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Mon Mar 23, 2020, 03:56 PM

US cases have been increasing by 33%/day for the last 3 weeks.

That means the case count is doubling every 2.5 days. The behavior is remarkably consistent since at least March 2, when there were only 105 cases. If that exponential behavior remains in place for just another two weeks, there will be on the order of 2.5 million cases in the USA.

The global All Case Fatality Ratio (including cases that are still active) has gone up to 4.4%, and the Case Fatality Ratio for resolved cases (those who have recovered or died) has risen to 13.9% from 5.6% two weeks ago.

That last number scares the living shit out of me. Unless something really major happens to change the epidemiology of this thing, the USA is looking at an unavoidable human catastrophe that will make the argument over stimulus packages look like playground name-calling.

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Reply US cases have been increasing by 33%/day for the last 3 weeks. (Original post)
The_jackalope Mar 2020 OP
dem4decades Mar 2020 #1
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #4
dem4decades Mar 2020 #8
genxlib Mar 2020 #2
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #3
genxlib Mar 2020 #10
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #11
genxlib Mar 2020 #12
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #13
genxlib Mar 2020 #14
genxlib Mar 2020 #15
Javaman Mar 2020 #5
central scrutinizer Mar 2020 #7
NRaleighLiberal Mar 2020 #6
EarthFirst Mar 2020 #9
Happy Hoosier Mar 2020 #16
The_jackalope Mar 2020 #18
Baclava Mar 2020 #17

Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 03:58 PM

1. As testing increases, incidents will increase. The number to watch is deaths. Unfortunately.

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Response to dem4decades (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:12 PM

4. Deaths are increasing at exactly the same rate.

33% a day since March 1. Close to 30,000 deaths in the USA by April 6, in two weeks.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #4)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:28 PM

8. Jeez, I hope not. Maybe I'm guilty of rose colored glasses too.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:08 PM

2. You are still only talking about tested and confirmed cases

It could already be that high in the real world.

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Response to genxlib (Reply #2)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:11 PM

3. That doesn't matter as much as the rate of hospitalization.

Undetected cases aren't severe enough for hospitalization, so are moot from an epidemiological POV.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #3)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:37 PM

10. You are missing a VERY important word in that sentence

Undetected cases aren't severe enough YET for hospitalization, so are moot from an epidemiological POV.

If you are talking about old cases that never got serious enough for treatment, then fine. that was relevant when we had a chance to contain and control but we are past that now.

But the incubation period is anywhere from 5-14 days. So many of those unknown cases are headed to the hospital in the near future. It absolutely matters how many are out there. Looking at the current numbers don't really tell you what is coming.

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Response to genxlib (Reply #10)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:41 PM

11. Once they're hospitalized, presumably they are identified as C-19

In terms of preparation of the medical system, yes it matters very much. But there is now more than 14 days of data out there, so the general projections are getting more solid. I'm more concerned that they are averaged over a large number of regions, so it may tend to over or underestimate the future conditions in any particular place.

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #11)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:54 PM

12. I think we are probably more-or-less on the same page

My point is that the unknowns related to lack of testing will continue to manifest themselves in new hospitalizations far beyond what the tested confirmations tells us. But yes, the hospitalizations are growing at a matching rate so you could model either one to get a picture of the future.

Definitely, the regional nature of this will definitely change the projections. Some places will get hit harder than the averages suggest.

Peace

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Response to genxlib (Reply #12)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 05:03 PM

13. We're in violent agreement then?

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #13)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 05:06 PM

14. Touche

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Response to The_jackalope (Reply #11)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 05:47 PM

15. This website was interesting to me

It attempts to break things down by state.

Still a lot of averaging to that but closer than the nationwide numbers.

https://covidactnow.org/

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:19 PM

5. we are on pace to easily beat out china.

my the universe help us.

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Response to Javaman (Reply #5)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:25 PM

7. "I like the numbers where they are"

Has overtaken “let them eat cake” as the most callous statement ever.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:22 PM

6. yup. I've just multiplying each day X 1.4 to get tomorrow's number.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #6)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 04:33 PM

9. With a factor of 1.4 New York will have 116K cases by Friday... nt

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 05:50 PM

16. I saw an analysis of this...

It mean 5 figure deaths..... best case.

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Response to Happy Hoosier (Reply #16)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 07:03 PM

18. The US will probably see five figure deaths in two weeks.

I'm a died-in-the-wool pessimist when it comes to humanity's psychological ability to take the necessary steps to slow down invisible catastrophes (yes, climate change, I'm looking at you) at the expense of their own comfort and enjoyment.

A lot will depend on when the disease becomes visible to average people through hospital shortages, the collapse of essential services and the deaths of acquaintances. How much devastation that will wreak remains to be seen. But it's coming, probably within two months, IMO.

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Response to The_jackalope (Original post)

Mon Mar 23, 2020, 06:19 PM

17. So we will take over the world lead from China on Fri? (81000) Trump's Virus!

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