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Mon Feb 17, 2020, 12:35 AM

Corona Virus could infect 2/3 of the Globe!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/coronavirus-could-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says

Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows
By John Lauerman
February 13, 2020, 10:28 AM EST
Updated on February 13, 2020, 12:23 PM EST
Disease scientist bases estimate on transmissibility of virus
WHO has said China quarantines provide a ‘window’ to prepare

As the number of coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top infectious-disease scientist warns that things could get far worse: Two-thirds of the world’s population could catch it.


So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization who tracked studies of the virus’s transmissibility in China. His estimate implies that there could eventually be billions more infections than the current official tally of about 60,000.

If the virus spreads to anywhere near that extent, it will show the limitations of China’s strict containment measures, including quarantining areas inhabited by tens of millions of people. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has credited those steps with giving the rest of China and the world a “window” in which to prepare.

Quarantines may slow the spread, but the virus had the opportunity to roam in China and beyond before they went into effect, Longini said. The country boosted its count of those infected by almost 15,000 on Thursday after widening the diagnosis methods.

Longini’s modeling is based on data showing that each infected person normally transmits the disease to two to three other people. A lack of rapid tests and the relative mildness of the infection in some people also makes it difficult to track its spread, he said.

Reducing Transmission
Even if there were a way to reduce transmission by half, that would still imply that roughly one-third of the world would become infected, Longini said.

14 replies, 1270 views

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply Corona Virus could infect 2/3 of the Globe! (Original post)
at140 Feb 2020 OP
Blues Heron Feb 2020 #1
at140 Feb 2020 #2
Blues Heron Feb 2020 #3
denem Feb 2020 #8
Blues Heron Feb 2020 #9
Hekate Feb 2020 #4
at140 Feb 2020 #5
Kid Berwyn Feb 2020 #6
Collimator Feb 2020 #7
global1 Feb 2020 #10
PoindexterOglethorpe Feb 2020 #11
at140 Feb 2020 #12
PoindexterOglethorpe Feb 2020 #13
at140 Feb 2020 #14

Response to at140 (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 12:41 AM

1. "the virus had the opportunity to roam in China " lol

on it's tiny little virus feet, snappin selfies all the way

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Response to Blues Heron (Reply #1)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 12:45 AM

2. The few people I know in China are petrified!

They are holed up in their house, afraid to step out.

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Response to at140 (Reply #2)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 12:48 AM

3. I know. it was just funny they said roam instead of spread

like the virus is out hitchin on the side of the road, a tiny bindle slung over it's little viral shoulder

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Response to Blues Heron (Reply #3)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 01:05 AM

8. Roam ... coronavirus the musical



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Response to denem (Reply #8)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 01:11 AM

9. Nice find! That moon does look vaguely viral

love me some B-52s, thanks for that.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 12:50 AM

4. Don't panic.

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Response to Hekate (Reply #4)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 12:54 AM

5. Heck no, I booked a cruise next week just to prove

I ain't afraid!! I will be sailing on the Carnival Ecstacy ship, and in case you don't see any posts in March from me, I will be cooling my heels in a quarantine somewhere.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 01:00 AM

6. This is important news.

Not that Chairman Xi wasn’t going to bring it up someday.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 01:02 AM

7. The whole 1/3 or 2/3 thing sounds very biblical.

My close reading of the Book of Revelation is years behind me, but I recall reading percentages of that sort. No doubt some gleeful End Timers will latch onto that statistic like a meth addict jonesing for a fix.

A little over a hundred years ago, the Spanish Flu was said to have killed more people than the "Great War" which had proceeded it. We are a year behind schedule, but I am more of a cyclical system of similar events sort than a "Finally, the End is Here" sort.

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 01:20 AM

10. Not To Worry.....

Trump says it will be gone by April when it warms up. (sarcasm)

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Response to at140 (Original post)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 01:57 AM

11. O!M!G!

I gather some significant percentage of the population of China is now infected, most of them are dying, and this is the end of civilization as we know it.

Oh, wait. The officially tally of those infected is around 72,000. Remind me again what China's population is? Even if there are really ten times as many infected -- which is a stretch, no matter how your fast your conspiracy hamster is running on the wheel -- not very many people are dying. Really. Not very many.

Let's see, the current population of China is 1.386 billion people as of 2017. 72,000 is on the order of one half of one percent of the population. Scary. Truly scary. And the fact that the virus is so mild in most people that they don't have symptoms, or aren't sick enough to seek medical attention is frightening. Wow. A disease that affects a tiny percentage of the population and most people don't get very sick.

What am I missing here?

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #11)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 12:07 PM

12. There are no quick testing procedures invented yet for this virus

and the symptoms are similar to the standard flu except this one is more contagious by orders of magnitude.

Keep in mind Dept of Health had not even heard of this virus until couple of months ago.

SO no one really knows how many are really infected in China.

I have a few friends in China with whom I exchange emails. They are afraid to go out of the house and staying locked in!

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Response to at140 (Reply #12)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 02:02 PM

13. Is this really that more contagious than regular flu?

How many millions of Americans have already gotten flu this year?

Another unanswered question, heck unasked question so far as I can tell, is how many Chinese have gotten flu this year?

I heard something yesterday about sterilizing paper currency on the theory that the virus can cling to the money long enough to infect people, which has got to be total nonsense. This CDC page on how long viruses and bacteria can survive outside the human body is helpful. https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/infections/how-long-do-bacteria-and-viruses-live-outside-the-body/

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Response to PoindexterOglethorpe (Reply #13)

Mon Feb 17, 2020, 02:23 PM

14. That is what I am reading, that this virus spreads easier than common flu.

And that it lingers on surfaces longer than the flu virus.
And corona does a number on your lungs which is mostly unreversible.
Most of the 20 million Americans who come down with fly each season experience mild symptoms,
and fatality rate is not high unless you are very young or very old.

Did you see how many people got infected on one cruise ship?
40 American citizens are stranded in quarantine! That is a lot on a short cruise of a few days.

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