Anyone still holding out hope that some (or any) GOP Senators will vote to convict...

[TwilightZone]

should probably start getting accustomed to the idea that none will. They will most likely follow in the House GOP's footsteps, though some (myself included) already felt that that was a foregone conclusion.

While we're at it, we should probably stop taking anything Bill Weld or Jeff Flake says about impeachment and removal seriously.

[Aristus]

1. Nope. Never happen.

If we had seven hundred monkeys, seven hundred typewriters, and seven hundred years, maybe.

It's effectively an impossibility.

[mainstreetonce]

2. Yes

A few

[Voltaire2]

3. Nope.

[rpannier]

4. Romney is probably the only chance

More likely he doesn't cast a vote, if he can

[xmas74]

6. Commentators said that in polling

Ernst, Collins and McSallee could be in danger of losing their reelection bids. The polls in their states all showed in favor and a vote against it would make the voter consider not voting for them.

[TwilightZone]

12. Collins is the only possibility of the three, and we know where usually she goes on important votes.

Ernst has voted with Trump 91% of the time. She's a no, regardless of what the polls in Iowa say. She occasionally talks a big game, then falls in line.

McSally has voted with him 95% of the time. Ditto.

[xmas74]

13. I know.

I guess it depends on how far they'll go to win.

[thegoose]

76. Collins will express concern for a couple of photo ops

And then fall into the Nazi party. She's really despicable. She's like the "Sweet Old Witch of the West."

[greatauntoftriplets]

79. Remember the hope we held out that she'd vote against repealing Obamacare?

Then she didn't and McCain hauled himself from his sickbed to give that famous that pissed off Spanky so much. She's the spineless witch of the west. I'm not holding my breath that she'll do the right thing.

[TwilightZone]

14. He might pull the "present" card

He's pretty much always running for president, even when he's not, so it'll be interesting to see how he handles this.

[trof]

77. Yeah, either that or 'abstain'.

[greatauntoftriplets]

78. That's my opinion.

But I'm not holding my breath.

[Sogo]

5. If there are 51 votes,

....he will not only have been impeached, but also convicted.....not as significant, of course, as removed at the 67 vote threshold but, indeed, SIGNIFICANT!

[TwilightZone]

10. Conviction takes 67 votes.

Not 51. Doesn't matter, because there almost assuredly won't be 51.

[Sogo]

16. I thought I read something

about the threshold for conviction being something other than for removal. Googling it now, it says 2/3 of those present.....which doesn't necessarily mean 67.....some could be no-shows.....

[TwilightZone]

18. There won't be any no-shows.

McConnell will ensure that everyone is present and accounted for.

[mucifer]

7. It's gonna be so bad

[LenaBaby61]

8. NO.

[greyl]

9. Yes .nt

[nini]

11. No. They're 'good Germans'

Now we know how Hitler was able to rise to power.

[Girard442]

15. Expecting the worst in the Senate, no matter how Nancy finesses it.

Glum about the election too. If Trump has a blank check to solicit foreign interference, who knows how far it could go?

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to work on my book, "How to survive in Occupied America." Hoping to finish it while we can still publish books.

[TwilightZone]

17. I'm more optimistic about the election.

It is, and always was, the only realistic way to get rid of him. He won in 2016 by the barest of margins with a not-insignificant chunk of the populace staying home thanks in part to a few decades of Republican propaganda and a lot of apathy.

After two years of his crap, turnout in 2018 set records and motivation on the left was (and remains) high. Comparable motivation and turnout and a comparable game plan will make it much harder to steal in 2020. The key will be getting out the vote, as it almost always is.

As for the Senate, it's not, nor has it even been, up to Nancy. The writing has been on the wall since the very beginning. Some just chose to believe that it's not crystal clear.

[Demsrule86]

21. Yep, the election is our best chance to rid the country of the orange menace.

It always was so.

[OliverQ]

22. But he gets to cheat.

Wisconsin and Georgia just purged hundreds of thousands of voters. That alone could allow him to win Wisconsin again.

