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James48

(4,416 posts)
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 05:33 AM Mar 2020

Now I am really , really concerned.

Last edited Tue Mar 24, 2020, 03:18 AM - Edit history (1)

For the last two weeks, I have been at home, reading as much as I can, from all over the world, to try and understand as much as I can about this Covid-19. I’ve also asked questions of health care professionals, and of those whom I believe are sick with the diseases. I am much more concerned each day with what I have learned.

Here are my bullet items I have gathered. Please think about these points.

- we are in the very, very early stages here in our country. I believe Italy is definitely similar to what our nation is gong to look like very, very soon. I am sure we are about to run out of ICU beds in about one week (April 1) in many area of the country.
Why we must act now- forecast by state here: https://covidactnow.org


- only those essential employees should be at work now. If I owned a company doing ANY service work, except medical related, I would shut the company down today, and send all employees home, and urge them to prepare. What is essential? The DHS has determined General categories of employees who will be essential through this event: https://fortune.com/2020/03/20/essential-workers-government-list-employees-coronavirus/

- even with “Social Distancing” , we are going to run out of ICU beds in about two weeks- two and a half tops. (April 7-10). The curve isn’t going to be a couple of day “blizzard”- it is going to be a rolling horrible disaster for MONTHS. If we are lucky, it will peak in late May, and the overwhelmed ICU’s will finally be AT MAX Capacity on the downswing again by the end of JULY. I really think THAT is the time frame we are working on.


— The event and the dying isn’t going to be over by then, it’s just going to be down to a 2-3% level again, instead of a 15% level. Yes, when we overwhelm the iCU beds, the death rate will skyrocket as it is doing now in Italy. The death rate won’t fall until we have ICU care available for everyone who gets really sick, and I don’t think that will be likely until late summer at the earliest. I hope I’m wrong. I don’t think I will be.

— Our culture of refusing to heed government direction means we will be more like a third world country in our death rate.

Koreans are less individualistic than Americans. They obey rules for the good of society better than American tend to. The Chinese were able to clamp down on civil liberties to quarantine whole cities. People won’t allow that here. To many are just against rules. It’s American culture to go 80 in a 65 zone. So to will be our failure here.

This virus is very contagious- and some/many who get it will not know they are sick, or will have only minor symptoms, and will carry it to dozens or hundreds of others , many of whom will not survive.

— it comes from another species- we are not yet sure if it was a bat or a bird. In either case, or bodies will not react quickly, and it will stay in us and keep an individual sick longer than typical illnesses we are used to. We won’t fully recover in a few days- it may be 10 days into the really bad part, and it may be a month or more before we recover enough to no longer be contagious. It’s NOT a 3-day flu. But it could be a 30-day horrific experience. When they say 70% of cases are “mild”, they mean 70% won’t need supplemental oxygen or ICU care. It can make people “sick as a dog”, like the worst flu you ever had, for 10-14 days, and if you don’t need oxygen to survive, they are calling that “mild”.’

— it won’t be fully over as a pandemic until either:

A. the majority of people left on the planet have had it, and developed immunity, or

B. A vaccine is successfully developed - POSSIBLY in summer or fall of 2021 or early 2022, AND it is produced in sufficient quantities to inoculate everyone.

—- We SHOULD have an antibody test within a shorter time- a few months, hopefully, that will allow doctors to tell if you already have had covid-19. IF so, then the majority opinion now seems to be that you won’t be able to catch it twice, and you will be able to go back to work. That is how some economic recovery will be able to be started- by those who already have been sick and are well again. This assumes that the virus does not evolve into different strains rapidly. There appear to be two different strains already- but we don’t have good science yet to tell whether they developed slowly, or quickly.

— God help us all- it’s going to get much worse before it gets better.

P.S. my favorite voice right now, on YouTube, is a U.K. nursing instructor named Dr. John Campbell. Go look him up and subscribe to his daily video- it’s extremely helpful in understanding the latest information. Here is one of his videos: watch and learn! Be safe!




