New 72 thousand plus case study: COVID-19 mortality rate for 70-79yo's 8%, 80 and over 14.8%

[Celerity]

Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China

Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Zunyou Wu, MD, PhD1; Jennifer M. McGoogan, PhD


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420

The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention recently published the largest case series to date of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China (72 314 cases, updated through February 11, 2020).1 This Viewpoint summarizes key findings from this report and discusses emerging understanding of and lessons from the COVID-19 epidemic.

Epidemiologic Characteristics of the COVID-19 Outbreak
Among a total of 72 314 case records (Box), 44 672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive viral nucleic acid test result on throat swab samples), 16 186 as suspected cases (22%; diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only, no test was performed because testing capacity is insufficient to meet current needs), 10 567 as clinically diagnosed cases (15%; this designation is being used in Hubei Province only; in these cases, no test was performed but diagnosis was made based on symptoms, exposures, and presence of lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (1%; diagnosis by positive viral nucleic acid test result but lacking typical symptoms including fever, dry cough, and fatigue).1

Key Findings From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Report

72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020)

Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%)

Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%)

Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%)

Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)

Age distribution (N?=?44 672)

?80 years: 3% (1408 cases)

30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)

20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)

10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)

<10 years: 1% (416 cases)

Spectrum of disease (N?=?44 415)

Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)

Severe: 14% (6168 cases)

Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

Case-fatality rate

2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)

14.8% in patients aged ?80 years (208 of 1408)

8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)

49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

Health care personnel infected

3.8% (1716 of 44 672)

63% in Wuhan (1080 of 1716)

14.8% cases classified as severe or critical (247 of 1668)



snip

[Celerity]

1. Trump calling it 'just a cold' reminds me of his its only headaches comment about the soldiers with

traumatic brain injuries from the Iran attack.

[former9thward]

2. Confirmed cases means hospitalization.

There is about a 10% death rate for the common flu in the U.S. for people 65 and over who are hospitalized. Sounds about the same to me.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

[Mariana]

4. No, confirmed cases are those who have tested positive.

From the OP:

Among a total of 72 314 case records (Box), 44 672 were classified as confirmed cases of COVID-19 (62%; diagnosis based on positive viral nucleic acid test result on throat swab samples), 16 186 as suspected cases (22%; diagnosis based on symptoms and exposures only, no test was performed because testing capacity is insufficient to meet current needs), 10 567 as clinically diagnosed cases (15%; this designation is being used in Hubei Province only; in these cases, no test was performed but diagnosis was made based on symptoms, exposures, and presence of lung imaging features consistent with coronavirus pneumonia), and 889 as asymptomatic cases (1%; diagnosis by positive viral nucleic acid test result but lacking typical symptoms including fever, dry cough, and fatigue).1

[former9thward]

5. Anyone who is confirmed is hospitalized.

[Mariana]

6. Most people who get the flu aren't hospitalized.

It's not a reasonable comparison.

[former9thward]

8. I am comparing the hospitalization rate of both.

You might want to check the CDC link I provided. Apparently you want to ignore the facts.

[procon]

3. Well, that's damned depressing.

Now, on top of all my medical problems that I already know can kill me in a heartbeat (or the lack thereof), I have to worry about disease vectors. Maybe I should think about avoiding people, stay home, don't go to public venues to minimize the risk of exposure... I don't know, the life of a hermit isn't very appealing. What to do, just carry on as usual, pull the lever and take my chances?

[Mariana]

7. Only you can decide.

If it really does get loose and spreads everywhere, the only way to avoid it for sure would be to stay away from other people completely until it burns itself out.