[TwilightZone]

24. The court in WI requested more information before ruling.

"In a two-page order, the Court of Appeals rejected a request to immediately block a decision by Ozaukee County Circuit Judge Paul Malloy to quickly take the voters off the rolls.

Instead, the court said it wanted to hear from those who brought the lawsuit and gave them a Monday deadline to submit a filing."

(snip)

"In its ruling Wednesday, it said it was expediting the case but did not want to rule before hearing from those who brought the lawsuit."

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2019/12/18/wisconsin-appeals-court-lets-voter-roll-purge-stand-now/2691170001/

It may still stand because of a silly state law, but that won't be determined until the court rules on the case.

[Generic Brad]

19. They are going down with the ship

[OliverQ]

20. Not a single Republican will vote to convict him.

[DeminPennswoods]

23. No one knows how this will play out

If Dems can get witnesses and documents for the Senate trial that show the breadth and depth of the conspiracy, things could change very quickly just like they did when the smoking gun tape came out during Watergate.

[orangecrush]

25. THIS!!!

[TwilightZone]

29. This isn't Watergate.

And this is not the GOP of the 1970s.

"If Dems can get witnesses and documents for the Senate trial that show the breadth and depth of the conspiracy"

We've already done that. It is already crystal clear, it couldn't be more obvious, and yet exactly zero GOP members of the House voted for impeachment.

McConnell will block any new witnesses or documents, and they wouldn't matter anyway.

Circling the wagons is what they do. Trump is all they have, and their constituents, to the tune of 90+%, approve of the guy. The only possible reason - from their perspective - that they could have to vote for his removal is a burst of conscience, and that ain't gonna happen.

[DeminPennswoods]

36. I think this is not correct

Before the tapes, Rs were sticking right behind Nixon. When the tapes came out, public opinion moved quickly against Nixon and the GOP senators followed.

Americans might not have been paying all that much attention to all the hearings or reading the evidence or even watching tonight's vote, but once there's an actual trial, that's all that will be on TV. Americans love themselves a good trial. They will be tuned in en masse. This is where getting witnesses and documents makes a difference. There won't be the same histrionics as in the House committee hearings and debates. The Senators have to sit at their desks in silence, just like a real jury.

Keep in mind, most Americans can relate to a jury trial since most of us have had some personal interaction with this process either as jurors or being called for jury duty. Everyone knows how you are to keep an open mind and evaluate guilt/innocence based on the evidence presented.

The cultists are going to stick with Trump, just like 1/4 of Americans stuck with Nixon and believed he was set up and not guilty of anything.

[lastlib]

66. Agreed.

The GOPhers will treat any new evidence just like they have the evidence we already have. They will look the other direction and deny that it exists.

As Rep. Wm. Hungate so eloquently observed during the Nixon impeachment hearings (paraphrasing), they will look at an elephant and say, "that's not an elephant, it's really just a mouse with a glandular problem."

Their sole interest is power, and they will NOT vote to diminish theirs. They are being well-paid to act that way.

[PRETZEL]

43. I agree that there could easily be a game changing event

if the rules of the trial allow for witnesses and evidence to be presented.

That could certainly change some minds, especially those R's up for re-election in 2020.

But, I don't think that it will be that Nixon tapes type of event.

[DeminPennswoods]

44. Tend to agree, but with all the

cell phone technology, you never know...

[PRETZEL]

45. I'm too old school

for this new fangled technology

[DeminPennswoods]

46. Me too

nt

[liberal N proud]

26. Republicans are not serving the country

They only serve their overlords, Putin and big business

[BlueSpot]

27. I know it very likely won't happen

But I will always continue to hope.

[RandySF]

28. No

[Afromania]

30. I know I don't. Just got off a phone call with a younger cousin where I had to explain it.

We know they arent going to convict his ass, but here's the rub now. They are clearing the road for the next Democratic president/congress to go complete mf'ing gangbuster on everything that matters. Every time they even considering whining and gnashing their teeth about executive power or money, or whatever else to prevent something that will help the people. This insanity is what Dem politicians can point at.