38 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Now I am really , really concerned. (Original Post) James48 Mar 2020 OP
Yup, Sherman A1 Mar 2020 #1
From my study of the news, Americans are less worried about disease than running out of TP Baclava Mar 2020 #2
Exactly CountAllVotes Mar 2020 #3
For many weeks lots of experts have been saying we'll mimic northern Italy Native Mar 2020 #7
Your OP title threw me off. Captain Stern Mar 2020 #4
Good one! Croney Mar 2020 #6
Agree, from all I've read. Yet, Trump wants to open the nation back up in two weeks. KY_EnviroGuy Mar 2020 #5
Sadly, when the US death totals are announced... MartyTheGreek Mar 2020 #8
Let's hope main-stream media gets more into reality and truth..... KY_EnviroGuy Mar 2020 #34
Yes, the rolling peaks is what is dangerous uponit7771 Mar 2020 #9
A couple of my observations for U.S. Coronavirus impact WRT Lifestyle... MartyTheGreek Mar 2020 #10
WRT? Alwaysna Mar 2020 #16
"With Respect To" BumRushDaShow Mar 2020 #17
I've been wearing my winter gloves when I have to go out. BlancheSplanchnik Mar 2020 #36
I agree on every point and would add some more. gordianot Mar 2020 #11
That is not pessimist in this current political reality we are in. Jamastiene Mar 2020 #13
This is real.... LovingA2andMI Mar 2020 #27
Yes, indeed. HarlanPepper Mar 2020 #32
So far, our "government direction" has gone from calling it a hoax to Jamastiene Mar 2020 #12
I agree completely. Tucker08087 Mar 2020 #14
She is facing a harsh reality, even if she didn't know it when you spoke rainin Mar 2020 #23
I will. Tucker08087 Mar 2020 #28
Thank you. Joinfortmill Mar 2020 #15
I'm watching kids playing in groups on my street... wyldwolf Mar 2020 #18
I watched the President of one of the Federal Banks speaking yesterday Chainfire Mar 2020 #24
the nature of pandemic and viruses as they do mutate and the 2nd/3rd mutation can even be worse beachbumbob Mar 2020 #19
A few caveats with regard to Italy. oldsoftie Mar 2020 #20
Yes HarlanPepper Mar 2020 #38
The OPs assessment may be optimistic Chainfire Mar 2020 #21
Or pessimistic HarlanPepper Mar 2020 #37
When I saw the title "Now I am really, really concerned" my first thought was... Silent3 Mar 2020 #22
. JudyM Mar 2020 #31
Off to the Left Column! Rube Icon Mar 2020 #25
How many people have the finances Kerrycrat Mar 2020 #26
Rebuttal Igel Mar 2020 #29
Gee a rational fact based post. HarlanPepper Mar 2020 #33
Good post. I agree that what Italy has been experiencing Jarqui Mar 2020 #30
Glad to See This Here Rube Icon Mar 2020 #35

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)
1. Yup,
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 05:36 AM
Mar 2020

That about sums it up from what I have concluded over the last few weeks. Until a vaccine is widely available, we are pretty much screwed.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
2. From my study of the news, Americans are less worried about disease than running out of TP
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 05:51 AM
Mar 2020

Yes, I have vast numbers of case studies to prove this theory beyond a shadow of a doubt

CountAllVotes

(20,854 posts)
3. Exactly
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 05:54 AM
Mar 2020

This is what Laurie Garrett has been saying for weeks now.

She is on twitter @Laurie_Garrett

She said we were right on track to be Italy in a couple of weeks.

No one listened.


She's been on interviews recently with Laurence O'Donnell, Rachel Maddow, and below, Amy Goodman on Democracy Now:

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/2/3/laurie_garrett_coronavirus_trump_admin_response

We've got a tough time ahead of us.

How many will die because of dump's lies?

Hoax he called it ... uh huh.

Many sad/tragic days to follow no doubt.


Native

(5,935 posts)
7. For many weeks lots of experts have been saying we'll mimic northern Italy
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 06:24 AM
Mar 2020

Of course no one was listening several weeks ago. I was the "alarmist" of my family/neighborhood/circle of friends. And now we have many people who are tuning out simply because it's too scary for them (and I understand this).

KY_EnviroGuy

(14,483 posts)
5. Agree, from all I've read. Yet, Trump wants to open the nation back up in two weeks.
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 06:00 AM
Mar 2020

This is all very disheartening to us older folks......

