Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Demovictory9

(33,668 posts)
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 07:32 PM Apr 2020

is the "normal" economy coming back?

what do you think? Has the economy changed permanently? in one year from now, will be be living life as we did in February 2020?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-normal-economy-is-never-coming-back/


20 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
yes, it will eventually return to normal
5 (25%)
it will almost return to normal
2 (10%)
no, it won't return to normal - tell us how you think it will be different
13 (65%)
Other
0 (0%)
Show usernames
Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll
42 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
is the "normal" economy coming back? (Original Post) Demovictory9 Apr 2020 OP
Other. Not in a year. Cruise lines, travel, theme parks, spectator sports and concerts are going to rzemanfl Apr 2020 #1
things not returning to normal in these areas will hit states differently. Florida will be hit hard Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #6
With Bodies in Refrigerator Trailers, mass graves and no vaccine Under The Radar Apr 2020 #2
live entertainment is going to have to find about the go online Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #7
On the whole, economic activity and consumer demand will return to pre-C19 levels, but sop Apr 2020 #3
that's sad Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #11
We'll have an economy 2naSalit Apr 2020 #4
+1000 gldstwmn Apr 2020 #12
In a year, probably. Igel Apr 2020 #5
only if American is no longer a corporatocracy. I seriously doubt that will happen Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #10
No. We'll be in a deep depression for years and may never return to our old normal. hedda_foil Apr 2020 #8
I hope not Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #15
no going back to business as usual. online commerce will bury retail peacebuzzard Apr 2020 #9
fancy sit down restaurants will struggle no doubt. airlines are planning on blocking middle seat Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #16
I think social distancing will take off to new levels peacebuzzard Apr 2020 #20
Airlines will not be getting away with such cruel close seating ever again. nt crickets Apr 2020 #22
agreed. they are already blocking the middle seat Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #33
I think one change will be more people working from home TexasBushwhacker Apr 2020 #13
my job's IT department got everyone connected / lap tops distributed... so we are experiencing Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #14
While I Think You're Right... ProfessorGAC Apr 2020 #19
I agree - many more companes will find they like the WFH option Totally Tunsie Apr 2020 #30
It could really be a boon for small towns TexasBushwhacker Apr 2020 #32
Very true. I wonder if we'll see a spread in the population since we Totally Tunsie Apr 2020 #35
I hate to throw water on your parade Dan Apr 2020 #31
Not until after the vaccine. We may end up with it 70% back by fall Quixote1818 Apr 2020 #17
Conferences... I was scheduled to attend a conference in May. all company travel is suspended Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #18
It will not return to normal for a very long time. smirkymonkey Apr 2020 #21
The articles I've read about vaccines suggest that the virus is not mutating quickly. Initech Apr 2020 #27
However, that will take at least a year at best. I would hope that we could end this once and for smirkymonkey Apr 2020 #28
I already see places shut down...they couldn't survive...the pugs failed to help small business... Demsrule86 Apr 2020 #23
permanently shut down? Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #24
It just shows how little resilience we have built into our system TexasBushwhacker Apr 2020 #25
We will need a very good antiviral drug to treat this. We will also need a vaccine. OrlandoDem2 Apr 2020 #26
If we take any lessons from this about our reliance on each other and... pat_k Apr 2020 #29
The new "normal" will be much more confined. Thunderbeast Apr 2020 #34
Many people will have their credit ruined. Runningdawg Apr 2020 #36
minor correction.. you can rent a hotel room or car with a debit card.. only diff is they grab Demovictory9 Apr 2020 #37
Very different economy coming kurtcagle Apr 2020 #38
People are going to be gunshy, how can you trust its moved away w/o testing. Historic NY Apr 2020 #39
Because of trump and the gop policies duforsure Apr 2020 #40
IF there is a universally effective vaccine with no side effects DFW Apr 2020 #41
Inflation on those things you need to survive exboyfil Apr 2020 #42

rzemanfl

(30,274 posts)
1. Other. Not in a year. Cruise lines, travel, theme parks, spectator sports and concerts are going to
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 07:47 PM
Apr 2020

take big hits. Movie theaters, fitness centers and restaurants a little less. Malls may be a thing of the past. Colleges and the "hookup culture" will change a lot. Parents will be reluctant to spend $50K a year on schools that might close in the middle of the year and send their kids home. Big weddings will be slow to come back. Nothing will be the same unless and until there is a vaccine, everyone gets it and some time goes by.