They can point at it and tell Republicans to resoundingly shut all the way the hell up and stay that way until hell freezes over. So, yea go ahead and go ahead and continue to condone this garbage Republicans. Continue to piss people off some more and create new voters where there were none. 3 years ago I wouldn't have fielded that phone call tonight explaining this shit, but the R's are creating a true "silent majority" of people who never paid attention, or cared, before.

[TwilightZone]

35. I hope you're right.

We really, really need to win the Senate in 2020 along with the presidency (and maintain the House, of course). If we can, all bets are off as far as the agenda goes. If people who were formerly apolitical or politically apathetic help that along because of what Trump has done, all the better.

[Afromania]

38. I know its anecdotal but people in my life who never talked about politics before are up in arms.

These are people who aren't being polled, or searching out polls to respond to. The only thing they know is that there is a clear and present danger from Republicans and voting is the way to end this. I think the Republicans know it too, which is why they have become blatant in their efforts to suppress the vote.

[TwilightZone]

39. It's about all they have left.

The demographics are pushing them out in a lot of areas and suppressing turnout is the only chance they have. As 2018 demonstrated, if turnout is very high, Democrats do extremely well, even in reddish areas.

[rzemanfl]

31. I am hoping quite a few will fall ill and not be present for the vote.

That is the best chance if there is one. I'm also hoping the House dances around a while about procedure in the Senate so Drumpf can stress over it.

[TwilightZone]

58. I like that one.

The math works better if a bunch of GOP members don't show up, certainly. Perhaps we can get them to go on a trip overseas and arrange for them to be stuck there for a while.

Though, McConnell would presumably not hold a vote until they could return. Hmm.

Agree on stressing out Trump. He certainly deserves it.

[GaYellowDawg]

32. No.

Not a single GOP senator will even consider voting to convict. My guess is that 100% of Republicans vote to acquit and are joined by 2-3 Democrats.

[greyl]

33. They've shot their wad, and more evidence is on the way they can't cover for. nt

[Takket]

34. no. their best bet is to stay in lockstep.

[VOX]

37. No. They've not only drunk the Kool Aid, they've swallowed the glass and the pitcher.

Not likely in this lifetime— they exist in a reality of their own creation, which does NOT jibe with observable, measurable FACTS and LAWS.

[Vogon_Glory]

40. Neither of my Republican US senators wil carry out their duty to the US Constitution

Texas Senators Ted Cruz and John Cornyn will vote to acquit.

[TwilightZone]

41. Yep, those are mine as well.

The two closest Reps, Michael McCaul and John Carter, also voted No, of course.

I'm hoping that we manage to replace one or both in 2020, but gerrymandering has made it difficult. We're working on it.

[Bettie]

42. They are all worried about their

lobbying gigs after they leave the senate.

If they want those millions for virtually no work, they have to toe the party line and continue to carry water for the enemies of the country.

[Buckeyeblue]

47. Over the last 3 years I've learned not to be surprised

It wouldn't surprise me if the Republicans voted to dismiss the impeachment quickly. Nor would it surprise me if the Republicans tried to back door Trump and convict/remove.

It all depends on what the leadership thinks is best for their own political future.

[Lenomsky]

48. The penalty for treason is ... ?

[Nitram]

49. The hope gets weaker as the media reports in headlines the the Senate won't find Trump guilty.

They could have made an effort to be impartial and just report that he had been impeached and there was going to be trial in the Senate.

[Claritie Pixie]

50. We can all agree no one can predict the future.

A lot can happen in the next couple of weeks.

I am content with expecting the unexpected.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

51. Darned dog slobbered on my crystal ball and I can't see a thing.

Of course, mine is a cheap knock-off and never even predicted TrumPutin would be installed.

Guess I'll just hang around and experience time the old fashioned way -- serially.

[NanceGreggs]

52. It all depends ...

... on which way the political wind-socks are blowing - just as it always does with Republicans.

