BTRTN: Why the Coronavirus Numbers Scare Me

[tgards79]

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/03/btrtn-why-coronavirus-numbers-scare-me.html

Let’s look at the trend in Italy. Italy, as you know from the headlines, is having a terrible time with the coronavirus. But looking at this chart, you can see that our trend is right with Italy -- just about eleven days behind them. Their growth rate is in the 20%+ range, and they are up to more than 15,000 cases.

Rates of change persist until something happens to slow them down. And the Italian government basically shut down the entire country three days ago. All shops in the entire country have been shut down by the Italian government, with the exception of supermarkets, pharmacies and a few others. They had already banned travel within the country (except for work or health reasons), and shut down all the schools. (Spain and France just announced, minutes ago, that they are taking similar steps.)

We have not taken any actions remotely resembling that – in fact we have taken little federal action at all within our borders; almost all of our shutdowns have been done voluntarily on a local basis by governors, mayors, or businesses (such as the NBA)....

[Quixote1818]

1. It depends on certain regions not the entire country

The entire US having 2,500 known cases vs Italy is misleading. We have 330 million people in a very large area and Italy has 60 million in an area the size of California. Now if the North East US or a major US City which is very dense with population starts to mimic Italy then that regions would be in big trouble. I suspect there will be some hot spots in the US where it gets totally out of control like in Italy.

[tgards79]

2. Our size means one thing

Our numbers will ultimately be larger than Italy's. Of course NY is mimic'ing Italy. And so is Washington. And if you look at every single state, small numbers are growing like wildfire. Take Louisiana the last six days: cumulative 1-3-13-19-36-77. It will keep going.

[tgards79]

3. By the way, did you actually read the article?

Did you look at the chart? Your statement is misleading and this is not a time for false comfort.