Demovictory9

(33,668 posts)
6. things not returning to normal in these areas will hit states differently. Florida will be hit hard
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:09 PM
Apr 2020

with those huge theme park areas and cruise ship ports. California has disneyland but it's not near as dominate a force.

the change to higher education will be interesting to see... maybe online becomes preferred...

Under The Radar

(3,418 posts)
2. With Bodies in Refrigerator Trailers, mass graves and no vaccine
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 07:50 PM
Apr 2020

How many people do you think will show up to a Yankees game, Broadway play, concert, movie or Disney world? Basically the entire live entertainment industry is likely dead until a vaccine is found.

sop

(11,094 posts)
3. On the whole, economic activity and consumer demand will return to pre-C19 levels, but
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 07:50 PM
Apr 2020

many of the small, independent "mom and pop" businesses will not survive, and will be supplanted by their larger, probably corporate-owned counterparts.

2naSalit

(92,395 posts)
4. We'll have an economy
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 07:53 PM
Apr 2020

but it won't look much like the one we have now, I hope.

If we are going to make a transition to a more sustainable existence, we would do well to let a lot of the shit from our current system die and start a bunch of new economic programs that are more inclusive and equitable while also moving decisively toward healing the biosphere. Anything else will be a return trip to where we are now, if we survive the ecological backlash.

ETA: We could get rid of major corporations and start a new paradigm in living with a new form of currency that will be less susceptible to uberwealth.

Igel

(36,027 posts)
5. In a year, probably.
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 07:53 PM
Apr 2020

Something close. Some small changes.

If people allow it. I keep hearing things around the edges--if the government can seize control to save lives during a COVID-19 epidemic and make things better, why not for __________? (Insert Big Important Goal of your choice--economic equality, racial equality, climate change, healthcare ...)

Demovictory9

(33,668 posts)
10. only if American is no longer a corporatocracy. I seriously doubt that will happen
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:12 PM
Apr 2020

right now, their in a back room, figuring out how to benefit

peacebuzzard

(5,261 posts)
9. no going back to business as usual. online commerce will bury retail
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:12 PM
Apr 2020

package centers and cargo/mail transport will be the bulk of the transportation industry.
travel and vacations will sink.
social gatherings will decrease, commercial business, groceries, restaurants will be operating more drive-ins.
no superstores, mega-malls or large aircraft. small and sleek will be the normal.

peacebuzzard

(5,261 posts)
20. I think social distancing will take off to new levels
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:53 PM
Apr 2020

no handshakes, hugs and social kiss kiss gone. customer service will be with gloves and everything packaged.
airlines will be removing and rearranging seat configurations and jacking up prices.
traffic rush hour will not exist since 9-5 will be virtual.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,646 posts)
13. I think one change will be more people working from home
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:17 PM
Apr 2020

Once they've proven that they can be just as productive working from home (if not more), wouldn't be great if more employers allowed telecommuting? Less traffic, less air pollution.

If unemployment gets and stays really high for more than a few months, we're going to see more extended families living together and more intentional co-living arrangements.

One more thing; now that millions of parents are experiencing the joys of home schooling, I hope we hear less bitching about teacher's salaries.

Demovictory9

(33,668 posts)
14. my job's IT department got everyone connected / lap tops distributed... so we are experiencing
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:23 PM
Apr 2020

what is possible. I wonder if rank and file will be allowed to work home at least one or two days per week when this is over.

