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Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:06 AM

Why did Dr. Birx lie that there is Covid-19 testing of the U.S. population?

So, as reported in The Hill, Dr. Birx said the following at Thursday's White House presser:

Birx cautions against inaccurate models predicting significant coronavirus spread

Birx, speaking at a White House press briefing, singled out a recent study on the United Kingdom that originally predicted 500,000 people would die from the virus and has since been revised down to predict 20,000 deaths in the U.K. She said the data the government has collected does not show that 20 percent of the U.S. population would be infected with COVID-19, cautioning against predictions that say so.

"When people start talking about 20 percent of a population getting infected, it is very scary but we don't have data that matches that based on the experience," Birx said.

Birx, an HIV/AIDS expert from the State Department who was brought on to coordinate the federal government's response to the coronavirus, noted that 19 of the 50 U.S. states are showing a persistently low level of coronavirus cases despite reporting early infections. These 19 states each have fewer than 200 cases, Birx said, and are still working to actively contain the virus rather than mitigate its spread.

"That's almost 40 percent of the country with extraordinarily low numbers and they are testing," Birx said.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/489774-birx-cautions-against-inaccurate-models-predicting-signficant-coronavirus

Surely she knows she is lying when she says this:
That's almost 40 percent of the country with extraordinarily low numbers and they are testing"

Maybe she and others close to Trump can get tested at the drop of a hat, but the rest of us can't. In California, only people in hospitals in serious condition, and symptomatic hospital workers, can get tested.

So why is she saying that?

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Reply Why did Dr. Birx lie that there is Covid-19 testing of the U.S. population? (Original post)
SunSeeker Mar 27 OP
woodsprite Mar 27 #1
SunSeeker Mar 27 #6
mercuryblues Mar 27 #2
uponit7771 Mar 27 #4
uponit7771 Mar 27 #3
Mike Nelson Mar 27 #5
still_one Mar 27 #7
SunSeeker Mar 27 #9
still_one Mar 27 #10
BigmanPigman Mar 27 #8
SunSeeker Mar 27 #14
dem4decades Mar 27 #11
SunSeeker Mar 27 #13
dem4decades Mar 27 #19
SunSeeker Mar 27 #20
deminks Mar 27 #12
atreides1 Mar 27 #15
spanone Mar 27 #16
LuckyCharms Mar 27 #17
mfcorey1 Mar 27 #18
mathematic Mar 27 #21
SunSeeker Mar 27 #22
mathematic Mar 27 #23
SunSeeker Mar 27 #24
mathematic Mar 27 #25
SunSeeker Mar 27 #27
Blue_true Mar 27 #26
Iwasthere Mar 27 #28
Blue_true Mar 27 #29
beachbumbob Mar 27 #30

Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:12 AM

1. Maybe Birx is Tump's Mengele. nt

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Response to woodsprite (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:47 AM

6. And she also was misleading about the UK death projections being "revised" from 500k to 20k.

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London had presented a model that projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and flatten its curve. The model predicted far fewer deaths if lockdown measures — measures such as those taken by the British and some US states — were undertaken. After lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.

Ferguson explained, “I should admit, we’ve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction… something more, a little bit above of the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5.” A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.

Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, Ferguson predicts UK hospitals should be able to handle their COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or fewer people will die from the virus itself or related complications. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

Amid widespread reporting on his new death rate estimates — including by Dr. Birx, who cited his 20,000 estimate during Thursday's press conference — Ferguson issued a statement on social media Thursday to “clear up confusion” about his revised estimates:

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).



So he DIDN'T change his earlier projection, but Birx (and every right wing internet site) says he did. And are now using it to argue that we should lift the lockdowns.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:30 AM

2. My state has a population of about 5 million

Under 3,000 people have been tested. of those 3,000 almost 500 results are positive. We have a 2 week wait to get results. So how the fuck would she know there are pockets of areas with less than 200 cases? When you test less than 1% of the population of course it is going to look like it has a low level of Coronavirus. FFS. She needs to go. She is as dangerous as trump at this point.


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Response to mercuryblues (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:35 AM

4. +1, everyone knows math but her and Red Dons minions

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:34 AM

3. K&R, she knows they don't have the per capita testing new your or Seattle has

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:38 AM

5. She said something yesterday...

... about the data not supporting something, i forget exactly what, now... i thought it was surprising, but guessed she could be saying the data did not support a high number because there was no testing and no documented record. i think they are still not testing people... they are advised to stay home and leave the resources for the "sickest patients" (that's in my letter from Blue Shield). they will never test and know how many people had the virus... deaths may even be given as other causes. Birx may be going along with the program.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 05:54 AM

7. They are not testing enough people. The test kits are just not available in a lot of cases, so they

are rationing, and the criteria to have the test done is quite rigid, unless of course you are a politician or a celebrity

What is alarming is that even with the underwhelming tests, the number of cases in the U.S. has exceeded Italy and China, at their peak, and those countries are trying to test everyone, while we are not, which leads to the disturbing question, how many of the untested in the U.S. have the virus?


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Response to still_one (Reply #7)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:02 AM

9. Yup. The only widespread "testing" we have are Kinsa thermometer reading data.

And that shows a crazy abnormal for the season spite in fevers throughout Florida. Looks like Florida might be the next New York.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241372271.html

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #9)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:11 AM

10. In addition, the problem with using temperature as a guide is that not everyone infected exhibits a

temperature, which also implies there may be even more cases out there



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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:00 AM

8. Simple, she works for tRump.

She is one of them.....