Think about it this way: In only ninety days, Trump has gone from invincible to impeached'. What will the next 90 days reveal - and the 90 days after that, and the 90 days after that?

We've only seen the tip of the iceberg - and you can always count on Republicans being the first in the lifeboats when they realize the Tumptanic is going down.

[DFW]

55. The trick is to convince them they are in peril

If they think their core constituencies think it's OK to shoot someone on 5th Avenue, as long the victim was a "libbrul," they will acquit a Republican of murder where they would vote to remove a Democrat from office for littering.

On the other hand, should they see a clear, solid 58-42 majority polling against them in a re-election bid, we'll all get to hear how, with a "heavy heart, they find their conscience leaves them no choice" but to convict, blah, blah. I doubt there are many of us incapable of writing that script on our own.

[TwilightZone]

57. While I agree that there's no doubt more coming...

I don't think there's much that would cause the GOP to bail on him at this point. As long as his support with their constituents is high - and it shows zero signs of wavering, frankly - they're not going anywhere. It's quite literally a cult.

People keep insisting that this is like Watergate. I disagree. I don't think the equivalent of the Nixon tapes would take Trump down.

Nixon's support wasn't based on tens of millions of cult members. The reverse equivalent would have been if Nixon's supporters had supported him because he was, in fact, a crook, and that's what they wanted him to be.

[Mme. Defarge]

53. Oui.

[RandySF]

54. No

[somaticexperiencing]

56. Yes, I'm holding out hope that first of all we get a real trial.

I'm totally behind the House using whatever powers they have to motivate a trial in the Senate that acts like a real trial. I still believe this is possible, and I believe we all should be letting our House Representatives and Senators and Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer know that that is what we are behind.

If there is anything like a real trial, all bets are off on Trump's protection.

Also, news events up till then may still weigh in.

The best we can do is let Democrats know we have their back. Call, write, be in touch in whatever way we can.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

59. Mainer here and I think Sen Collins just might vote to convict

Hard to say. I think she is going to lose her re-election no matter how she votes on that, honestly. The thing is, if she votes to convict, the Repubs will probably choose someone else in their primary. So she's out right away. If she doesn't vote to convict, maybe she'll get run in the general election, but I still think she is going to lose the general election. I'm almost certain that Sara Gideon will be the Dem running against her. She is a strong candidate who is well known in Maine because she is currently the Speaker of the Maine House. 1st district Maine (Southern Maine) is strong Dem and more populous than 2nd district Maine. 2nd district Maine is more unpredictable, more independent. This will be the first ranked choice election for Susan Collins, which means she will have to obtain 50% of the vote to win re-election. This makes it even more difficult for her. If she votes to convict Trump to be the the Republican nominee, I think she will have turned off a bunch of the independents that she now needs to obtain that 50% to win. Maybe she could vote to convict and run as an independent, but I think she is screwed any way she goes. My feeling is that Sara Gideon is going to be elected senator next year. Maybe Collins will see this and just do the right thing on her way out. Better to go out on a good note. Plus, I think she personally despises Trump.

[TwilightZone]

60. I have no idea what Collins will do.

Based on her recent record, I think she votes to acquit, but one of these times, I suppose she could surprise us.

I think Sara Gideon has an excellent chance to win. That's a race a lot of people will be watching.

[Always Randy]

65. so glad you posted this---am from Connecticut and want to help defeat Collins

I am looking for the best way to connect and help in the 2020----have a few others that are willing to help as well---please provide some contact information to people who are working on this---

[lame54]

61. not the point at all...

we knew this going in
it was not the point in impeaching him and it is not the point in working to get actual witnesses in the senate trial

exposing his crimes is what it's all about

yes - the fix is in - but that is not a reason to roll over for them

besides - Nancy just screwed up Trump's Christmas

[TwilightZone]

62. Not my point.

My point is that some are insisting that Senate Republicans will see the evidence and suddenly cave in to the reality that Trump is a criminal scumbag. There's no evidence that will happen (regardless of what Weld and Flake claim - I trust neither of them), and the House vote is a precursor to what will almost assuredly happen in the Senate.

