UK Elections: Hour-by-hour Guide

[brooklynite]

The Guardian

10pm (5 PM Eastern): The exit poll
The exit poll, unveiled on the stroke of 10pm as voting closes, is the first moment of election night to produce a tangible sense of where the voters stand. The prediction is shared by the BBC, ITV and Sky, with the data collected by asking people to cast a second replica ballot as they leave polling stations in 144 constituencies in England, Scotland, and Wales. The researchers tend to target the same constituencies every election, enabling them to pick up changes in voting behaviour.

In the past, exit polls have almost exactly predicted the final results - as 2017’s did. But sometimes they are wrong. In 1992 and 2015, they predicted a hung parliament with the Tories the largest party – and in fact the Conservatives ended up with majorities on both occasions. The fieldwork for Thursday’s exit poll will be conducted by Ipsos Mori, with tens of thousands of interviews conducted at 144 polling stations across the country.

1am – 2am: Tory target seats
The Northern Labour-held seats of Darlington, Workington, Wigan have been important targets for the Tories – if they fall, they could provide a very tentative indicator of a coming Tory majority. If Labour hold on, Jeremy Corbyn’s Downing Street dream will still be alive. “Workington man” was the construct developed by Tory think-tank Onward for the type of voter they must win over to be elected back into Government - a white, leave supporting, older male, typically living in a rugby league supporting town. Two YouGov polls have given conflicting answers about whether the constituency will go red or blue – it is on a knife-edge.

2am: Brexit Party, Portillo moment? … and Putney
The test of success for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party campaign will be revealed with the Hartlepool result. He installed his most senior candidate, party chair Richard Tice , in the hope they could win over a leave-supporting Labour heartland. If the Brexit party struggles in Hartlepool, they are likely to struggle in the rest of the 273 seats where they decided to stand.

Laura Pidcock has served as Labour MP for North West Durham since the 2017 general election. The shadow secretary of state for employment rights is regarded as Labour’s biggest name at risk of a Tory takeover from candidate Richard Holden. Pidcock’s majority over the Conservatives in 2017 was almost 9,000 votes but the seat is now considered marginal.

Marginal Putney could be one of the first major Labour gains of the night and could be a sign of a party that is gaining ground. The seat was Tory then independent when former education secretary Justine Greening lost the whip over Brexit. She holds it with a 1554 majority.

[octoberlib]

1. It sounds like there's a huge turnout. That's usually bad news for conservatives.

[dewsgirl]

3. From what I have seen on social media, I think they have a real shot

[ritapria]

4. Huge Turnout probably means younger people are showing up in big numbers

Which means good news for Labour . Let's hope so . From The Scotsman : ' Early Queues in Scotland as voters report half-hour waits at poling stations " The Scotsman reported that long voter waiting lines are being reported all across the UK despite horrible weather .

[Mike 03]

2. This is very helpful.

Thank you!

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. For anyone wondering what a 'Portillo moment' is, it's a major candidate losing their seat

as happened to Michael Portillo, Tory cabinet minister, in 1997 - when he had to stand on the stage while his loss was announced, with a clenched "take it like a good chap, for the sake of democracy" look on his face. It was the moment when the scale of the Tory loss really hit home for people who were still up.