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For the record - Statistics grow more grim. (Original Post) calimary Mar 2020 OP
More people have now died here from Covid19 than on 9/11. lark Mar 2020 #1
Well, yes. Igel Mar 2020 #15
I suspect it wont have a real, 'street-level' political impact until it kills more peeps.. Volaris Apr 2020 #23
A physician on Morning joe this morning said multiply that 165,000 confirmed case Submariner Mar 2020 #2
A retired nurse friend and I have been thinking this for several weeks. BSdetect Mar 2020 #8
I've been multiplying x20 HarlanPepper Mar 2020 #11
That's smart BGBD Apr 2020 #25
So sad. I've been thinking about the people who have died who may not have been identified Ninga Mar 2020 #3
A friend that is my age (over 55) Horse with no Name Mar 2020 #4
Tons, I've been tracking them on Twitter for the past couple dewsgirl Mar 2020 #5
My 76 year old friend had a really bad respiratory sickness for 3-4 weeks in late Dec. - early Jan. lark Apr 2020 #29
Can a person have both C-19 and the flu at the same time? defacto7 Mar 2020 #6
I would further assume that COVID-19 is also not going to be recorded medically the same as Volaris Apr 2020 #24
Congratulations, Donnie world wide wally Mar 2020 #7
Update: calimary Mar 2020 #9
For the record - just for consistency's sake calimary Mar 2020 #10
Watching hour by hour probably doesn't help muriel_volestrangler Mar 2020 #13
+1. yonder Apr 2020 #28
I hope it ends soon GeorgiaPeanut Mar 2020 #12
Tragically on track with this site: pat_k Mar 2020 #14
I think they're all indicating the same statistical upward swings. calimary Mar 2020 #19
Another update calimary Mar 2020 #16
And another update - and the update almost immediately had to be updated. Sheesh. calimary Mar 2020 #17
And yet ANOTHER update... calimary Mar 2020 #18
Btw - We did pass the 9/11 death toll awhile ago, too. calimary Mar 2020 #20
Might be the last update of the night. calimary Apr 2020 #21
Thank You for the updates and all numbers...Yes..Worse than 9/11..and will get worse. Stuart G Apr 2020 #22
Ambulance just roared up! Olafjoy Apr 2020 #26
Oh man...Holy s#*t is right! calimary Apr 2020 #27
Everyone I know is making spread sheets Johnny2X2X Apr 2020 #30

lark

(23,091 posts)
1. More people have now died here from Covid19 than on 9/11.
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 10:51 AM
Mar 2020

We have met the normal flu deaths for the year and it's only March. These numbers are going to continue to rise for weeks to come because the incompetent asshole is killing us for fun (change the country into an oligarchy is a long rw dream) and personal profit.

Igel

(35,300 posts)
15. Well, yes.
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 03:07 PM
Mar 2020

Except one was intentional done out of spite, taking aim at an identity.

More people die in crashes on Texas highways every year than die on 9/11.

Ascribing agency to the attackers is fairly easy since they had some pretty clear motives and took actions that directly lead to the deaths. The other, not so much. Most of the "agency" in the case of COVID is both ascribed based on assumptions that we make and depends on ignoring everything outside our bubble. It's little different from the blaming of Chinese immigrants in the San Francisco plague in the early 1900s--"we" hated people, there's some connection to be found between "them" and bad things (ignoring everything else), there's fear, and so there's obvious blame and intent. Think of it as a human thing; and if you know it's a human proclivity and not just something "those people" do, and identify as human (not all of us do), it's on the checklist of things to consider looking for in one's own behavior.

This can be more or less extreme. Look at the folk who so disliked Bush II that they insisted LIHOP. Or, worse, accused Bush II &c of a cover up and going through the WTC buildings, drilling holes and planting explosives. Or thermite. Some go to extremes, some just fail to notice. Many are in the middle, as in any reasonably Gaussian distribution.


As for the annual Great Texas Road Kill, I await the national day of remembrance, the memorial, and the curbing of traffic until we're sure there's no more risk. Or the assumption that those doing the killing are especially out to kill. Because otherwise it's worse than 9/11 (yawn), like many other things that we don't give much of a hoot about.


Notice that we also haven't met the annual flu deaths yet. Not by a wide, wide margin. https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year is as good as any; early results for the first few months had it at at least 12k.

