HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » so much for cases declini...

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 02:26 PM

so much for cases declining in Italy.

a few days ago there were speculations that the Italians had started turning around with the number of deaths per day declining. That trend did not last. It's increasing again. Poor Italy has now over 10,000 deaths.

"We expect to see the first effects of the stringent lockdown measures adopted on March 11 after 2-3 weeks, so the coming week will be absolutely crucial in this sense: we expect to finally see a sign of trend reversal," said Franco Locatelli, President of the Health Council


At first, people thought that had been the case since deaths started a downwards trend from the 20th til the 23rd. Alas, it has since reversed the trend and its climbing back up.

This is the kind of thing that is going to happen here if we relax the stay in place restrictions too soon.

11 replies, 1137 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread

Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 02:28 PM

1. Tragic ans scaty

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 02:38 PM

2. I know, d, it was looking as if they were going to have a minute to process and deal with their

national tragedy, so it was soooo demoralizing to see their fatalities went back up...

poor Italy

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 02:46 PM

3. Yes, it's horrible and scary. They've been on lockdown for almost three weeks.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 02:48 PM

4. .

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 02:50 PM

5. K&R, Hunkering down with sick people is going to produce more sick people. They're not mass testing

... and isolating on a national scale they're winger government is doing the same thing Red Don's crew is doing

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to uponit7771 (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 03:50 PM

6. Remember the alternative to hunkering down.

You test positive, you're removed, by force if necessary, to a detention center. Call it a hospital, it's really minimum palliative care + quarantine.

If you're suspected, but no test result yet, you're removed, by force if necessary to a detention center.

And you might be suspected at any time, because if you step outside, your temperature's taken. Or if you want to go back inside. You're quarantined.

Makes a totalitarian regime look cute and cuddly.

Yeah, hunkering down at home increases the risk at home. But telling everybody to stay separate is pretty much impossible, and even in China the main test was a thermometer. And strict social distancing--not "essential jobs" are okay, and somebody could go out what was it, one person per home once every 2 days?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 03:56 PM

7. Dunno what's going on.

Data aren't granular enough.

Take the US. Right now the NYS area is driving all the US stats. NY by itself is more than 1/3 the US deaths, and almost all of that is NYS and the 'burbs; toss in adjacent areas in other states, and it's more like 1/2 the US toll is that one area.

When that area has a declining death rate, that'll be a good thing. And it's likely to happen there first since it's furthest along the curve. But there are a lot of areas trailing, and by the time NY's rate's declining those are likely to be ramping up significantly.

Result: Tapering off in one area (good thing) but overall average still increasing. Wait! how can thing be improving if they're getting worse everywhere? But they're not getting worse everywhere--the average hides the truth.

Time it right and a downturn in the NY area could start to show up and then get wiped out in the upsurge from other places.

I don't know how to characterize Italy. Is it all the same area with the increase? Tapering off or declining on the old hotspot but increasing elsewhere?

No, pretty much nothing is as simple as the media present it in 140-character chunks.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 04:03 PM

8. The death toll in the U.S. could be 5 times 911, because of GOP and trump.

Interesting article, with charts and graphs, posted earlier by applegrove:

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 04:13 PM

9. The rate of increase in new cases has decined - pretty much stopped.

Go to worldometers and check the logarithmic scale for new cases. If it is curving downward the rate if increase is slowing.

A decline in the rate of new deaths would lag the decline in new cases by roughly 2 weeks.

So it looks to me like it's working.

By the time you reach Italy's growth rate, it is like trying to turn a massive oceanliner with a small tugboat. The early changes are going to be very small - barely noticeable. But looking at the data I see, the trend is in the right direction and (unfortunately) about the speed I would have expected.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to drray23 (Original post)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 04:47 PM

10. I remember hearing a number of new cases are coming from Southern Italy

That's gonna be a problem.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Rstrstx (Reply #10)

Sat Mar 28, 2020, 04:53 PM

11. Indeed. Southern Italy is poor.

If lombardy got overwhelmed, it's going to be even worse in the south.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread