General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNow I am really , really concerned.
Last edited Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:18 AM - Edit history (1)
For the last two weeks, I have been at home, reading as much as I can, from all over the world, to try and understand as much as I can about this Covid-19. Ive also asked questions of health care professionals, and of those whom I believe are sick with the diseases. I am much more concerned each day with what I have learned.
Here are my bullet items I have gathered. Please think about these points.
- we are in the very, very early stages here in our country. I believe Italy is definitely similar to what our nation is gong to look like very, very soon. I am sure we are about to run out of ICU beds in about one week (April 1) in many area of the country.
Why we must act now- forecast by state here: https://covidactnow.org
- only those essential employees should be at work now. If I owned a company doing ANY service work, except medical related, I would shut the company down today, and send all employees home, and urge them to prepare. What is essential? The DHS has determined General categories of employees who will be essential through this event: https://fortune.com/2020/03/20/essential-workers-government-list-employees-coronavirus/
- even with Social Distancing , we are going to run out of ICU beds in about two weeks- two and a half tops. (April 7-10). The curve isnt going to be a couple of day blizzard- it is going to be a rolling horrible disaster for MONTHS. If we are lucky, it will peak in late May, and the overwhelmed ICUs will finally be AT MAX Capacity on the downswing again by the end of JULY. I really think THAT is the time frame we are working on.
The event and the dying isnt going to be over by then, its just going to be down to a 2-3% level again, instead of a 15% level. Yes, when we overwhelm the iCU beds, the death rate will skyrocket as it is doing now in Italy. The death rate wont fall until we have ICU care available for everyone who gets really sick, and I dont think that will be likely until late summer at the earliest. I hope Im wrong. I dont think I will be.
Our culture of refusing to heed government direction means we will be more like a third world country in our death rate.
Koreans are less individualistic than Americans. They obey rules for the good of society better than American tend to. The Chinese were able to clamp down on civil liberties to quarantine whole cities. People wont allow that here. To many are just against rules. Its American culture to go 80 in a 65 zone. So to will be our failure here.
This virus is very contagious- and some/many who get it will not know they are sick, or will have only minor symptoms, and will carry it to dozens or hundreds of others , many of whom will not survive.
it comes from another species- we are not yet sure if it was a bat or a bird. In either case, or bodies will not react quickly, and it will stay in us and keep an individual sick longer than typical illnesses we are used to. We wont fully recover in a few days- it may be 10 days into the really bad part, and it may be a month or more before we recover enough to no longer be contagious. Its NOT a 3-day flu. But it could be a 30-day horrific experience. When they say 70% of cases are mild, they mean 70% wont need supplemental oxygen or ICU care. It can make people sick as a dog, like the worst flu you ever had, for 10-14 days, and if you dont need oxygen to survive, they are calling that mild.
it wont be fully over as a pandemic until either:
A. the majority of people left on the planet have had it, and developed immunity, or
B. A vaccine is successfully developed - POSSIBLY in summer or fall of 2021 or early 2022, AND it is produced in sufficient quantities to inoculate everyone.
- We SHOULD have an antibody test within a shorter time- a few months, hopefully, that will allow doctors to tell if you already have had covid-19. IF so, then the majority opinion now seems to be that you wont be able to catch it twice, and you will be able to go back to work. That is how some economic recovery will be able to be started- by those who already have been sick and are well again. This assumes that the virus does not evolve into different strains rapidly. There appear to be two different strains already- but we dont have good science yet to tell whether they developed slowly, or quickly.
God help us all- its going to get much worse before it gets better.
P.S. my favorite voice right now, on YouTube, is a U.K. nursing instructor named Dr. John Campbell. Go look him up and subscribe to his daily video- its extremely helpful in understanding the latest information. Here is one of his videos: watch and learn! Be safe!
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)That about sums it up from what I have concluded over the last few weeks. Until a vaccine is widely available, we are pretty much screwed.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Yes, I have vast numbers of case studies to prove this theory beyond a shadow of a doubt
CountAllVotes
(20,854 posts)This is what Laurie Garrett has been saying for weeks now.
She is on twitter @Laurie_Garrett
She said we were right on track to be Italy in a couple of weeks.
No one listened.
