Your right wing friends who watch Fox all the time: Who did they think would win in 2008?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

I'm curious about this.

Were they SURE, or very confident, that McCain/Palin were going to win and completely shocked by the result? Or were they pessimistic about their candidates' chances but hoping for a long shot? And therefore not surprised by the result?

Despite spinning the candidates and issues, did Fox present the polling data in such a way to allow their viewers to draw the conclusion that their favored candidate was probably not going to win?

I felt that the aggregate polling data in 2008 showed pretty clearly that Obama/Biden was likely going to win even though I did sweat it right up until election night.

If this year's data was showing Obama consistently down, even if only by a couple points nationally and slightly behind in most key swing states like OH/FL/VA, especially as an incumbent, then I'd be expecting a loss though hoping for a win from a "long shot" position. That's a change from 2004 where I think I felt more optimistic about the outcome than I think the polling data warranted (all discussion about Ohio nonwithstanding).

I'm interested because now I'm seeing the freepiest folks around me clinging to articles about Carter leading Reagan right up until really late in the race, or stuff like 1992 Tory victory over Labor confounding polling and not just being cautiously optimistic but ridiculously confident of not only a Romney win but some kind of Reagan/Mondale blowout. And ignoring that while such outcomes are theoretically possible, aggregate polling has been pretty accurate in the most recent elections.

[unblock]

1. polls sound an awful lot like "facts", so why bother asking? god is on their side, you know.

[CJCRANE]

2. They're just putting on a brave face

plus they know it's annoying when they act like that.

[HopeHoops]

3. McCain and whats-her-face.

[dems_rightnow]

4. Everyone I know......

.... of all political stripes, considered Obama a "done deal" in 2008. No exceptions. I supposed the righties continued to hope for a long shot, but there was no surprise anywhere.

[smackd]

5. my parents were in denial, up to the end.

by the end of the summer 2008, i started saying it was going to be a blowout (relatively speaking), as it was.

this time around, it feels like it's going to be even bigger. and i'm generally a pessimist by nature. for what it's worth

[Proud Liberal Dem]

7. I believe Obama will win but it won't be a blowout IMHO

due to voter suppression and other "irregularities". It will probably wind up looking like a "close" win and they will probably spin the results to acknowledge that he won but suggest that President Obama definitely does not have a "mandate", particularly if the Republicans take Congress. OTOH they willingly accepted and promoted Bush's 2004 "mandate" and Bush and the Republicans behaved as though they had won a "mandate" in 2000 as well (if any election demanded bipartisanship, it should have been 2000 IMHO).

Edit: On second thought, if it is close, they will probably argue voter fraud and may even litigate if they think it might help them- though, of course, they won't find spit but that won't stop them and their followers from being convinced that the Democrats cheated them out of their birthright (again).

[Populist_Prole]

6. Interesting thread. I wonder too, and I'll be glad to compare notes

I'll sum it up and get it out of the way first and say they were probably resigned to McCain losing, but the ones I knew who were deepest in the Fox/Rush bubble thought they would win. Of course they also thought ( and still think ) they represent about 75 percent of the population's thinking, but that's another story for another time.

Most of my right wing friends in 2008 weren't really right wing before that. Not especially well read. 60 minutes of talking heads a day low information types. They were all kind of center right. They disliked republicans for their anti-labor stance, disliked dems due to them being tepid toward labor ( the "third way" dominating, we didn't know it at the time though ) and too far to the left socially, most notably anti-gun and too "politically correct". As soon as Obama was the nominee, they moved sharply to the right. We didn't discuss politics and they just sort of assumed I was one of them. One by one they all started pitching for McCain/Palin. Most thought Palin was the best thing they ever saw, though a few agreed with me she was an imbecile. They were very much aware of the youthful energy and buzz the Obama campaign and supporters had.

They became very irritated when I was adamantly opposed to them and torpedoed their talking points one by one till even they knew it was BS. It pissed them off for 2 reasons: First off they knew they basically needed every "angry white guy" vote they could get in order to counter the momentous tide of the Obama campaign, and that they were NOT going to get it in me. Second, they realized that I was not one of them anymore, politically speaking. Either I moved left or they moved right, I really don't know. I can tell you that there was a desperation in their tones like "If we don't stop him now we NEVER will".

Yeah, they knew they would get their asses kicked in 2008. They know they will in 2012 I'm sure but they're determined to go down swinging, such is their bigotry and bitterness. I'm not their enemies or anything, but we get together a whole lot less I can tell you.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

8. I remember in 2008

the media made lots of efforts to call an Obama victory into question- in spite of the polling, endorsements, and general attitude towards McCain/Palin. I remember NPR even suggesting that a whole bunch of white people whom told pollsters that they would be voting for Obama really didn't support him and were only telling the pollsters what they felt was the "right" answer to prove that they were not racist- and that they were really waiting to pull the lever for McCain/Palin in the voting booth (which, of course, turned out to be untrue)

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

15. LOL Bradley Effect. I'm seeing that dusty old chestnut too.

Never made any sense to me that people would lie when they are anonymously polled, why would they care as an anonymous person about appearing politically correct?

