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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy did Dr. Birx lie that there is Covid-19 testing of the U.S. population?
So, as reported in The Hill, Dr. Birx said the following at Thursday's White House presser:
Birx, speaking at a White House press briefing, singled out a recent study on the United Kingdom that originally predicted 500,000 people would die from the virus and has since been revised down to predict 20,000 deaths in the U.K. She said the data the government has collected does not show that 20 percent of the U.S. population would be infected with COVID-19, cautioning against predictions that say so.
"When people start talking about 20 percent of a population getting infected, it is very scary but we don't have data that matches that based on the experience," Birx said.
Birx, an HIV/AIDS expert from the State Department who was brought on to coordinate the federal government's response to the coronavirus, noted that 19 of the 50 U.S. states are showing a persistently low level of coronavirus cases despite reporting early infections. These 19 states each have fewer than 200 cases, Birx said, and are still working to actively contain the virus rather than mitigate its spread.
"That's almost 40 percent of the country with extraordinarily low numbers and they are testing," Birx said.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489774-birx-cautions-against-inaccurate-models-predicting-signficant-coronavirus
Surely she knows she is lying when she says this:
That's almost 40 percent of the country with extraordinarily low numbers and they are testing"
Maybe she and others close to Trump can get tested at the drop of a hat, but the rest of us can't. In California, only people in hospitals in serious condition, and symptomatic hospital workers, can get tested.
So why is she saying that?
woodsprite
(11,910 posts)SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London had presented a model that projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and flatten its curve. The model predicted far fewer deaths if lockdown measures measures such as those taken by the British and some US states were undertaken. After lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.
Ferguson explained, I should admit, weve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What weve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction
something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5. A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.
Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, Ferguson predicts UK hospitals should be able to handle their COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or fewer people will die from the virus itself or related complications. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
Amid widespread reporting on his new death rate estimates including by Dr. Birx, who cited his 20,000 estimate during Thursday's press conference Ferguson issued a statement on social media Thursday to clear up confusion about his revised estimates:
Link to tweet
So he DIDN'T change his earlier projection, but Birx (and every right wing internet site) says he did. And are now using it to argue that we should lift the lockdowns.
mercuryblues
(14,530 posts)Under 3,000 people have been tested. of those 3,000 almost 500 results are positive. We have a 2 week wait to get results. So how the fuck would she know there are pockets of areas with less than 200 cases? When you test less than 1% of the population of course it is going to look like it has a low level of Coronavirus. FFS. She needs to go. She is as dangerous as trump at this point.
uponit7771
(90,335 posts)uponit7771
(90,335 posts)Mike Nelson
(9,951 posts)... about the data not supporting something, i forget exactly what, now... i thought it was surprising, but guessed she could be saying the data did not support a high number because there was no testing and no documented record. i think they are still not testing people... they are advised to stay home and leave the resources for the "sickest patients" (that's in my letter from Blue Shield). they will never test and know how many people had the virus... deaths may even be given as other causes. Birx may be going along with the program.
still_one
(92,116 posts)are rationing, and the criteria to have the test done is quite rigid, unless of course you are a politician or a celebrity
What is alarming is that even with the underwhelming tests, the number of cases in the U.S. has exceeded Italy and China, at their peak, and those countries are trying to test everyone, while we are not, which leads to the disturbing question, how many of the untested in the U.S. have the virus?
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)And that shows a crazy abnormal for the season spite in fevers throughout Florida. Looks like Florida might be the next New York.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241372271.html
still_one
(92,116 posts)temperature, which also implies there may be even more cases out there
BigmanPigman
(51,584 posts)She is one of them.....
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)dem4decades
(11,282 posts)And ask her what percentage of the population had been tested by State?
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)dem4decades
(11,282 posts)SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)deminks
(11,014 posts)I'm guessing.
atreides1
(16,070 posts)Like a lot of people, both men and women, in her age group...she has nothing but her position...and if she were to lose that, she would lose who she believes she is!
Given the choice between doing what was right and doing what was right for her...she chose what was right for her!!!
Where Stephen Miller is Trump's Martin Bormann, Dr. Birx is Trump's Josef Mengele!!!!
spanone
(135,816 posts)LuckyCharms
(17,425 posts)She is submissive to him, like all of the people in his circle.
She's weak.
Whatever she was before, she's not now.
mfcorey1
(11,001 posts)mathematic
(1,434 posts)I think you think we're not because you live in CA, which is doing a terrible job in testing.
Yesterday nearly 100k tests were performed nationwide, which is just under 20% of our total testing done since this started. Today well over 100k tests will be done. Probably over 120k.
We had a slow response to this national emergency due to bad leadership but we're testing now.
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)And nobody with mild symptoms or no symptoms is getting tested in ANY state. So we have very little to go on as to how far this has spread.
mathematic
(1,434 posts)UK's NHS, for example, only today expanded testing to include certain NHS staff. Prior to that they were only testing seriously ill people in the hospital. In the US, in the states that are leading in testing, you can get tested without being hospitalized. That's what all the talk about "drive through testing" was this past week. (Obviously, you can't drive through anything if you're hospitalized).
Yes, CA is our most populous state but it's not our only state. And over the last couple days they've begun to test a lot more in CA (though still low) so you'll probably be noticing that soon.
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)mathematic
(1,434 posts)I don't really understand why you're specifically asking me for a list of states that are testing better than california, as prior to a couple days ago, it was most of them. I know the top 3 states in testing ny, washington, and louisiana all have drive through testing.
Again, the point of mentioning drive through testing was to contrast it with the UK's National Health Service, which is highly respected, and their decision to test only severely ill patients in the hospital. So the United States of America is testing people with a greater range of symptom severity than the UK's NHS.
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)The only reason "highly respected" UK NHS is only testing severely ill patients is, like us, that is all they have the resources to test. Their dipshit leader (who now has tested positive) did not take the necessary early action, and now they are behind the ball, like us.
There is limited drive through testing in CA too, but only for certain people. The average Californian, as well as the average New Yorker and Washingtonian, can't get tested unless they are seriously ill. Same with Louisiana, where stories like this still predominate:
Houma restaurant owner recovering from corona virus says husband can't get a test
https://www.wwltv.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/testing-still-unavailable-for-some/289-5aaa7e3f-d0a8-4c3e-9af2-61ba9bd8a7a6
I don't know what criteria you use to determine a state is a "leader" or "bad" at testing. All of the states are forced to ration testing because they just don't have the test kits, personnel and PPEs needed. And it's Trump's fault. He should have accepted the WHO test that was made available on January 17 and run with it. Our first confirmed case was January 20. Time was of the essence, as any epidemiologist could have told him. But the idiot xenophobe insisted it be an FDA test. Then the FDA, run by that Trump supplicant and Bork lookalike Robert Redfield, made matters even worse by totally botching the roll out with defective tests, delaying test deliveries for weeks, as the virus spread. The promised 1.5 million tests still haven't arrived to the states.
Compare that to H1N1, where the Obama administration pushed out 1 million test kits within 30 days of the first confirmed US case.
You can't blame this on states being bad at testing or not "leading" on testing. The states are victims of Trump administration malignant negligence.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)Iwasthere
(3,158 posts)Many hospitals are overwhelmed. They aren't testing the dead, or the severe cases coming in that are near death. Who know how big that number really is.
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)more so if there is no autopsy or lab test done. When the number of people dying goes well past what is normal, people will blame COVID-19, that is, in my limited experience, how people think about out of the norm events.