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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate gives us a 80.7% of winning
it's been going up all day....seems like it was updated within the last hour or so. Maybe he doesn't sleep.
Response to Hamlette (Original post)
Post removed
Kurska
(5,739 posts)Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)That's first time I've seen an automated spam post and it was in Spanish Wild!
Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)Brother Buzz
(36,409 posts)I'm just saying.
Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)The "Now Cast" is a different set of numbers, but it 's all good. There's a button to the right of the Nov. 6th number button you can click to see the now cast numbers.
Brother Buzz
(36,409 posts)It's all good.
Ellipsis
(9,124 posts)and low and behold... it's all ready on DU.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,228 posts)Hamlette
(15,411 posts)flor-de-jasmim
(2,125 posts)AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts)A lot of people are scared, rightly so, of what a Romney Presidency could do to this country. If anyone needs to worry about complacency, it's the Republicans; they're the ones losing voters this year.....
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...is the difference between the main forecast (which works in Nate's predicted estimate of skewing of the numbers caused by convention bounces) and the "Now-cast" (which doesn't). Up until today, while the main forecast had Obama's chances in the upper '70s, his "Now-cast" odds were in the upper '60s to very low '70s. In other words, the odds on the main page were based on the assumption that more of a bounce ought to be forthcoming -- if it turned out it was smaller or shorter-lasting than expected, Obama's odds would drop quite dramatically. This is why I have been telling people to pay attention to the "Now-cast" instead of the main forecast for the past few days.
Now, however, the numbers have flipped; the main forecast has 80.7%, but the "Now-cast" is up to 83%. This means that, at this point, the model assumes that Obama's bounce has reached its peak, and is due to recede -- and, if it does, his odds of victory are still greater than 4:1. On the other hand, if the bounce doesn't drop as expected (we're not even talking of it increasing, just not dropping according to the predicted rate), Obama's odds are even more favorable.
Either way, barring some massive "game-changer" (and it would have to be quite massive, like a slide into another deep recession) in the coming weeks, it's not looking good for Rmoney.
Hamlette
(15,411 posts)I hadn't even clicked on the "now-cast" section so I've not been following it. I will now.