're not just running against Donald Trump, we're also running against billions of dollars and dark money and illegal money and Russian Cyber Wars. Turn out.

[edhopper]

7. I agree with you

It's scary that he could lose by 5 million votes and still get the electoral college.

[karynnj]

9. Two problems

1) betting odds are not scientific but are the CW of people who bet. There is no reason to assume they have any greater understanding of how the vote will go than anyone else.

2) Trump is very near 100% likely to be the Republican nominee, so it is no surprise that the odds for any specific Democrat is lower as they need to win the nomination before running against Trump. That said, because you get back $125 and you $100 if you win, it means either that more people are betting for some Democrat or that Trump's chance of winning is less than 50%. (Why - otherwise the house loses money)

[Captain Stern]

13. Those aren't problems. They're observations.

I think you're absolutely right when you say betting odds are not scientific. However, when betting, people put their money where they think it will win, and they don't need to have a greater understanding of how the vote will go than anyone else.

Your second point is a good one also, but I tried to address that. The odds I posted were for individual candidates right now. Of course those odds will change after the field is narrowed to trump and one Democratic candidate.

We have a path to victory. But us having a path to victory, doesn't mean trump doesn't have a path to victory.

My overall point was that to think/say that trump doesn't have a path to victory is foolish. trump has a very real path to victory. He's got as good a chance of winning in 2020 as he did in 2016.