The Senate Is In Play

[RandySF]

A year into this election cycle, the overall Senate landscape generally looks much like I thought it would. The races that seemed likely to be the most competitive are, in fact, the most competitive today. And, if the race ratings don’t quite reflect it yet, Democrats appear to have expanded the playing field enough to put Republicans’ majority at risk.”

“It appears that there will be at least five GOP-held seats in play, with a chance that Democrats could add one or two more. This puts Democrats in a position to win the majority, even if they lose Alabama and/or Michigan. This is not to suggest that Democrats will win the majority, only that their prospects are considerably better today than they were five months ago.






https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/majority-play

[mopinko]

1. this is the #1 thing on the turtle's tiny brain.

pelosi knows she has him in a vice.

[jaysunb]

2. I think GA. NC and Kentucky may well be in play. Nt

[Amishman]

7. NC absolutely, GA maybe, KY I don't believe

NC has a growing blue region in the middle of the state and has been showing many signs of turning purple.

GA is trickier, I'm thinking 5-10 years behind the NC model.

KY I don't believe, our governor win was due to a spectacularly bad R candidate and did not spill down ballot

The Senate overall is absolutely in play

I am confident we win in CO and AZ. ME and NC are very possible.

Kansas and Iowa have potential, poll data is sparse but promising

I'm expecting to lose in AL but even with that we need four of the six I mentioned.

[Brother Buzz]

18. This impeachment mess is hurting Mitch's numbers

Mitchell McConnell is kinda safe now, but I suspect that's going the change in the coming months; Kentucky will be in play.

[bearsfootball516]

10. NC is very possible. Tom Tillis is HATED there.

[littlemissmartypants]

15. Fact: More blue votes were cast in NC than red ones.

Gerrymandering has been a tough nut to crack. If we continue to GOTV we will continue to see improvement.

[bigbrother05]

3. Moscow Mitch's impeachment plan has broadened our chances

The clear rigging along with Graham and others predeclaring just help us out and the ads write themselves.

They can't even be bothered to put a veneer of impartiality on their party over country attitude.

They basically have declared that the 63M Trump voters matter more than the rest of the country.

[spanone]

4. K&R...

[Mike 03]

5. Thanks for posting.

The level of analysis here is deeper than expected.

[MFGsunny]

6. +1

[lindysalsagal]

8. frump is good for one thing: Making lots more voters wake up to the reality of their votes

and making them see that yes, their vote really matters. The "I don't care about politics' fools are paying dearly for their laziness, now.

[DeminPennswoods]

9. PA will be in play in 2022 as well

nt

[bearsfootball516]

11. Surprising that the have Doug Jones' race in Alabama rated as a toss up.

Unless he faces Roy Moore again, it's pretty unlikely he holds that seat. It took the most extraordinary set of circumstances imaginable for him to barely win. It's Alabama.

They also have Tom Tillis' seat in North Carolina as Lean Red, which I personally would have listed as a toss up. It's a state that's trending blue, and he's heavily disliked there.

[FBaggins]

12. That's Cook's standard practice

He will not place an incumbent beyond "tossup" until much closer to election day and after clear polling.

If Sessions becomes the clear nominee, I wouldn't want to put money on Jones' chances.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

14. trumpers will see Sessions as disgraced and a traitor to their god

[FBaggins]

17. "Trumpers" in general don't get a say in Alabama

Trumpers in Alabama have a longer history of voting for Sessions than Trump. He won his first Senate race by about 10... then the next two by about 20 & 30 (respectively) and then we didn't even run an opponent against him in 2014.

And now he's going on a tirade defending Trump on impeachment. Jones is going to lose support either way he goes on the issue.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

19. Trump won Alabama by 62.1% and trumpers don't get a say?

Did they all move to Mississippi?

If Moore is the candidate, the same people who voted against him will do so again.

If Sessions is the candidate, see above, plus there will be trumpers who will not vote for him because their hero is mad at Sessions.

Either way, Jones has a chance to win in Alabama.

[FBaggins]

20. I don't feel a need to edit the post.

2002 was the last time that Sessions received as little as 62.1%

I differentiated trumpers in general from those in Alabama.

I have no doubt that there are plenty of them around the country who are ticked off at his recusal. But only the ones in Alabama get a vote and they are more loyal to Sessions than to Trump

Just as importantly... Sessions has been going out of his way to kiss up to Trump - who says that he won't oppose him.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

21. I feel a need to hunt dust bunnies.

[treestar]

13. This is where we need to really concentrate

This is the body that gets in the way of Democracy to a great extent. We need to put more emphasis on getting a majority.

[RandySF]

16. And donations go further.