The official toll of the 2019-2020 influenza season won't be known for months—not that anyone is really fretting about that right now. Worries over the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, have eclipsed many people's concerns about coming down with a case of the flu.

Not that you ought to take influenza lightly. Flu season in the US, which runs from October through May, claims tens of thousands of lives every year. This season CDC estimates that, as of mid-March, between 29,000 and 59,000 have died due to influenza illnesses. Add to that the misery of hundreds of thousands of flu-related hospitalizations and millions of medical visits for flu symptoms this season.


So 29k to 59k. Currently worldometer has deaths in the US at 3,573. We're at 1/8 of flu season. At best.

Volaris

(10,270 posts)
23. I suspect it wont have a real, 'street-level' political impact until it kills more peeps..
Wed Apr 1, 2020, 12:18 AM
Apr 2020

Than the Iraq war. But WHEN it does, it will result in trump going to prison and the republican party (in it's current iteration..FINALLY) being reduced to a regional party of the old confederacy.

At least, that's my hope. I wish that my fellow citizens, regardless of political affiliation, wouldn't have to die in order to manifest this.

I'm sad that I wont get my wish.

Submariner

(12,503 posts)
2. A physician on Morning joe this morning said multiply that 165,000 confirmed case
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 10:52 AM
Mar 2020

number by at least 10

BSdetect

(8,998 posts)
8. A retired nurse friend and I have been thinking this for several weeks.
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 11:13 AM
Mar 2020

The idiots who do not take shelter in place seriously are a threat to everyone else.

And we have two neighbors taking risks with gatherings.




 

BGBD

(3,282 posts)
25. That's smart
Wed Apr 1, 2020, 12:57 AM
Apr 2020

I've heard even higher factors tossed around as the potential range by some people who know what they are talking about.

I think this virus is a lot more prevalent than the official numbers. There are probably a couple million infections across the country that haven't been tested, aren't presenting for care, or don't even realize they are sick. I think the fatality rate of infection is much, much lower than we are seeing as well. I think it's going to end up closer to seasonal flu, .1 or .2%, but unlike seasonal flu there is 0 immunity. The virus is just running wild because it has nothing to stop it.

That means the high numbers, like 2 million deaths isn't possible, but something on the order of 300-600k would be in line with worse case, or potentially some higher given the odds of overloading healthcare facilities. From looking at ILI data, I think this thing started spreading around the 3rd or 4th week of the year, but flu was getting the blame. This years predominant flu strains were B-Victoria and H1N1, but it was a pretty bad year, which isn't typical for those two strains to cause. Usually the H3N2 years are the hardest seasonal flu's like back in 2017-2018. I think the driver of that was COVID-19.

Now it has had time to build up and we are seeing hospital overrun, not because we have 75k cases in NY, but because we have 2 million cases in NY.

Ninga

(8,275 posts)
3. So sad. I've been thinking about the people who have died who may not have been identified
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 10:53 AM
Mar 2020

as having the virus.

Horse with no Name

(33,956 posts)
4. A friend that is my age (over 55)
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 10:58 AM
Mar 2020

Died in December unexpectedly from a rapidly progressing severe pneumonia that put her on a ventilator.
She had no comorbidities and was previously healthy and fit.
I wonder how many Laurie’s are out there.

dewsgirl

(14,961 posts)
5. Tons, I've been tracking them on Twitter for the past couple
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 11:03 AM
Mar 2020

months. There is a Twitter feed, @k_wuttt in her pinned tweet she documented several back in mid February.

lark

(23,091 posts)
29. My 76 year old friend had a really bad respiratory sickness for 3-4 weeks in late Dec. - early Jan.
Wed Apr 1, 2020, 08:29 AM
Apr 2020

She had the same symptoms, extreme tiredness and body aches, coughing & tightness in her chest. She's a very healthy person so this was very strange and it took her forever to get all the way back. How many people had this but it was hidden on purpose by drumpf.

defacto7

(13,485 posts)
6. Can a person have both C-19 and the flu at the same time?
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 11:03 AM
Mar 2020

They are completely different viruses so I suspect you can. Has anyone read if this happens?

Volaris

(10,270 posts)
24. I would further assume that COVID-19 is also not going to be recorded medically the same as
Wed Apr 1, 2020, 12:23 AM
Apr 2020

regular ol' viral pneumonia, despite trump admin arguing otherwise for the sake of political appearances...

calimary

(81,220 posts)
9. Update:
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:32 PM
Mar 2020

7:37am (all times Pacific)
Confirmed cases - 165,075
Deaths - 3,038.

