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nc4bo

(17,651 posts)
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 07:31 PM Sep 2012

Tweety just said PPP polls have race tied in North Carolina...

From 48-48 to 49-48 +1 Obama, post DNC convention.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/north-carolina-remains-a-toss-up.html#more


Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's post-Democratic convention North Carolina poll finds virtually no change from last week. Barack Obama leads 49-48, a result hardly different from the 48/48 tie we found last week.

That's not to say the convention wasn't a success for Democrats. 57% of voters think hosting it was a good thing for North Carolina to only 15% who believed it was a bad thing with 26% considering it neutral. Democrats consider it to have been a positive by an 84/4 margin and independents do 53/11. Republicans though believe it was a bad thing by a 34/23 margin. By a 47/39 margin North Carolinians say the Democrats had a better convention than the Republicans.

Why no bounce? North Carolina voters have simply proven to be pretty intractable. We have polled an Obama/Romney match up in the state 25 times since November of 2010. Obama and Romney have been within 3 points of each other 24 out of those 25 times. Sometimes Obama's up by a little and sometimes Romney's up by a little but it's never outside the margin of error. The state of play in North Carolina this year is that each candidate has about 46% of the vote locked up, has had it locked up forever, and now they're just fighting over a very small persuadable swath of the electorate and seeing who has the superior GOTV operation. Barring a big shift in the national picture over the final eight weeks it's unlikely either candidate will win by more than 2-3 points, and a less than 1% difference in the final outcome like 2008 seems very plausible.


Perhaps it's an up trend on the way and only time will tell with subsequent polling.

Horse race means hardcore GOTV! We're in play!
7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Tweety just said PPP polls have race tied in North Carolina... (Original Post) nc4bo Sep 2012 OP
One thing for sure sweettater Sep 2012 #1
NC is always 50-50 marions ghost Sep 2012 #2
I think we KNOW who has the better GOTV! wildeyed Sep 2012 #3
Who are the Undecideds in NC? Stinky The Clown Sep 2012 #4
I have a few on FB who claim to be undecided. wildeyed Sep 2012 #5
I'd like to see us get their vote Stinky The Clown Sep 2012 #6
Economically, that would be the smart thing for them to do. wildeyed Sep 2012 #7

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
2. NC is always 50-50
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 07:43 PM
Sep 2012

And in NC the split is heavily Urban VS Rural. In that sense it reflects the nation.

Watch out for dirty tricks... (and we know which side has a propensity for that)...

wildeyed

(11,240 posts)
3. I think we KNOW who has the better GOTV!
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 07:43 PM
Sep 2012

But sad that we didn't get even a little DNC bump. I'll bet it did help enthusiasm for the decideds quite a bit.

Stinky The Clown

(67,697 posts)
4. Who are the Undecideds in NC?
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 07:49 PM
Sep 2012

Im betting they're all white and mostly working class, probably Reagan Democrat types.

wildeyed

(11,240 posts)
5. I have a few on FB who claim to be undecided.
Mon Sep 10, 2012, 08:07 PM
Sep 2012

And they are pretty much what you say. Male, white, working class background. I am pretty amazed that any of them are persuadable at all. They seem like they would be in the tank for the Reps. But they don't seem enthusiastic at all about Romney. So best case, we get their vote. Wouldn't be too bad if they just stayed home either.

wildeyed

(11,240 posts)
7. Economically, that would be the smart thing for them to do.
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:35 PM
Sep 2012

Most of them are good on gay and lesbian issues too. Never seen any of them make an overtly racist remark, but that does not necessarily mean they are not thinking it. Hoping we can ....oh so gently.... persuade them to the dems by November.

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