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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Senate Is In Play
A year into this election cycle, the overall Senate landscape generally looks much like I thought it would. The races that seemed likely to be the most competitive are, in fact, the most competitive today. And, if the race ratings dont quite reflect it yet, Democrats appear to have expanded the playing field enough to put Republicans majority at risk.
It appears that there will be at least five GOP-held seats in play, with a chance that Democrats could add one or two more. This puts Democrats in a position to win the majority, even if they lose Alabama and/or Michigan. This is not to suggest that Democrats will win the majority, only that their prospects are considerably better today than they were five months ago.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/senate-overview/majority-play
mopinko
(69,982 posts)pelosi knows she has him in a vice.
jaysunb
(11,856 posts)Amishman
(5,553 posts)NC has a growing blue region in the middle of the state and has been showing many signs of turning purple.
GA is trickier, I'm thinking 5-10 years behind the NC model.
KY I don't believe, our governor win was due to a spectacularly bad R candidate and did not spill down ballot
The Senate overall is absolutely in play
I am confident we win in CO and AZ. ME and NC are very possible.
Kansas and Iowa have potential, poll data is sparse but promising
I'm expecting to lose in AL but even with that we need four of the six I mentioned.
Brother Buzz
(36,364 posts)Mitchell McConnell is kinda safe now, but I suspect that's going the change in the coming months; Kentucky will be in play.
bearsfootball516
(6,373 posts)littlemissmartypants
(22,531 posts)Gerrymandering has been a tough nut to crack. If we continue to GOTV we will continue to see improvement.
bigbrother05
(5,995 posts)The clear rigging along with Graham and others predeclaring just help us out and the ads write themselves.
They can't even be bothered to put a veneer of impartiality on their party over country attitude.
They basically have declared that the 63M Trump voters matter more than the rest of the country.
spanone
(135,778 posts)Mike 03
(16,616 posts)The level of analysis here is deeper than expected.
lindysalsagal
(20,564 posts)and making them see that yes, their vote really matters. The "I don't care about politics' fools are paying dearly for their laziness, now.
DeminPennswoods
(15,265 posts)nt
bearsfootball516
(6,373 posts)Unless he faces Roy Moore again, it's pretty unlikely he holds that seat. It took the most extraordinary set of circumstances imaginable for him to barely win. It's Alabama.
They also have Tom Tillis' seat in North Carolina as Lean Red, which I personally would have listed as a toss up. It's a state that's trending blue, and he's heavily disliked there.
FBaggins
(26,714 posts)He will not place an incumbent beyond "tossup" until much closer to election day and after clear polling.
If Sessions becomes the clear nominee, I wouldn't want to put money on Jones' chances.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,236 posts)FBaggins
(26,714 posts)Trumpers in Alabama have a longer history of voting for Sessions than Trump. He won his first Senate race by about 10... then the next two by about 20 & 30 (respectively) and then we didn't even run an opponent against him in 2014.
And now he's going on a tirade defending Trump on impeachment. Jones is going to lose support either way he goes on the issue.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,236 posts)Did they all move to Mississippi?
If Moore is the candidate, the same people who voted against him will do so again.
If Sessions is the candidate, see above, plus there will be trumpers who will not vote for him because their hero is mad at Sessions.
Either way, Jones has a chance to win in Alabama.
FBaggins
(26,714 posts)2002 was the last time that Sessions received as little as 62.1%
I differentiated trumpers in general from those in Alabama.
I have no doubt that there are plenty of them around the country who are ticked off at his recusal. But only the ones in Alabama get a vote and they are more loyal to Sessions than to Trump
Just as importantly... Sessions has been going out of his way to kiss up to Trump - who says that he won't oppose him.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,236 posts)treestar
(82,383 posts)This is the body that gets in the way of Democracy to a great extent. We need to put more emphasis on getting a majority.