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Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:12 PM

Coronavirus claims 15 more lives in China; first two cases reported in Europe

Last edited Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:53 PM - Edit history (1)

BEIJING ó France confirmed two cases of coronavirus Friday, marking the first confirmed diagnoses in Europe, as China expanded its efforts to control its outbreak and announced 15 new deaths. A second case of coronavirus was also confirmed Friday in the United States.

There are more than 1,000 confirmed cases of infection, and at least 41 people have died. A total of 8,420 people are reported to be under observation.

A young, previously healthy man died in Wuhan, raising concerns about the deadliness of the virus. Until now, the vast majority of victims have been older than 60 with preexisting conditions.

More at link- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/01/24/4e678f9c-3e03-11ea-afe2-090eb37b60b1_story.html


Edit to add: France has just revised confirmed cases to 3 from 2.

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Reply Coronavirus claims 15 more lives in China; first two cases reported in Europe (Original post)
Quackers Jan 2020 OP
at140 Jan 2020 #1
Quackers Jan 2020 #3
at140 Jan 2020 #4
Quackers Jan 2020 #6
former9thward Jan 2020 #8
Quackers Jan 2020 #9
at140 Jan 2020 #17
NickB79 Jan 2020 #10
at140 Jan 2020 #11
herding cats Jan 2020 #12
Massacure Jan 2020 #13
herding cats Jan 2020 #16
USALiberal Jan 2020 #15
Mike 03 Jan 2020 #2
FirstLight Jan 2020 #7
ecstatic Jan 2020 #5
Recursion Jan 2020 #14

Response to Quackers (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:22 PM

1. 15 deaths over many days compared to 55,000 deaths every day due to

age, sickness and accidents.

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Response to at140 (Reply #1)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:46 PM

3. Uh no. 15 more deaths since yesterday's update on a 1 month old virus. nt

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Response to Quackers (Reply #3)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:49 PM

4. Gotcha...still 15 versus 55,000 die every day in China from various causes.

works out to 0.02% by the virus, 99.8% from other causes.

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Response to at140 (Reply #4)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:56 PM

6. I think you may be missing the bigger picture.

Itís not about the actual number. Itís about the infectivity and fatality rates of a new virus.

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Response to Quackers (Reply #6)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:06 PM

8. I think you are missing the big picture.

There are 41 deaths in one month. About 1,650,000 died in China during that period of various causes. The death rate from the virus is running 3-4%. Not high at all considering most are post 60 with other conditions.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #8)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:13 PM

9. Extrapolation of the data is the big picture

A virus that went from patient zero to 41 deaths, multiple international infections, 800 confirmed cases in Wuhan, and over 8,000 under observation for suspected virus infection in one month is not nothing. In regards to the fatality rate, the woman that is actually tasked with calculating it even said there isnít enough data points yet and to expect the estimate to fluctuate a lot.

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Response to Quackers (Reply #9)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 12:02 PM

17. Ordinary Flu spreads much faster than the Caronvirus has been!

From 0 cases before flu season begins, there are millions infected by end of flu season.
And many thousands of those sick with ordinary flu die.

I am not trying to minimize the new virus. All I am trying to do is to not start a panic.
Anyone remember the EBOLA virus? It was a huge panic at one time. Don't hear much anymore.

Viruses have capability of mutating. This is why the flu shot we get is never 100%.
New virus strains will come and go all the time.

At the end of day, best plan of action is to keep your own body resistance in good shape.
Which means good nutrition and enough sleep. And wash hands as frequently as possible.

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Response to at140 (Reply #1)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:18 PM

10. Measles only killed a dozen Americans in the past 20 yr

But we (rightly) point out how we need to increase our efforts to tackle measles as a public health risk.

41 people dead out of several thousand infected puts this virus several orders of magnitude more dangerous than measles.

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Response to NickB79 (Reply #10)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 09:01 PM

11. I believe in proportions

More people die by orders of magnitude from gun violence, fatal car crashes, smoking, excessive drinking, drug overdoses, opioid addiction etc which are all man made causes. We should be focused on those deaths, a lot of which are avoidable and not get bent out of shape by 1 or 2 persons in United States got infected by contact with infected people in China. We have limited resources, national spending is Trillion dollars more than national income, so focus our resources on the bigger problems.

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Response to at140 (Reply #1)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 11:49 PM

12. It's a numbers game.

Currently the the official numbers is just over 1,000 infected and 41 people have died. That's what we have to work with, but it's an evolving situation and will change.

Of course, the actual number of infections are assumed to be closer to 6,000, but as of now we don't have the data to prove that, yet. The point is, it's a new virus with few statistics and actual knowledge about it out there yet. But, the ratio of infected to mortality is the point. It has zero to do with natural causes deaths. Zero. Nada. Zip.

This is like saying, don't get your flu shot, because people die everyday. Science is our friend.

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Response to herding cats (Reply #12)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 12:40 AM

13. Indeed, a number game it is.

I posted this in another thread, a pathogen's basic reproduction number is on average the number of susceptible people a pathogen will be passed on to by each infected person over the course of a pandemic. The H1N1 flu in 2009 had a basic reproduction number of 1.4-1.6 and the 1918 Spanish Flu a basic reproduction number of 2-3. So far, estimates of this virus range between 1.4 and 4. H1N1 killed 0.03% of people infected, the Spanish Flu 2%. This virus so far has killed 3%.

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Response to Massacure (Reply #13)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 01:14 AM

16. Exactly.

There are equations to be explored here, but we don't have enough numbers yet to know the factual outcome. It's just emerging and we don't have enough facts at this moment to be definitive. Also, the more confirmed cases we have in other countries changes the possibilities.

In this, case the long incubation stage makes it more difficult. SARS was just under 7 day, so far nCoV seems to be presenting at near 14 days. Which just adds to the variables.

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Response to at140 (Reply #1)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 12:53 AM

15. Lol, ok! Nt

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Response to Quackers (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:27 PM

2. Kick.

After viewing some of the video published over the past two days (one on Al Jazeera) I wonder if we can rely on the numbers being circulated. I don't doubt the Washington Post, just the figures being provided by Chinese authorities--and I don't mean they are being dishonest, just that they may not know.

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Response to Mike 03 (Reply #2)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:04 PM

7. exactly...

Also, the people who have ha dit and suffered minimally may not have been even tested, as well as many who are really ill not being able to be seen by overwhelmed hospitals.

Of the 2 in the US and the ones recently tested in the UK, it seems that they traveled over the Christmas holiday. If I was in the CDC I would have the flight manifests of ALL inbound flights from china for the week of c-mas to New year, and contact ALL those people. But then again, they are short-staffed aren't they?

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Response to Quackers (Original post)

Fri Jan 24, 2020, 07:56 PM

5. Yikes! I have 6 flights coming up

4 of which are international. Timing couldn't be worse! One of the destinations is Dubai, which Iran has threatened to blow off the map.

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Response to Quackers (Original post)

Sat Jan 25, 2020, 12:51 AM

14. Amazing how these foreign disease panics line up with our election cycle

But, yeah, Paris had its first case today. Fun

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