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Sun Mar 22, 2020, 12:11 AM

Keeping up with the numbers

Data comes from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as of 4:00 pm March 18 and 11:30 pm March 21

Global data:

March 18: Cases are increasing by over 17,000 per day. Deaths are increasing by almost 1,000 per day.
March 23: Cases are increasing by over 32,000 per day. Deaths are increasing by almost 1,700 per day.

March 18:The "All Case" CFR (Total Cases/Deaths) is 4.1%. The "Closed Case" CFR ((Recoveries+Deaths)/Deaths) is 9.6%
March 23:The "All Case" CFR (Total Cases/Deaths) is 4.25%. The "Closed Case" CFR ((Recoveries+Deaths)/Deaths) is 11.9%

What I call the "All Case" CFR is what Wikipedia calls the preliminary CFR. The Closed Case CFR approximates what Wikipedia calls the "final CFR". The article contains this caution:
The preliminary CFR, for example, during the course of an outbreak with a high daily increase and long resolution time would be substantially lower than the final CFR.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

The global infection curve is showing no signs of decelerating into a sigmoid inflection. Simple, high-correlation quadratic projections show 9 million infections and 600,000 deaths world-wide in two months. These are increases of 30+ times today's numbers.

My concern, frankly, is that these projected numbers will prove to be too low.

Different nations will show different CFR values depending on their demographics, population density, the timing and urgency of the testing and distancing measures they undertake, and the quality of their health care system. National values currently vary from a "Closed Case" CFR of 3.5% in South Korea to about 40% for Italy and Spain. The USA isn't doing well yet, with a Closed Case CFR of 66%

The numbers are bad, getting worse fast, and there is no end in sight. If you're not an essential worker, stay home and wash your hands. If you are an essential worker, bless you and may you stay safe.

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Reply Keeping up with the numbers (Original post)
The_jackalope Mar 2020 OP
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #1
PoindexterOglethorpe Mar 2020 #2
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #3
Igel Mar 2020 #4

Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 12:41 AM

1. Sorry to go all numeric, but

Running the data is how I try to disconnect from the fear in the midst of an accelerating crisis. I practiced this technique on peak oil, climate change and civilization collapse. It feels a whole lot less abstract tonight though.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 01:54 AM

2. I'm a numbers person myself, so thank you for posting.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 02:23 AM

3. If/when this pandemic dies out

Based on the behaviour of the last month's numbers (an admittedly small sample compared to what's coming) it looks to me like the final fatality rate of the COVID-19 pandemic when all is said and we're all done, will be on the order of 8-9%. That's multiples higher than 1918. I pray to all the gods we wish existed that I'm wrong, but regardless, it's clear that this is a Category 5 pandemic.

A Category 5 Pandemic is a real thing? Yup:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_severity_index

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Sun Mar 22, 2020, 09:26 AM

4. You won't get that inflection until most countries are past their maximum.

Italy accounts for almost half the deaths.

US is down for the last couple of days, but early figures this morning are the same as yesterday's today, so it may be that there were delays in reporting and the curve hasn't changed much. Or maybe the curve's flattening, which is what to look for. But as it spreads, it will get better first in some countries, and later in others, so the overall numbers will mask the improvement.

Averages do that. SAT scores sank for years and the media had a field day with bashing the educational system. But the students who traditionally would have taken the SAT had their scores increasing, when you disaggregated the data. And lower achieving students still had their overall scores increasing slightly over that time. But the mix of students changed year over year, so more lower achieving students were added to the mix. Everybody was doing better but the average was plummeting. Sometimes aggregating your data leads to the wrong conclusion.

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