She's been on interviews recently with Laurence O'Donnell, Rachel Maddow, and below, Amy Goodman on Democracy Now:
https://www.democracynow.org/2020/2/3/laurie_garrett_coronavirus_trump_admin_response
We've got a tough time ahead of us.
How many will die because of dump's lies?
Hoax he called it ... uh huh.
Many sad/tragic days to follow no doubt.
Native
(5,935 posts)Of course no one was listening several weeks ago. I was the "alarmist" of my family/neighborhood/circle of friends. And now we have many people who are tuning out simply because it's too scary for them (and I understand this).
Captain Stern
(2,195 posts)For a second there, I thought Susan Collins had joined DU.
Croney
(4,646 posts)KY_EnviroGuy
(14,483 posts)This is all very disheartening to us older folks......
MartyTheGreek
(562 posts)Trumps return to work mantra will fade away. Dems need to run his gaff: "Some people can even go to work." Over and over again to show how utterly dangerous this man is for real Americans! He must be stopped in politicizing this pandemic for his gain! This will peel away more magats and destroy his ratings!
KY_EnviroGuy
(14,483 posts)and calling out tRump's lies and deceptions. They've worn out the "both sides" method of reporting.
Like a lingering bad cold, that return to work mantra will be floating around right-wing social media for months even if he changes his tune. Like a drug, I think they need some idiocy from time to time to maintain their daily buzz from being enraged.
KY......
uponit7771
(90,225 posts)MartyTheGreek
(562 posts)I need to find the links from my reading on this over the weekend...
-Seems to be hitting 20 somethings that Vape, or smokers of all ages, a little harder. The sooner you quit the better.
-Italians eat a cleaner Mediterranean diet vs. Americans mostly eating Standard American Diet, to include many overweight and diabetics folks that may get hit harder. And, of course to include other lung conditions and ailments.
-It's pollen season here in the SE, many people sneezing. Keep distances!
-Gas pumps! Add, gas handles, ATM buttons, door knobs, anything you touch in public can be a carrier for hours on surfaces, to include cardboard and food wrappers. I take my wipes and hand sanitizer with me in public places.
May all seem a little morbid, but some things to think about in the days ahead.
Alwaysna
(574 posts)BumRushDaShow
(127,298 posts)BlancheSplanchnik
(20,219 posts)gordianot
(15,226 posts)Shortages in food are coming there will eventually be food riots as the supply chain collapses. Yes I am a pessimist.
Jamastiene
(38,187 posts)It is realist.
LovingA2andMI
(7,006 posts)Get ready.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)Just what we need right now. Give realism a whirl. Its pessimism with facts.
Jamastiene
(38,187 posts)calling it a Chinese virus and telling us malaria drugs that will poison us will cute it.
You are right that it is going to get way worse before it gets better, but it's less our own fault and more the fault of asshole liars in our government who are padding their stock portfolios and trying to get exclusive rights to a vaccine and PPE gear. The greed, lying, and selfishness of those in charge of our own government will be at fault.
Tucker08087
(621 posts)Everything that you have said, I am in agreement with. I will add one more problem that I find may be my greatest concern: The Italian government finally came clean. They finally took measures to save their country. They were finally brutally honest. Ours will NOT do that. And thought Americans do 65 in a 70 zone, they are getting mixed messages. We are putting our lives in the hands of a man who cares nothing about this nation or its people, knows nothing about science or medicine, and has nothing in his psychological makeup that makes him feel loss, sadness, guilt, responsibility, etc, and enough people still believe and worship him and will spread this virus as stupidly as the have spread his lies.
One of my best friends since college lives in Italy, so while I followed this virus from its early stages, and- dont get me wrong- i WAS terrified, my daily conversations with her made it easier for me to get through to some people. I could give first-hand accounts from someone who they knew I truly knew. The MAGA? They dont care. I spoke to one-an ER nurse, and Im disgusted because 2 of her 3 children are handicapped and I was so sure his mockery of the disabled reporter would turn her stomach, and when it didnt, our friendship DID change. But she lives a few house away and were GOOD friends before all of this, and since our whole town is assumed to be infected, and her husband, one son and her mom are all on chemo, I thought Id be nice and call.
She pretty much told me off: Shes an ER nurse. This virus has been blown way out of proportion. She has no protective gear at all, people cough in her face all day and she doesnt care because its a big scam.