ProfessorGAC

(69,685 posts)
19. While I Think You're Right...
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:46 PM
Apr 2020

...that's a change in business practice, not an economic change.
I answered it will eventually return to normal, perhaps BECAUSE OF the changes in practices you describe.

Totally Tunsie

(10,885 posts)
30. I agree - many more companes will find they like the WFH option
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 11:42 PM
Apr 2020

for their employees. Not only is it a boon for the employees, the businesses may well find they don't need the large, lavish HQs with multiple offices and conference spaces. I can picture a scenario where a core executive level could operate from a central location, with all supporting services off-site in WFH. It could be a win-win experience.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,646 posts)
32. It could really be a boon for small towns
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 11:55 PM
Apr 2020

Just because you're doing IT for a megacorp shouldn't mean you need to live in a big city with a high cost of living.

Totally Tunsie

(10,885 posts)
35. Very true. I wonder if we'll see a spread in the population since we
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 12:03 AM
Apr 2020

won't need to locate for jobs. We can live where we'd like, not where we need to be.

Dan

(4,036 posts)
31. I hate to throw water on your parade
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 11:54 PM
Apr 2020

But while I do believe that a lot of companies will have found benefits from their employees working at home, along with the reduced expenses associated with maintaining office space. Plus, in some cases the company might discover that the employees are more productive and willing to work more hours over a twenty-four period. I also think this...

From the Corporate standpoint, why not go all in - and eliminate employees and just have independent contractors, aside from just the few staff that are absolutely essential.

One step further, they might not have to provide additional pay or benefits with this option.

This is what I think will happen. It is logical.

Quixote1818

(30,322 posts)
17. Not until after the vaccine. We may end up with it 70% back by fall
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:30 PM
Apr 2020

but I don't think you will see things like big sporting events, conferences etc.

Demovictory9

(33,668 posts)
18. Conferences... I was scheduled to attend a conference in May. all company travel is suspended
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 08:33 PM
Apr 2020

indefinitely. say "shelter in place" ends after May. it will be months before organizations even consider scheduling a big conference.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
21. It will not return to normal for a very long time.
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 09:02 PM
Apr 2020

People will still be very afraid and wary of resuming their former lifestyles until there is a vaccine. And we have no idea how much this virus can mutate, like the flu. There might need to be a new vaccine every year and even that might not be completely effective.

Also, the transfer of wealth from the middle class to the very wealthy is setting in like cement and that is going to show up as a more sluggish economy as well. The very rich can only consume so much, but when a majority of the purchasers in this country are having to tighten their belts, the effects will ripple throughout the entire economy. Corporate revenues and profits will decline, more people will lose their jobs, and so on.

Initech

(101,716 posts)
27. The articles I've read about vaccines suggest that the virus is not mutating quickly.
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 11:31 PM
Apr 2020

And that the few variations that are out there aren't all that different in sequences. So if we can squash this thing with a vaccine, we could squash it for good.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
28. However, that will take at least a year at best. I would hope that we could end this once and for
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 11:41 PM
Apr 2020

all with a vaccine, but the economy is not going to snap back to normal immediately like Trump thinks it is. People will ease back in slowly until they know that the rates of illness are really subsiding on a meaningful level. There will still be a lot of fear even after the lock is lifted.

Demsrule86

(70,981 posts)
23. I already see places shut down...they couldn't survive...the pugs failed to help small business...
Fri Apr 10, 2020, 09:29 PM
Apr 2020

so many jobs will be lost and who can buy cars now? So manufacturing takes a hit.

TexasBushwhacker

(20,646 posts)
25. It just shows how little resilience we have built into our system
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 11:12 PM
Apr 2020

They talk about people having 6 to 12 months of living expenses in savings, and how most people don't, but how many businesses do? All the push for profits and SHAREHOLDER value has made businesses forget to have a rainy day fund. Of course, like Trump, they can always lay people off and file for bankruptcy.

