Snapshot last four recessions

[ProSense]

Last edited Sat Sep 8, 2012, 04:57 PM - Edit history (1)

Consecutive job losses August 1981 to December 1982: 17 months, -2.8 million jobs.


Job losses/weak gains April 1990 to September 1992: 30 months, -723,000 jobs


Job losses/weak gains June 2000 to December 2003: 43 months -1.6 million jobs.


Consecutive job losses February 2008 to February 2010: 25 months, -8.8 million jobs

Years can be pluged in here: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Now, why the hell would anyone compare climbing out of this current recession to climbing out of the other three? Also note, it took Bush 43 months to begin to climb out of the recession of the early 2000s before he crashed the economy in the last two years of his second term.


Edited to add correct 1990s chart.

[leveymg]

1. The Bastards really did fold up their tents and make off with their goodies in 11/08, didn't they?

We paid a high price to lure some of them back. I guess the question is, at what long-term cost, and could we do it again, if we had to?

Also, compare the job recovery numbers. The highest recently has been a 251K gain in April this year. Look at the high numbers in previous recoveries, as much as 1,114K (Sep '83). That's the difference this time.

[ProSense]

11. That was

"Also, compare the job recovery numbers. The highest recently has been a 251K gain in April this year. Look at the high numbers in previous recoveries, as much as 1,114K (Sep '83). That's the difference this time."

...an anomaly, which likely had to do with a specific incident.

Romney...Economy Should Be Adding (500K) Jobs A Month, Which It Has Done Only Four Times In 50 Years
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002643728

[leveymg]

12. No, not an anomoly. The general pattern was to gain more jobs than lost by this point in the

recovery. And, the jobs loss this time was by far the greatest and the gains are proportionally more anemic.

[ProSense]

13. Creating 1.1 million in a month is an anamoly.

The previous month shows 308K jobs lost and the subsequent month shows 271K jobs gained.

Through August 1983, Reagan's job record was -918,000 jobs.

"The general pattern was to gain more jobs than lost by this point in the recovery. And, the jobs loss this time was by far the greatest."

That's the point of the OP. In the six months leading up the Reagan Presidency, the economy created 1.1 million jobs. Extending out a year that number drops to 231K jobs created.

In the six months leading up to the Obama Presidency, the economy lost 3.5 million jobs. That number climbs to 4.5 million extending out a year.

As of August 1984, Reagan had created about 4 million jobs. This President created more than 4 million jobs through August 2012, but the hole was significantly deeper.

[RevStPatrick]

2. You've got a little problem there...

The second chart is a repeat of the first chart.
Just sayin'...

[leveymg]

3. Here are the numbers for the '90-92 period

I believe the bigger problem here is still the relatively weak recent recovery numbers compared to the losses during the recession.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1990 338 249 214 40 150 17 -40 -208 -85 -159 -146 -59
1991 -122 -302 -161 -212 -127 88 -48 17 32 12 -58 23
1992 50 -66 52 157 126 60 70 141 35 178 139 212

[ProSense]

7. Sorry about that.

Got interrupted. Fixed.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. First 43.5 months of six Presidents S&P 500 and average Dem/Rep:

[BumRushDaShow]

5. It boggles the mind, don't it?

Those facts that they refuse to see.

[ProSense]

8. Good chart. n/t

[daleo]

6. I have yet to live through an easy recession

Recovery always seems to take a long time, a least to me.

[ProSense]

9. Yeah, but somehow

this one was supposed to be a piece of cake.

[daleo]

10. I always assumed it would be a slog

On par with the early 80's or the early 90's. These things take time. The most important things governments can do are to help people to cope, not make things worse by dogmatic responses and help people to retrain to the extent that they can. Obama has done as well as could reasonably be expected on all those fronts. Clinton did a good job of that in the 90's as well.