Since "Bradley" didn't materialize in 2008, and was used by HRC and the GOP to cling to false hope, not sure why they'd go back to it this year.

If it was only seen during Tom Bradley's race, then it should be considered an anomaly.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

16. Thanks for reminding me about the actual name

I knew that it was called something but I just couldn't remember it. Yeah, it never made much sense to me either. It's not like anybody is going to know who they are or that they're answering some polls.

[Douglas Carpenter]

9. no question that most right-wing Republicans sat in stunned disbelief on election night 2008

There is a price to be payed for only following media that tells people only what they want to hear. It is certainly the consensus of expert opinion this year that Obama is holding an advantage at this point. But that is no guarantee that he will be holding the advantage on November 6. All things be equal Obama will probably win. But this is far, far from certain. It would be a terrible mistake for Democrats to wrap themselves in the insular bubble the way most Republicans do.

[smackd]

11. yes, that is it...

that's why my parents were stunned/in denial.

if you get all your information in the bubble, you're actually surprised when that bubble pops!

[bhikkhu]

13. I think there was some unspoken belief in elections being "fixed"

...after the 2000 and 2004 messes. Outwardly they would scoff that there was any manipulation of results behind the scenes, but I think there was some secret confidence that they would see something similar in 2008. Given the various problems of the 2010 election, there may be a little of the same again.

[Populist_Prole]

17. I heard the first "birther" argument before there was birther movement, the day after Obama's win

This outspoken conservative/libertarian at work. He's also known to be loud and quarrelsome about everything, political or non-political. A real jerk.

The day after the election he's saying stuff like, "You just watch, by the end of the week he'll be disqualified for not being a US citizen........" Blah blah blah. He spoke with conviction yet with desperation as though this was the "great white hope" somehow. First time I ever heard that angle, and long before "birther" was in the political lexicon. I remember thinking, "Damn, these people are desperate!". I had no idea then the anti-Obama sentiment would get so exceedingly ugly as we see now.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

19. I thought there was birtherism even during the primaries?

I think the GOP had a choice to play it "straight" on race issues, but with the Palin pick and everything that followed, they went full on ugly redneck. I don't think it really had to be that way either, it was a choice.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

18. Oh even though I think Obama winning is the likely outcome, it's not assumed by me at all.

[reflection]

10. My boss apparently still thinks McCain/Palin will pull it out.

Not only did he keep the sticker on his giant truck, he added another one last year. I have no idea where he got one in 2011.

[GreenPartyVoter]

12. You know, I really can't remember! All I know is that after 2004, I will take nothing for granted.

[k2qb3]

14. Most at least said they thought they would win.

I'm not sure if it's self-delusion, putting on a brave face and hoping for a miracle, or believing the right wing media circus, but a lot of people were putting forward theories on why Obama wouldn't win, each crazier and more conspiratorial than the last.

The exact same thing is happening right now, the polls are rigged, Rasmussen is a closet commie, Obama couldn't fill the stadium, it's going to be a rerun of 1980.

The thing is none of these people actually like Romney much, they don't even like each other very much. I'm convinced the Republican party fractured beyond repair during the Bush 43 years, the tea party was an expression of anger and frustration, and not all of it was with the black guy in the oval office. A lot of people are going to vote for Romney because voting for Republicans is what they do, can't change sides when you've spent decades hating the alternative, but I'm seeing a lot of republicans who've just had enough too. The GOP has done a really phenomenal job of alienating people at the margins. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the biggest third party vote since Perot this cycle, especially since the libertarian is a strong candidate, and a much bigger than expected win for the president.

[liberalhistorian]

20. A lot of the ones that I knew either didn't like

or weren't thrilled with McCain, and/or they didn't like Palin at all and were disgusted with both him and his choice (several thought that, if he'd wanted a women, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe would have been better and more palatable, substantial choices). There were some who liked him and planned on voting for him regardless of how they felt about Palin and there were some who used to like him but didn't like who he'd become during the campaign.

Almost all of them, however, even those who watched Fox, didn't think he had much of a chance. Some blamed Bush and republican fatigue, others blamed Palin and others put the blame on the fact that they didn't think McCain ran his campaign well (some said he acted at times like he didn't even really want to win).

There were only a couple of Fox-watchers who thought McCain had it in the bag and who were shocked on election night. That surprised me, but I never really said anything.