10:06am
Confirmed cases - 173,466 - Look at that! Cases went up by approximately EIGHT THOUSAND, in roughly three hours. .
Deaths - 3,370

10:10am (just four minutes later)
Confirmed cases - 174,251
Deaths - 3,376

SHEESH - just as I'm writing this - watching the confirmed case numbers ticking upward.
10:11am
Confirmed cases - 174,265
Deaths - 3376

What a difference a few minutes makes:
10:29am
Confirmed cases - 174,278
Deaths - 3376 - well, that's good news. The death toll nationally hasn't risen. Yet, anyway.

Jeez-Louise...




calimary

(81,220 posts)
10. For the record - just for consistency's sake
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:44 PM
Mar 2020

I am using the statistics being noted at MSNBC.

We're mainly watching that network, switching back and forth with CNN. But I haven't been able to track CNN's numbers as closely. So I guess the MSNBC numbers are the "control numbers" - at least for this NON-pro, completely civilian and unofficial. But I think it probably serves the general situation. At least it gives us a picture of the rising numbers and the extent of the spread of the virus and its rising casualties.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,306 posts)
13. Watching hour by hour probably doesn't help
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 02:05 PM
Mar 2020

It'll get affected by the reporting mechanisms, local time of day, occasional delays, and so on. Picking a fixed time of day to check might be better; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries starts its 'today' figures at 0000 GMT (ie 5pm Pacific Daylight Time), so if you look at 'yesterday' you get a stable figure for everywhere that you can reasonably compare with previous days, and 'today' gives you a by-the-minute change since then.

 

GeorgiaPeanut

(360 posts)
12. I hope it ends soon
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:56 PM
Mar 2020

I wish we had a real president like Obama who would have consulted with the right people and listened to them.

calimary

(81,220 posts)
19. I think they're all indicating the same statistical upward swings.
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 05:08 PM
Mar 2020

The same kinds of graphs, all indicating the same kinds of numbers, and rates of increase.

calimary

(81,220 posts)
16. Another update
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 03:08 PM
Mar 2020

7:37am (all times Pacific)
Confirmed cases - 165,075
Deaths - 3,038.

10:06am
Confirmed cases - 173,466 - Look at that! Cases went up by approximately EIGHT THOUSAND, in roughly three hours. .
Deaths - 3,370

10:10am (just four minutes later)
Confirmed cases - 174,251
Deaths - 3,376

SHEESH - just as I'm writing this - watching the confirmed case numbers ticking upward.
10:11am
Confirmed cases - 174,265
Deaths - 3376

What a difference a few minutes makes:
10:29am
Confirmed cases - 174,278
Deaths - 3376 - well, that's good news. The death toll nationally hasn't risen. Yet, anyway.

12:04pm
Confirmed cases - 179,446 - SHEESH - rose more than FIVE HUNDRED in an hour-and-a-half!
Deaths - 3,539 - 163 more just in that same hour-and-a-half.


calimary

(81,220 posts)
17. And another update - and the update almost immediately had to be updated. Sheesh.
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 04:09 PM
Mar 2020

7:37am (all times Pacific)
Confirmed cases - 165,075
Deaths - 3,038.

10:06am
Confirmed cases - 173,466 - Look at that! Cases went up by approximately EIGHT THOUSAND, in roughly three hours. .
Deaths - 3,370

10:10am (just four minutes later)
Confirmed cases - 174,251
Deaths - 3,376

SHEESH - just as I'm writing this - watching the confirmed case numbers ticking upward.
10:11am
Confirmed cases - 174,265
Deaths - 3376

What a difference a few minutes makes:
10:29am
Confirmed cases - 174,278
Deaths - 3376 - well, that's good news. The death toll nationally hasn't risen. Yet, anyway.

12:04pm
Confirmed cases - 179,446 - SHEESH - rose more than FIVE HUNDRED in an hour-and-a-half!
Deaths - 3,539 - 163 more just in that same hour-and-a-half.

1:08pm
Confirmed cases - 179,792
Deaths - 3,559

AW SHIT - just jumped again...

1:13pm
Confirmed cases - 180,909
Deaths - 3,634

calimary

(81,220 posts)
18. And yet ANOTHER update...
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 05:06 PM
Mar 2020

7:37am (all times Pacific)
Confirmed cases - 165,075
Deaths - 3,038.