So add that to every correct thing you listed, and we are totally screwed. I need to go to the gyno & I dont even want to go there! Even some of our health care professionals arent taking this seriously and are spreading this to their patients. Im sick and angry, but also sad.
rainin
(3,010 posts)This is one reality no one will be able to hide from much longer. Propaganda can't hide the sick and dead among us. She'll see it soon. I'm sad for her kids. They needed a mom who would protect them
Please update when she changes her tune. I'm curious how long it'll take
If she admits it. Im curious myself. This conversation just happened last night. (Sunday) I texted my whole family (and several friends) and EVERYONE is 😮 shocked!
Joinfortmill
(14,238 posts)It's best to be informed.
wyldwolf
(43,865 posts)... parents are not taking this seriously.
I'm waiting for my company, already in financial straits for the last two years, circling the drain. No one there has said anything to us about our fate when we come out of this, but most of us already know.
I jokingly told me wife that the difference between us now, and my grandparents in 1929, is my grandfather knew how to hunt.
Chainfire
(17,305 posts)He said that the Federal Government could print an infinite amount of money, to support banking, if the need arose. He flat out admitted to what the Fed had done so far was to flood the country with money. That scares me as much as the flu. Being early into retirement, the quality of the balance of my life (if I make it through the flu) is predicated upon savings that were clawed out of a working man's salary over many years. Inflation can steal the value of saved money faster than Bernie Madoff on cocaine.
I will say that I am trying to tamp down the fear of an economic disaster, because I find it psychologically difficult to handle more than one life threatening situation at the time. It may be academic anyway, if I get the virus, I probably won't need to worry about the future anyway.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)oldsoftie
(12,410 posts)They didnt stop travel to and from China, because they use so many Chinese workers. Restrictions were actually fought to start with. That was a big mistake
Italy's population is a good bit older than ours; nearly 8 yrs older on average.
Their smoking rate is also about 10% higher than the US.
Are those differences enough to make a noticeable difference in what happens HERE? I have no idea.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)Also of note our death rate isnt tracking the same as Italys.
Chainfire
(17,305 posts)The powers that be will always downplay the seriousness of such situations. It is good for morale. The real danger to our future would be if the virus mutates to a more deadly configuration. It is a numbers game, the more people that get it, the better the odds of mutation.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)Nobody here has any unique insight, really, even if they think they do.
Silent3
(15,018 posts)...that Susan Collins had tested positive.
Rube Icon
(78 posts)This needs to be read by as many people as possible.
Kerrycrat
(159 posts)I cant do without a paycheck for that long.
Igel
(35,191 posts)How bad it gets really depends on what we do. It's fairly bad in some places, getting worse in others, and staying flat in a third. How it progresses depends on what's done locally and keeping it from spreading out from hot spots.
You make "essential" too narrow a group. Medical? Sure. But we need farmers, we need people to keep water and natural gas and electricity going. We need people to continue to make a number of things and provide a number of services.
The refusal to obey government in normal times will spill over for some in times of emergency. It doesn't help that a number of people seem to be saying things like, "Now is the chance to show how all-controlling government is a good thing--let's advance the cause and use this for our political goals." On either side.
We keep learning more about how contagious it is. We confuse "it can be transmitted this way" with "it's often transmitted this way." Numbers are in short supply and this both creates doubt on the part of who need information to compel them to believe and overreaction on the part of those who are looking for reasons to believe.
We have antibody tests created. Getting them in production will take a little time. But even those who have acquired immunity can still pick up and spread the virus by physical means. The evidence for two separate strains completely fell apart and turned into an instance of assuming the premise. Motives are unclear (I think it was to cover the Chinese government's collective butt.)
But overall there will be many more cases than there are now. How bad it gets really depends on people, and that'll be by locale.
HarlanPepper
(2,042 posts)Jarqui
(10,110 posts)is about to be experienced in America.
With 5.5 times the population, the numbers are probably going to be close to 5.5 times Italy's. They may have had a disproportionate number of elderly but the US has a disproportionate number of obese who are also in the high risk category with the elderly.
It's too late to avoid something obscenely ugly. It's like an out of control steamroller coming at us.
Hopefully sane minds will soon prevail and eventually cut our losses.
Rube Icon
(78 posts)As I said earlier, this post needs max eyeballs.