MartyTheGreek

(562 posts)
8. Sadly, when the US death totals are announced...
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 06:26 AM
Mar 2020

Trumps return to work mantra will fade away. Dems need to run his gaff: "Some people can even go to work." Over and over again to show how utterly dangerous this man is for real Americans! He must be stopped in politicizing this pandemic for his gain! This will peel away more magats and destroy his ratings!

KY_EnviroGuy

(14,483 posts)
34. Let's hope main-stream media gets more into reality and truth.....
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 02:02 PM
Mar 2020

and calling out tRump's lies and deceptions. They've worn out the "both sides" method of reporting.

Like a lingering bad cold, that return to work mantra will be floating around right-wing social media for months even if he changes his tune. Like a drug, I think they need some idiocy from time to time to maintain their daily buzz from being enraged.

KY......

MartyTheGreek

(562 posts)
10. A couple of my observations for U.S. Coronavirus impact WRT Lifestyle...
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 07:02 AM
Mar 2020

I need to find the links from my reading on this over the weekend...

-Seems to be hitting 20 somethings that Vape, or smokers of all ages, a little harder. The sooner you quit the better.

-Italians eat a cleaner Mediterranean diet vs. Americans mostly eating Standard American Diet, to include many overweight and diabetics folks that may get hit harder. And, of course to include other lung conditions and ailments.

-It's pollen season here in the SE, many people sneezing. Keep distances!

-Gas pumps! Add, gas handles, ATM buttons, door knobs, anything you touch in public can be a carrier for hours on surfaces, to include cardboard and food wrappers. I take my wipes and hand sanitizer with me in public places.

May all seem a little morbid, but some things to think about in the days ahead.

gordianot

(15,226 posts)
11. I agree on every point and would add some more.
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 07:06 AM
Mar 2020

Shortages in food are coming there will eventually be food riots as the supply chain collapses. Yes I am a pessimist.

Jamastiene

(38,187 posts)
12. So far, our "government direction" has gone from calling it a hoax to
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 07:14 AM
Mar 2020

calling it a Chinese virus and telling us malaria drugs that will poison us will cute it.

You are right that it is going to get way worse before it gets better, but it's less our own fault and more the fault of asshole liars in our government who are padding their stock portfolios and trying to get exclusive rights to a vaccine and PPE gear. The greed, lying, and selfishness of those in charge of our own government will be at fault.

Tucker08087

(621 posts)
14. I agree completely.
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 07:30 AM
Mar 2020

Everything that you have said, I am in agreement with. I will add one more problem that I find may be my greatest concern: The Italian government finally came clean. They finally took measures to save their country. They were finally brutally honest. Ours will NOT do that. And thought Americans do 65 in a 70 zone, they are getting mixed messages. We are putting our lives in the hands of a man who cares nothing about this nation or its people, knows nothing about science or medicine, and has nothing in his psychological makeup that makes him feel loss, sadness, guilt, responsibility, etc, and enough people still believe and worship him and will spread this virus as stupidly as the have spread his lies.
One of my best friends since college lives in Italy, so while I followed this virus from its early stages, and- don’t get me wrong- i WAS terrified, my daily conversations with her made it easier for me to get through to some people. I could give first-hand accounts from someone who they knew I truly knew. The MAGA? They don’t care. I spoke to one-an ER nurse, and I’m disgusted because 2 of her 3 children are handicapped and I was so sure his mockery of the disabled reporter would turn her stomach, and when it didn’t, our friendship DID change. But she lives a few house away and were GOOD friends before all of this, and since our whole town is assumed to be infected, and her husband, one son and her mom are all on chemo, I thought I’d be nice and call.
She pretty much told me off: She’s an ER nurse. This virus has been blown way out of proportion. She has no protective gear at all, people cough in her face all day and she doesn’t care because it’s a big scam.
So add that to every correct thing you listed, and we are totally screwed. I need to go to the gyno & I don’t even want to go there! Even some of our health care professionals aren’t taking this seriously and are spreading this to their patients. I’m sick and angry, but also sad.

rainin

(3,010 posts)
23. She is facing a harsh reality, even if she didn't know it when you spoke
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 08:04 AM
Mar 2020

This is one reality no one will be able to hide from much longer. Propaganda can't hide the sick and dead among us. She'll see it soon. I'm sad for her kids. They needed a mom who would protect them

Please update when she changes her tune. I'm curious how long it'll take

Tucker08087

(621 posts)
28. I will.
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 08:44 AM
Mar 2020

If she admits it. I’m curious myself. This conversation just happened last night. (Sunday) I texted my whole family (and several friends) and EVERYONE is 😮 shocked!

wyldwolf

(43,865 posts)
18. I'm watching kids playing in groups on my street...
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 07:56 AM
Mar 2020

... parents are not taking this seriously.