10:06am
Confirmed cases - 173,466 - Look at that! Cases went up by approximately EIGHT THOUSAND, in roughly three hours. .
Deaths - 3,370

10:10am (just four minutes later)
Confirmed cases - 174,251
Deaths - 3,376

SHEESH - just as I'm writing this - watching the confirmed case numbers ticking upward.
10:11am
Confirmed cases - 174,265
Deaths - 3376

What a difference a few minutes makes:
10:29am
Confirmed cases - 174,278
Deaths - 3376 - well, that's good news. The death toll nationally hasn't risen. Yet, anyway.

12:04pm
Confirmed cases - 179,446 - SHEESH - rose more than FIVE HUNDRED in an hour-and-a-half!
Deaths - 3,539 - 163 more just in that same hour-and-a-half.

1:08pm
Confirmed cases - 179,792
Deaths - 3,559

AW SHIT - just jumped again...

1:13pm
Confirmed cases - 180,909
Deaths - 3,634

2:03pm
Confirmed cases - 184,057
Deaths - 3,717

calimary

(81,220 posts)
20. Btw - We did pass the 9/11 death toll awhile ago, too.
Tue Mar 31, 2020, 05:11 PM
Mar 2020

If anybody's wondering:

September 11 Terror Attacks Fast Facts
CNN Editorial Research
Updated 12:26 PM ET, Wed November 13, 2019
Facts
Nineteen men hijacked four fuel-loaded US commercial airplanes bound for west coast destinations. A total of 2,977 people were killed in New York City, Washington, DC and outside of Shanksville, Pennsylvania.
https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/27/us/september-11-anniversary-fast-facts/index.html

calimary

(81,220 posts)
21. Might be the last update of the night.
Wed Apr 1, 2020, 12:03 AM
Apr 2020

7:37am (all times Pacific)
Confirmed cases - 165,075
Deaths - 3,038.

10:06am
Confirmed cases - 173,466 - Look at that! Cases went up by approximately EIGHT THOUSAND, in roughly three hours.
Deaths - 3,370

10:10am (just four minutes later)
Confirmed cases - 174,251
Deaths - 3,376

SHEESH - just as I'm writing this - watching the confirmed case numbers ticking upward.
10:11am
Confirmed cases - 174,265
Deaths - 3376

What a difference a few minutes makes:
10:29am
Confirmed cases - 174,278
Deaths - 3376 - well, that's good news. The death toll nationally hasn't risen. Yet, anyway.

12:04pm
Confirmed cases - 179,446 - SHEESH - rose more than FIVE HUNDRED in an hour-and-a-half!
Deaths - 3,539 - 163 more just in that same hour-and-a-half.

1:08pm
Confirmed cases - 179,792
Deaths - 3,559

AW SHIT - just jumped again...

1:13pm
Confirmed cases - 180,909
Deaths - 3,634

2:03pm
Confirmed cases - 184,057
Deaths - 3,717

6:30pm
Confirmed cases - 186,287 -- went up by more than 20-thousand just today.
Deaths - 3815 -- went up more than 800 just today.

Man...

Johnny2X2X

(19,038 posts)
30. Everyone I know is making spread sheets
Wed Apr 1, 2020, 08:39 AM
Apr 2020

I'm an engineer, we like data, so people are sending me spread sheets with some formulas plugged in to track things. I keep pushing back on them with a couple consistent points:

1. We are getting numbers that track the spread of Covid-19, we aren't getting numbers that track the positive tests, we're getting numbers that are tracking the reporting of the positive tests.

2. In order to track the spread of the virus through testing you'd need all the tests available to test anyone with symptoms and all of the states would need to have the same criteria and the same processing time. We have a different situation in regards to testing in every state. Different criteria, different test availability, different reporting rhythms, and different processing time. Some states have backlogs of tens of thousands of tests that are waiting to be processed.

3. So I suppose tracking deaths is more accurate, but even those are full of reporting inconsistencies. I have no idea that many have died from Covid-19 that were never tested pre or post death.

There's a reason why these outbreaks aren't fully understood until they're in the past. Statisticians and scientists will study this and come up with estimates for deaths and cases at some point in the future, and that's the best we'll ever do. People have to realize that when H1N1 happened, the 12,000 estimated deaths were just an estimate, we didn't have 12,000 people who tested positive for it die. We used stats afterwards to come up with the number of infected and dead.

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