General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSeth Abramson....She wins 'if'
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1208059479826280448.htmlSUMMARY) The status of the articles of impeachment is this: Pelsoi and McConnell are fine with the status quo, and Trump is livid. If you understand negotiations, you understand this means Pelosi is winning. In the next tweet I'll tell you the one thing that could defeat Pelosi.
1/ The fact that media has waded into the negotiations because a) they want a Senate trial for ratings and b) the sort of analysts they favor are those whose inherent conservatism of logic favors tradition means that media *is one of the negotiators*.
And they're hurting Pelosi.
2/ It is hard to watch media play a role in history they won't acknowledge. But every cable news segment I've seen has either featured an analyst who wrongly implies the focus has "already moved to the Senate" (hurting Pelosi) or an anchor who assumes McConnell will get his way.
3/ The reality: the passing of articles of impeachment initiated a *negotiation process* in which Schumer and McConnell *would* have been the only players had McConnell not (a) admitted he's just a proxy for Trump (the defendant), and (b) wrongly presumed he had all the leverage.
4/ Once McConnell overplayed his hand by not being willing to give an inch to Schumer and being slave to the president's desires, he *opened up the negotiation* to a third party:
Pelosi. From that moment on, this was a joint, House-Senate negotiations process with 3 key players.
5/ The *only* legitimate analysis regarding "where the articles are at now" is to say that they're sitting in the center of a table at which four people are sitting: Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell, and Trump. And if you understand that, you understand who is winning the negotiations.
6/ Here's the situation of each party at the table:
PELOSI: She's already woninasmuch as she passed the articles. There's nothing more for her to gain except a) more time for investigation, b) more time for litigation, c) potentially a "real" Senate trial of the articles.
7/
PELOSI (cont.): Pelosi is running the table because she's the one with nothing to lose and the one who therefore wins in almost any scenario. The trial doesn't take place until 2021? She wins. A *real* trial in 2020? She wins. A long delay so more articles can come? She wins.
8/
PELOSI (cont.): A delay that pushes the issue closer to the election? She wins. A delay allowing for more investigation? She wins. A delay allowing for more litigation? She wins. America gets bored and temporarily forgets the articles? They'll eventually rememberso she wins.
9/
MCCONNELL: McConnell wants this overwhich means he's losing, because that's out of his control and likely won't happen soon. He also needs to please the presidentwhich he's not, so he's losing there too. He thinks he has a rhetorical advantage, but he doesn't: another loss.
10/
MCCONNELL: The Senate Majority Leader doesn't have a rhetorical advantage because America has already spoken via polling *and it wants a real trial*which he doesn't (and which his master, Trump, actually doesn't either, unless he's forced into it to get *any* trial at all).
11/
SCHUMER: Schumer wants a real trialand to a lesser extent, doesn't want to look diminished relative to the House generally and Speaker Pelosi specifically. But he more than anyone at the table is a bit player who's central and a bystander at once, and may want it that way.
12/
TRUMP: Trump knows he'll win *either* a real trial *or* a fake onethough the former could be a much closer vote, as witnesses could *really* hurt himbut has been laboring for so long under the delusion he and McConnell are in control he's now flummoxed to find it's untrue.
13/ So with the four chief negotiators situated in this way, Pelosi is winning because Trump is volatile and a child and compulsive and brash and over-confident and most importantly controls McConnell. So in time, McConnell will have to bend to the weakest "player" at the table.
14/ Only one thing can change the dynamic, and right now it's the biggest threat to this playing out in a way that's consistent with how a negotiator would assess the situation: the media. The media could interfere in the processwhile saying it's notto save Trump and McConnell.
15/ So, the fifth player:
MEDIA: Media wants a trial for ratings. If it can't get it when it wants it, it'll throw a tantrum and identify a villain so it can run a process story with bite. The clearest villain to identify herebecause she's making things unpredictableis Pelosi.
16/
MEDIA: Media gets its way by misreporting stories and bringing in analysts who'll give an assist to misreporting. It doesn't necessarily do so maliciously; it does it because it has an institutional biasat all levelsfor moving a story toward where the media needs it to be.
17/ So what you'll see in media are erroneous statements about how this is "supposed" to play out, erroneous statements about who has the power here, erroneous statements about what Trump "wants" (which he consistently lies about) and conservative judgments about who's "winning."
18/ Sans media pressure, Pelosi *will* win this. Trump will force McConnell to give a little to Pelosi and Schumer on witnesses, and there'll be a trial with one or two live witnesses that Pelosi and Schumer will rightly deem a "win" and that will make the conviction vote closer.
19/ *Or* Pelosi will win because Trump/McConnell give up on a trial for nowwhich leads to four scenarios that all benefit Pelosi: a real *or* fake trial closer to the election; a delay that permits more investigation and litigation; more articles from new evidence; a 2021 trial.