OrlandoDem2

(2,259 posts)
26. We will need a very good antiviral drug to treat this. We will also need a vaccine.
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 11:23 PM
Apr 2020

The vaccine may need to be administered each year like the flu vaccine.

That said, there will be structural changes.

pat_k

(10,814 posts)
29. If we take any lessons from this about our reliance on each other and...
Sun Apr 12, 2020, 11:42 PM
Apr 2020

... the massive disparity between those who are able to "ride this out" and those who are destroyed by it, we could see some fundamental change. Like the wealthy recognizing they must invest in building a stronger economy for everyone in the form of a wealth tax.

I know. Fat chance. But one can hope.

Thunderbeast

(3,528 posts)
34. The new "normal" will be much more confined.
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 12:02 AM
Apr 2020

The arts will suffer. Sporting events will be TV only for some time. Travel will be hindered.

We will see more telecommuting, online shopping, and virtual non-contact relationships.

Normal can not be attained until a reliable, safe vaccine is available....outside of the corporate pharma structure. The rich will die too if the poor are vectors for the virus.

I remember lining up at the fire station to get the Sabin vaccine (sugar cube) to protect against polio. Hundreds lined up on a Sunday afternoon.

I hope our technology can accelerate the process to get a safe vaccine to the masses. I also hope that the consequences for those who refuse to take it (without a valid health concern) are severe.

If someone's convictions tell them that they have a right to crap in the water supply, society would not tolerate their actions. Someone refusing to cooperate in protecting the masses through vaccination deserves severe sanction.

Runningdawg

(4,590 posts)
36. Many people will have their credit ruined.
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 12:25 AM
Apr 2020

Without a good credit score you can't get: a job, a phone, internet service, a bank account or loan and without a credit card you can't rent a hotel room, apartment, car or campsite.

Demovictory9

(33,668 posts)
37. minor correction.. you can rent a hotel room or car with a debit card.. only diff is they grab
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 12:31 AM
Apr 2020

the deposit out of your account to hold until rental period ends.

kurtcagle

(2,293 posts)
38. Very different economy coming
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 12:38 AM
Apr 2020

1. Cars are going electric, and will start to disappear. Auto manufacturers are already seeing a massive glut, and will reduce production primarily to electric vehicles. I expect internal combustion engine based cars and trucks will end up sitting for a year or more before they are scrapped for parts, while electric vehicles will move but will start dropping dramatically in price. The virus may have pushed the transition to all electric forward by 10-15 years.

2. Home working will become the norm for about 45-50% of the population, and there will be less justification than ever for the building of large corporate offices. The link between pollution and the potential for pandemics will be verifiably established, meaning that there's kind of an upper limit of polllution that we can produce before the air becomes quite literally toxic. Expect ownership of cars to drop dramatically as they exist primarily for commuting, and ride share and similar services to start making up the difference. This in turn is going to reduce the significance of the Middle East as oil demand continues to dry up. I expect that there's going to be a growth industry in conversions, taking cheap ICE cars and retrofitting them with new electric batteries and drive trains, with much of that facilitated by a growth in 3D printed components.

3. Supply chains are going to be dramatically shortened. Countries that have been outsourcing production of goods or processing of food will start pulling those particular operations back to their country of origin. 3D printing will likely significant reduce the overall need for "spare parts", and within the next 2-3 years, will likely cut current manufacturing (pre-Covid) by 50% or more. More jobs in 3D printing, fewer jobs overall and likely the elimination of the traditional factory.

4. Supply side economics is dead as a philosophy, as is mass production based capitalism. We are reverting to the mean. I am not sure we will end up seeing DJIA 30K in my lifetime. Keynes will likely be rehabilitated, Milton Friedman buried.

5. In the next eighteen months, wages are going to be falling across the board, though mainly at the upper level. IT technology is largely deflationary at this point, and for the next few years, its going to be hard to get people excited about tech.