I'm waiting for my company, already in financial straits for the last two years, circling the drain. No one there has said anything to us about our fate when we come out of this, but most of us already know.

I jokingly told me wife that the difference between us now, and my grandparents in 1929, is my grandfather knew how to hunt.

Chainfire

(17,305 posts)
24. I watched the President of one of the Federal Banks speaking yesterday
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 08:15 AM
Mar 2020

He said that the Federal Government could print an infinite amount of money, to support banking, if the need arose. He flat out admitted to what the Fed had done so far was to flood the country with money. That scares me as much as the flu. Being early into retirement, the quality of the balance of my life (if I make it through the flu) is predicated upon savings that were clawed out of a working man's salary over many years. Inflation can steal the value of saved money faster than Bernie Madoff on cocaine.


I will say that I am trying to tamp down the fear of an economic disaster, because I find it psychologically difficult to handle more than one life threatening situation at the time. It may be academic anyway, if I get the virus, I probably won't need to worry about the future anyway.

oldsoftie

(12,410 posts)
20. A few caveats with regard to Italy.
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 08:00 AM
Mar 2020

They didnt stop travel to and from China, because they use so many Chinese workers. Restrictions were actually fought to start with. That was a big mistake
Italy's population is a good bit older than ours; nearly 8 yrs older on average.
Their smoking rate is also about 10% higher than the US.

Are those differences enough to make a noticeable difference in what happens HERE? I have no idea.

Chainfire

(17,305 posts)
21. The OPs assessment may be optimistic
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 08:00 AM
Mar 2020

The powers that be will always downplay the seriousness of such situations. It is good for morale. The real danger to our future would be if the virus mutates to a more deadly configuration. It is a numbers game, the more people that get it, the better the odds of mutation.

Silent3

(15,018 posts)
22. When I saw the title "Now I am really, really concerned" my first thought was...
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 08:04 AM
Mar 2020

...that Susan Collins had tested positive.

Igel

(35,191 posts)
29. Rebuttal
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 08:50 AM
Mar 2020

How bad it gets really depends on what we do. It's fairly bad in some places, getting worse in others, and staying flat in a third. How it progresses depends on what's done locally and keeping it from spreading out from hot spots.

You make "essential" too narrow a group. Medical? Sure. But we need farmers, we need people to keep water and natural gas and electricity going. We need people to continue to make a number of things and provide a number of services.

The refusal to obey government in normal times will spill over for some in times of emergency. It doesn't help that a number of people seem to be saying things like, "Now is the chance to show how all-controlling government is a good thing--let's advance the cause and use this for our political goals." On either side.

We keep learning more about how contagious it is. We confuse "it can be transmitted this way" with "it's often transmitted this way." Numbers are in short supply and this both creates doubt on the part of who need information to compel them to believe and overreaction on the part of those who are looking for reasons to believe.

We have antibody tests created. Getting them in production will take a little time. But even those who have acquired immunity can still pick up and spread the virus by physical means. The evidence for two separate strains completely fell apart and turned into an instance of assuming the premise. Motives are unclear (I think it was to cover the Chinese government's collective butt.)

But overall there will be many more cases than there are now. How bad it gets really depends on people, and that'll be by locale.

Jarqui

(10,110 posts)
30. Good post. I agree that what Italy has been experiencing
Mon Mar 23, 2020, 08:51 AM
Mar 2020

is about to be experienced in America.

With 5.5 times the population, the numbers are probably going to be close to 5.5 times Italy's. They may have had a disproportionate number of elderly but the US has a disproportionate number of obese who are also in the high risk category with the elderly.

It's too late to avoid something obscenely ugly. It's like an out of control steamroller coming at us.
Hopefully sane minds will soon prevail and eventually cut our losses.

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