20/ The *worst* that happens for Pelosi is that America forgets all about the trial and the media moves on, but that's actually finebecause *if* new damaging evidence emerges, Pelosi can always jump-start this issue in a thousand ways because the ball will still be in her court.
21/ The only way Pelosi loses is if media intercedes to make her to deal away her power before Trump blows a gasket and forces McConnell to cut a deal (to get him his fake exoneration). Trump won't last long, so you'd think Pelosi's in good shapebut media won't last long either.
22/ Media is so accustomed to getting its way *and* not recognizing how *it shaped the situation* to get its wayit always *feels* noble and aloof and objective even when its institutional biases shifted a story one way or anotherthat it doesn't appreciate what a behemoth it is.
23/ Already a narrative is forming: "liberal lawyers pushed Pelosi to this"; "the focus has now shifted to the Senate"; "there will, of course, eventually be a trial and Trump will be acquitted"; "McConnell is very happy with what's happening"all false narratives that aid Trump.
24/ So my assessment as someone who negotiated cases daily for years and years is that with four players at the table, Pelosi would definitely have won and her strategy would have been airtight. With five playersmedia includedat the table, it's a contest of wills and who knows.
25/ I think that one day a much, much larger percentage of Americans will see how media interjects itself into stories in ways that shift the news rather than report itbut for now the media will put its fingerprints all over this while (per usual) saying that it has not done so.
CONCLUSION/ With things as they are nowi.e. 5 playersPelosi's odds of winning go down from 90% to 50%, meaning that there's a 50% chance Trump and McConnell get the articles in the Senate in (a) a timely fashion, and (b) with no concessions. And there's a 50% chance they don't.
IE....
Link to tweet
marble falls
(57,075 posts)Squinch
(50,946 posts)positions.
Nancy does not have to do anything in response to the media. The media was howling for her to act for two years and she sat it out, waiting till her position was optimal. She's not going to let them lead her around now.
The beginning of the thread was correct. Whatever she does, she wins. Whatever happens, it is bad for Trump and McConnell.
She's got this.
pbmus
(12,422 posts)Squinch
(50,946 posts)know you're bleeding."
I suspect McConnell is noticing something sticky, warm and red on his shoes!
But not trump. He's too dumb to look down!
csziggy
(34,136 posts)The red stuff dripping down his chest is camouflaged by his red tie.
gab13by13
(21,303 posts)It can control the narrative and with that control public opinion. We have the country on our side now, the country agrees there should be witnesses, and that should be the narrative, a trial needs witnesses. The MSM can change that narrative in a NY minute.
Squinch
(50,946 posts)Yavin4
(35,433 posts)The media loves to bully and intimidate Democrats into acting against their best interests.
pbmus
(12,422 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(48,988 posts)Hermit-The-Prog
(33,321 posts)The 5th player is the public, which the 6th player, the media, is trying to influence to achieve the 6th player's agenda. So far, the media is failing, as shown by polling. The public wants a fair trial with witnesses. That puts pressure on McConnell, who is now caught between the public and the Impeached. It also strengthens Pelosi and Schumer.
Roy Rolling
(6,911 posts)The public drives the mediaexcept in the very small world of Fox News and such. There, viewers are taught what they should know about events rather than hearing and seeing the news events themselves.
So the Fox News playbook doesnt work just as you alluded to. Reaffirming the principle from Abe Lincoln: you cant fool all of the people all of the time. And the media is just reporting on that process.
gab13by13
(21,303 posts)The MSM was complicit in helping Trump get elected president, it covered him 24/7, covered all of his hate fests.
We ignore the power of the MSM at our peril.
lunatica
(53,410 posts)She has been as elusive with them as she has with the rest of us. Absolutely no one knows what her strategy is.
At best there are some very smart people who know a great deal about the rules but even they can only surmise what she might do. No one can read her. No one knows what shes thinking. And that drives Trump bat shit crazy.
Were damn lucky that shes on our side.
kozar
(2,109 posts)found a way to bring both siderisms, into his tweets. I want to like Seth,, but I see too much of this in his tweets. "Its a great strategy if, etc etc" once you type that, you leave it open to interpretation both ways. I believe NP is doing Genius right now, when I questioned her before. Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all DU'S
Koz
Mr. Ected
(9,670 posts)The severity of the crisis demands clear and consistent messaging, not only in opposition of the GOP, but also to counter any media attempts to force its will on the process.
CaptainTruth
(6,586 posts)What a surprise. It must be any day of the last 3 years.
Gotta say I'm tired of his constant "Democrats are Fing up everything" & "I'm right about everything, even though I only have access to 10% of the information they have" attitude.
I understand others may feel differently, but he's lost me.