Fri Sep 7, 2012, 10:08 AM

WCGreen (45,558 posts)

The job numbers are not as bad as they look...

at least politically. What most people will see is the Jobless rate dropped from 8.3% to 8.1%.

Most people don't look past that number, the percentage.

On the other hand, the real reason these jobs numbers are down is because of the childish behavior of the GOP.

But we know the case for that will be lost in the big themes of a campaign.

No election is lost or won on the job numbers from August.

If the numbers come down poorly for September, again under 100k, then that might be a game changer.

But the ADP numbers from last month showed a much better job performance as this measures the number of people actually counting as new hires. They claim 201k jobs were created in August.

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

This will more than likely show up in the September numbers.

BTW, if Romney is so private sector is always better, i find it a little disingenuous that he ignored the ADP numbers and instead seized on the Labor Department numbers.

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13 replies	Author	Time	Post
The job numbers are not as bad as they look... (Original post)	WCGreen	Sep 2012	OP
I think Romney will seize on whatever he can, whether it makes sense or not!	CaliforniaPeggy	Sep 2012	#1
Prefer the ADP stats over Labor Dept, more realistic	antiquie	Sep 2012	#2
Post removed	Post removed	Sep 2012	#3
Oh robodad... done in one.	cthulu2016	Sep 2012	#4
They look like trickle down republican policies have ultimately failed & we need to lay a new	JaneyVee	Sep 2012	#5
Hahahahahaha...	Blue Belle	Sep 2012	#6
They're not as bad, they are actually worse.	Jack Bloem	Sep 2012	#7
They usually revise these numbers as more data comes in....	WCGreen	Sep 2012	#9
If we're going to go the way of Greece it will be republicans to march us there	JaneyVee	Sep 2012	#10
Gosh. if the republicans actually stop obstructing everything, it would be a non-issue.	progressivebydesign	Sep 2012	#13
two more job reports until the election.	Liberal_in_LA	Sep 2012	#8
Depends on which media is spinning them. This morning, they were good..	progressivebydesign	Sep 2012	#11
Isn't there a Dem out there who could hire 100,000 for a month to get our numbers up?	Hamlette	Sep 2012	#12

Response to WCGreen (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 10:13 AM

CaliforniaPeggy (144,590 posts)

1. I think Romney will seize on whatever he can, whether it makes sense or not!

In a hopefully vain attempt to make everything look like Obama's fault. No fact checkers for him...

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Response to WCGreen (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 11:08 AM

antiquie (4,299 posts)

2. Prefer the ADP stats over Labor Dept, more realistic

Thanks. I just finished AlterNet's take and appreciate a little good news.

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Response to WCGreen (Original post)

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Response to Post removed (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:10 PM

cthulu2016 (10,960 posts)

4. Oh robodad... done in one.

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Response to Post removed (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:12 PM

JaneyVee (19,877 posts)

5. They look like trickle down republican policies have ultimately failed & we need to lay a new

FOUNDATION.

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Response to Post removed (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:15 PM

Blue Belle (5,912 posts)

6. Hahahahahaha...

Wait... are you serious? Do you even know how unemployment works?

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Response to WCGreen (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:18 PM

Jack Bloem (1 post)

7. They're not as bad, they are actually worse.

Great speech last night as usual. The 8.1% represents the U3 series of unemployment numbers. The U6 series that takes into account underemployed and people who have just stopped looking for work is now around 14%.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

This is the worst level of labor participation since 1981.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/jobs-data-disconnect-consumer-spending-markets-disconnect-reality-142739044.html

I looked on Wikipedia today for unemployment. It is a fascinating read for those who love economics. Great quotes in their by Marx. Perhaps, unemployment spikes are simply the nature of the beast in a capitalistic society. That said, I'm worried.

I'm still waiting for the politician who will fall on their sword for this country and tells us the truth that we have to both CUT spending and RAISE taxes for us all, lest we are going to go the way of Greece soon enough...

http://www.tradeonlytoday.com/home/521586-cbo-report-warns-of-possible-recession-in-2013

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Response to Jack Bloem (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:24 PM

WCGreen (45,558 posts)

9. They usually revise these numbers as more data comes in....

The real key is that there is little to no growth in government employment.

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Response to Jack Bloem (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:26 PM

JaneyVee (19,877 posts)

10. If we're going to go the way of Greece it will be republicans to march us there

Just like Greece, the GOP has a problem with making the wealthy or pretty much anyone else pay taxes.

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Response to Jack Bloem (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:28 PM

progressivebydesign (19,458 posts)

13. Gosh. if the republicans actually stop obstructing everything, it would be a non-issue.

The job numbers are way better than ANY month during Bush's job loss months... but thanks for your cheery first post.

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Response to WCGreen (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:19 PM

Liberal_in_LA (44,397 posts)

8. two more job reports until the election.

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Response to WCGreen (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:26 PM

progressivebydesign (19,458 posts)

11. Depends on which media is spinning them. This morning, they were good..

now they're "dismal"

Considering that fucking GWB had losses each month of Private sector jobs in the hundreds of thousands, I can't believe that people are freaking out. We had a near Depression, with a housing and credit collapse, in one year. It's slow going, but it's going.

Plus people forget that hurricane Isaac was in August, and that affects job numbers.

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Response to WCGreen (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:27 PM

Hamlette (15,066 posts)

12. Isn't there a Dem out there who could hire 100,000 for a month to get our numbers up?

of course I don't think anyone looks at these numbers but us so it would be a waste of time but the numbers make me nervous.

Didn't we see a dip in new unemployment claims recently?

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