Presidential Battlegrounds: Wisconsin

[RandySF]

Wisconsin (along with its 10 electoral votes) will once again be a critical state in the 2020 presidential election. The state is important to Trump’s re- election, although the president could win Wisconsin and lose the Electoral College with defeats in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.

There are three keys to the race:

First, can Democrats improve base turnout in Dane and Milwaukee counties? Netting more raw votes out of these two heavily urban counties will be key for the Democratic nominee.

Second, what are the margins of victory in the three suburban WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) outside Milwaukee? The Democratic nominee is highly unlikely to carry any of these counties, but margins matter. Democrats should hope that the national trend of suburban areas trending left continues here. Alternatively, it’s possible that conservative voters here who sat out the 2016 election or voted for a third-party candidate may support Trump in 2020 after seeing him deliver on policy priorities or as a reaction to a Democratic nominee who is viewed as too liberal.

Third, can Democrats make inroads with Obama-Trump voters? If they can win back just a small slice of these voters, it can win them the state when Trump carried the state by just 22,748 votes. However, it’s also possible that Democrats could do even worse with white working class voters in 2020. The general trend has been that suburban areas in the South are voting more like suburban areas in the North while rural areas in the North are voting more like rural areas in the South. Many white voters without a college degree in Wisconsin have still been voting for Democrats, but that’s not guaranteed in 2020.



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[Tech]

1. Just read an article about Gov Evers called a meeting and republicans did not show up

so no quorum. Republicans in other states have nothing on the nastiness of republicans in Wisconsin.

[Poiuyt]

2. I'm worried about the voter suppression that's been going on in WI

240,000 voters have just been purged, mostly from the Milwaukee/Madison areas.