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #8)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:47 AM

14. Her sterling reputation is dying.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:17 AM

11. Is there a"terrible" reporter that can ask her to explain her answer?

And ask her what percentage of the population had been tested by State?

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Response to dem4decades (Reply #11)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:45 AM

13. That's a nasty question!

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #13)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:45 AM

19. Time to take the gloves off, at least for the reporters.

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Response to dem4decades (Reply #19)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 03:16 PM

20. Yes. LONG overdue. nt

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:43 AM

12. uh, #orangeface's goons threatened her life?

I'm guessing.

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Response to deminks (Reply #12)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:19 AM

15. Doubtful

Like a lot of people, both men and women, in her age group...she has nothing but her position...and if she were to lose that, she would lose who she believes she is!

Given the choice between doing what was right and doing what was right for her...she chose what was right for her!!!

Where Stephen Miller is Trump's Martin Bormann, Dr. Birx is Trump's Josef Mengele!!!!

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:21 AM

16. She's been compromised for whatever reason.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:24 AM

17. She hasn't the strength to stand up to Trump.

She is submissive to him, like all of the people in his circle.

She's weak.

Whatever she was before, she's not now.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:25 AM

18. KOMPROMAT!!!

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 03:38 PM

21. Because we ARE testing

I think you think we're not because you live in CA, which is doing a terrible job in testing.

Yesterday nearly 100k tests were performed nationwide, which is just under 20% of our total testing done since this started. Today well over 100k tests will be done. Probably over 120k.

We had a slow response to this national emergency due to bad leadership but we're testing now.

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Response to mathematic (Reply #21)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:45 PM

22. Well they're not in CA, our most populous state, so how can she say we're testing?

And nobody with mild symptoms or no symptoms is getting tested in ANY state. So we have very little to go on as to how far this has spread.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #22)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:38 PM

23. Not testing people with no/mild symtoms is standard around the world

UK's NHS, for example, only today expanded testing to include certain NHS staff. Prior to that they were only testing seriously ill people in the hospital. In the US, in the states that are leading in testing, you can get tested without being hospitalized. That's what all the talk about "drive through testing" was this past week. (Obviously, you can't drive through anything if you're hospitalized).

Yes, CA is our most populous state but it's not our only state. And over the last couple days they've begun to test a lot more in CA (though still low) so you'll probably be noticing that soon.

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Response to mathematic (Reply #23)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:54 PM

24. What states are "leadung in testing" that you are referring to? nt

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #24)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:19 PM

25. Are you disputing that not testing people with no/mild symptoms is standard around the world?

I don't really understand why you're specifically asking me for a list of states that are testing better than california, as prior to a couple days ago, it was most of them. I know the top 3 states in testing ny, washington, and louisiana all have drive through testing.

Again, the point of mentioning drive through testing was to contrast it with the UK's National Health Service, which is highly respected, and their decision to test only severely ill patients in the hospital. So the United States of America is testing people with a greater range of symptom severity than the UK's NHS.

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Response to mathematic (Reply #25)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:50 PM

27. I'm disputing Birx's asserting that we're testing the population.

The only reason "highly respected" UK NHS is only testing severely ill patients is, like us, that is all they have the resources to test. Their dipshit leader (who now has tested positive) did not take the necessary early action, and now they are behind the ball, like us.

There is limited drive through testing in CA too, but only for certain people. The average Californian, as well as the average New Yorker and Washingtonian, can't get tested unless they are seriously ill. Same with Louisiana, where stories like this still predominate:

Houma restaurant owner recovering from corona virus says husband can't get a test
https://www.wwltv.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/testing-still-unavailable-for-some/289-5aaa7e3f-d0a8-4c3e-9af2-61ba9bd8a7a6

I don't know what criteria you use to determine a state is a "leader" or "bad" at testing. All of the states are forced to ration testing because they just don't have the test kits, personnel and PPEs needed. And it's Trump's fault. He should have accepted the WHO test that was made available on January 17 and run with it. Our first confirmed case was January 20. Time was of the essence, as any epidemiologist could have told him. But the idiot xenophobe insisted it be an FDA test. Then the FDA, run by that Trump supplicant and Bork lookalike Robert Redfield, made matters even worse by totally botching the roll out with defective tests, delaying test deliveries for weeks, as the virus spread. The promised 1.5 million tests still haven't arrived to the states.

Compare that to H1N1, where the Obama administration pushed out 1 million test kits within 30 days of the first confirmed US case.

You can't blame this on states being bad at testing or not "leading" on testing. The states are victims of Trump administration malignant negligence.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:40 PM

26. Neither her or Trump will be able to lie about the number of people dying. nt

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Response to Blue_true (Reply #26)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:55 PM

28. Unfortunately that's not even true

Many hospitals are overwhelmed. They aren't testing the dead, or the severe cases coming in that are near death. Who know how big that number really is.

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Response to Iwasthere (Reply #28)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:59 PM

29. Families will wonder about exactly what killed their loved one,

more so if there is no autopsy or lab test done. When the number of people dying goes well past what is normal, people will blame COVID-19, that is, in my limited experience, how people think about out of the norm events.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Fri Mar 27, 2020, 10:20 PM

30. why? come on. She has no soul.

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