I actually thought that a couple of defections were more likely in the House, because some of their jobs are more likely to be in jeopardy. In the Senate, most of the GOP has even less reason (politically, from their standpoint) to vote to remove.

Of course we had to do it; Trump really gave us no choice. That doesn't have anything to do with how the Senate will address it.

[lame54]

63. The only flips i hear being talked about...

Are the four republican flips needed to get to 51 to allow witnesses in the trial
I've seen no one(not counting pointless republicans) who thinks we will get the 2/3rd's needed to convict

[SKKY]

64. Knowing there is no way he'll be convicted, I think it gives some Republicans the breathing room...

...to vote to allow witnesses and a modicum of a fair trial. And Nancy should hold this over their heads until they agree to do so.

[grantcart]

68. It only takes 4 Senators to convict, 23 for removal

He desperately wants a majority acquittal but could lose that and get a majority for conviction but not a super majority for removal.

[TwilightZone]

74. False. It takes 67 to convict.

Conviction and removal have identical requirements. Without 67, Trump will be acquitted.

Several people have made that claim, so I'm curious as to where it originated.

It is, however, clearly false.

[grantcart]

80. Not in the realm of perception

Do you really think that if there were 65 votes to convict that anyone would considered Trump acquitted?

If he receives 51 votes for conviction and 49 votes for acquittal the public will consider that he has been convicted.

And of course no where in the constitution does it say 67 for conviction, it is 2/3rds present.

[grantcart]

67. I will go out on a limb and say there is a chance that 4-6 will vote to convict on Article II

It gives Senators in Democratic states a chance to get some distance from Trump without any actual threat of removal. Of anyone like Collins or McSally are looking for a career saving compromise, that is where they will go.

It also avoids taking a stand on Ukraine and you are voting on an issue where the facts (refused Congressional subpoena) are beyond even Putin's talking points.

It also undermines the legitimacy of the legislative branch, something that they can make a conservative argument for.

Not predicting they will but if their is a break it will be on Article Ii

[kentuck]

69. If the majority of the Senate votes to convict.,,

...even if it only 51 votes, Trump cannot say that he was acquitted.

It doesn't require 67 votee to severely damage the political fortunes of Donald Trump.

[TwilightZone]

75. "Trump cannot say that he was acquitted."

I'm not sure why people keep making this claim, but it's clearly false.

It takes 67 votes to convict. That's like Impeachment 101.

[Nitram]

70. Republican Senators are a craven bunch of coward with no ethics or principles.

For that very reason, if there were signs of sea change in voter sentiment the as strong enough too put their chances of re-election in danger, they would most certainly vote to impeach. We are already seeing movement among Republican citizens, and if the House forces the Senate to allow major witness testimony by Trump aides at the trial, that could break the logjam. I'm not saying it will probably happen, but I think it is a definite possibility.

[backscatter712]

71. Pressure the vulnerable ones.

That includes Susan Collins and Cory Gardner.

[11 Bravo]

72. Yeah, but at least Susan Collins will be "deeply concerned"!

[BigDemVoter]

73. Susan Collins will express some "concern" and will then promptly vote against it.

[Skittles]

81. from those goosesteppers? NO

[mahina]

82. Nobody knows what's going to happen.

It depends on where they think their self interest lies. They are all sniffing the winds.

One thing’s sure, Mitch McConnell can lose his speakership if we win just a few states’ senate races. Now that is a man who deserves to quit to spend more time with his lawyers. We’re looking good in Arizona, Maine and maybe Colorado.

Every time another Republican quits I think it’s after being strong armed by chump inc. I bet it’s happening more now than ever.

Who wouldn’t want to tell him to shove it?

[cstanleytech]

83. Oh I have no doubt "some" will but it will all be arranged beforehand by the Republican

leadership so we will see mainly the ones vulnerable to a Democrat voting to convict along with a few token others but they will make sure its not enough to remove him.