6. Thrift will become a necessity again. We were already heading in this direction, now its going to accelerate. I don't believe that the massive job losses that have occurred this month were due to the Coronavirus, but were in fact already beginning to happen. The Coronavirus simply gave a lot of companies that were marginal the pretext to close up shop without massive liabilities. Conspicuous consumption is going to be seen not as a sign of desirable wealth but as a target for hatred. There's also likely to be a growing distrust of the stock market as being too manipulated, and as a consequence, once we finally do hit bottom, the recovery may be a long U or even an L.

7. Areas of growth - education is going to end up having to refactor for a larger work from home workforce, expect to see some kind of job-works package from a Biden administration, and I think that he will have much more leeway to do significant things with healthcare than Obama was able to manage.

8. Republicans are dead. They have lived by Trump, they will die by Trump. Scientists, teachers, researchers, doctors, statisticians, and so forth will find that they have more clout, while the no-nothings, who have been trumpeting their own ignorance, will discover that people are no longer listening to them, and are treating them increasingly with contempt.

9. I think there is roughly a 30% chance that the United States could end up splitting apart into three distinct countries within the next three years, mostly predicated upon Trump winning a second term "miraculously" or losing but having it overturned by the Supreme Court. It's still unlikely, but at a high enough possibility to be taken seriously.

Historic NY

(37,801 posts)
39. People are going to be gunshy, how can you trust its moved away w/o testing.
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 02:32 AM
Apr 2020

Lots of bills piled up will need to be taken care of. We are actually going to see shortages for sometime. I wouldn't go on a cruise if you pay me. Not because of the virus but because of the fear of getting stuck on an infected ship w/o it hitting a port. The first sign a resurgence its going to be a bigger disaster.

duforsure

(11,885 posts)
40. Because of trump and the gop policies
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 03:41 AM
Apr 2020

We are in deep , deep trouble now. As long as trump and the gop have power the economy will be very , very weak. They're already trying to protect the rich , and refusing helping the rest of the American people. trump will stiff the American people every chance he gets just like he's already done it to others. We've headed towards a putin's russia, where only the most corrupt are allowed to prosper, if trump has his way. The way out of this is generate revenues at once with reversal of the huge tax breaks given to the wealthy, test in mass numbers for people's returning to work that aren't sick with close monitoring, and start new green energy businesses like mass solar cell and installation companies subsidized to be successful, generate good jobs, and lower our energy costs by installation for pennies on the dollar for all homeowners. Legalize federally MJ also generating money for the government , creating jobs, and lowering incarceration costs. Production of an all electric vehicle push , and subsidizing their production and costs to consumers. Increase all internet capabilities and helping provide internet for free to everyone. Provide low cost health insurance from the government for everyone, reducing costs for the American people. Health care and insurance costs are draining our economy, so now is the time for them to be slashed. Of course trump and the gop will never do any of these things. Maybe Biden would . Under trump we'll be maybe near or in a depression, but he'll refuse to say it,and instead will claim its great, from his actions.

DFW

(56,427 posts)
41. IF there is a universally effective vaccine with no side effects
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 04:18 AM
Apr 2020

But probably not until then, not completely.

exboyfil

(17,981 posts)
42. Inflation on those things you need to survive
Mon Apr 13, 2020, 05:01 AM
Apr 2020

Property taxes (and rents driven by property taxes), medicine and healthcare (and health insurance driven by those changes), and food.

Deflation on a lot of other stuff. Auto sales way down.

Entire industries contracted. Smaller budget feature films, fewer movie theaters, fewer cruise lines (if any), and fewer sporting events.

What surprised me was the stock market last week. That represented how willing this administration is to pump dollars towards corporations to keep equity holders whole. It frankly is a travesty. In a lot of cases you have to let these industries go. They are never coming back. People criticize the GM bailout, but the stockholders were wiped out in that case. That is what it means to own stock, you take the risk of business failure.

I am on the fence on how inflationary the public printing press is going to be.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»is the "normal" economy c...