General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forumsis the "normal" economy coming back?
what do you think? Has the economy changed permanently? in one year from now, will be be living life as we did in February 2020?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-normal-economy-is-never-coming-back/
20 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited | |
yes, it will eventually return to normal | |
5 (25%) |
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it will almost return to normal | |
2 (10%) |
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no, it won't return to normal - tell us how you think it will be different | |
13 (65%) |
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Other | |
0 (0%) |
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0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided. | |
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll |
rzemanfl
(30,274 posts)take big hits. Movie theaters, fitness centers and restaurants a little less. Malls may be a thing of the past. Colleges and the "hookup culture" will change a lot. Parents will be reluctant to spend $50K a year on schools that might close in the middle of the year and send their kids home. Big weddings will be slow to come back. Nothing will be the same unless and until there is a vaccine, everyone gets it and some time goes by.
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)with those huge theme park areas and cruise ship ports. California has disneyland but it's not near as dominate a force.
the change to higher education will be interesting to see... maybe online becomes preferred...
Under The Radar
(3,418 posts)How many people do you think will show up to a Yankees game, Broadway play, concert, movie or Disney world? Basically the entire live entertainment industry is likely dead until a vaccine is found.
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)sop
(11,094 posts)many of the small, independent "mom and pop" businesses will not survive, and will be supplanted by their larger, probably corporate-owned counterparts.
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)2naSalit
(92,395 posts)but it won't look much like the one we have now, I hope.
If we are going to make a transition to a more sustainable existence, we would do well to let a lot of the shit from our current system die and start a bunch of new economic programs that are more inclusive and equitable while also moving decisively toward healing the biosphere. Anything else will be a return trip to where we are now, if we survive the ecological backlash.
ETA: We could get rid of major corporations and start a new paradigm in living with a new form of currency that will be less susceptible to uberwealth.
Igel
(36,027 posts)Something close. Some small changes.
If people allow it. I keep hearing things around the edges--if the government can seize control to save lives during a COVID-19 epidemic and make things better, why not for __________? (Insert Big Important Goal of your choice--economic equality, racial equality, climate change, healthcare ...)
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)right now, their in a back room, figuring out how to benefit
hedda_foil
(16,495 posts)Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)peacebuzzard
(5,261 posts)package centers and cargo/mail transport will be the bulk of the transportation industry.
travel and vacations will sink.
social gatherings will decrease, commercial business, groceries, restaurants will be operating more drive-ins.
no superstores, mega-malls or large aircraft. small and sleek will be the normal.
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)peacebuzzard
(5,261 posts)no handshakes, hugs and social kiss kiss gone. customer service will be with gloves and everything packaged.
airlines will be removing and rearranging seat configurations and jacking up prices.
traffic rush hour will not exist since 9-5 will be virtual.
crickets
(26,148 posts)Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)TexasBushwhacker
(20,646 posts)Once they've proven that they can be just as productive working from home (if not more), wouldn't be great if more employers allowed telecommuting? Less traffic, less air pollution.
If unemployment gets and stays really high for more than a few months, we're going to see more extended families living together and more intentional co-living arrangements.
One more thing; now that millions of parents are experiencing the joys of home schooling, I hope we hear less bitching about teacher's salaries.
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)what is possible. I wonder if rank and file will be allowed to work home at least one or two days per week when this is over.
ProfessorGAC
(69,685 posts)...that's a change in business practice, not an economic change.
I answered it will eventually return to normal, perhaps BECAUSE OF the changes in practices you describe.
Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)for their employees. Not only is it a boon for the employees, the businesses may well find they don't need the large, lavish HQs with multiple offices and conference spaces. I can picture a scenario where a core executive level could operate from a central location, with all supporting services off-site in WFH. It could be a win-win experience.
TexasBushwhacker
(20,646 posts)Just because you're doing IT for a megacorp shouldn't mean you need to live in a big city with a high cost of living.
Totally Tunsie
(10,885 posts)won't need to locate for jobs. We can live where we'd like, not where we need to be.
Dan
(4,036 posts)But while I do believe that a lot of companies will have found benefits from their employees working at home, along with the reduced expenses associated with maintaining office space. Plus, in some cases the company might discover that the employees are more productive and willing to work more hours over a twenty-four period. I also think this...
From the Corporate standpoint, why not go all in - and eliminate employees and just have independent contractors, aside from just the few staff that are absolutely essential.
One step further, they might not have to provide additional pay or benefits with this option.
This is what I think will happen. It is logical.
Quixote1818
(30,322 posts)but I don't think you will see things like big sporting events, conferences etc.
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)indefinitely. say "shelter in place" ends after May. it will be months before organizations even consider scheduling a big conference.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)People will still be very afraid and wary of resuming their former lifestyles until there is a vaccine. And we have no idea how much this virus can mutate, like the flu. There might need to be a new vaccine every year and even that might not be completely effective.
Also, the transfer of wealth from the middle class to the very wealthy is setting in like cement and that is going to show up as a more sluggish economy as well. The very rich can only consume so much, but when a majority of the purchasers in this country are having to tighten their belts, the effects will ripple throughout the entire economy. Corporate revenues and profits will decline, more people will lose their jobs, and so on.
Initech
(101,716 posts)And that the few variations that are out there aren't all that different in sequences. So if we can squash this thing with a vaccine, we could squash it for good.
smirkymonkey
(63,221 posts)all with a vaccine, but the economy is not going to snap back to normal immediately like Trump thinks it is. People will ease back in slowly until they know that the rates of illness are really subsiding on a meaningful level. There will still be a lot of fear even after the lock is lifted.
Demsrule86
(70,981 posts)so many jobs will be lost and who can buy cars now? So manufacturing takes a hit.
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)TexasBushwhacker
(20,646 posts)They talk about people having 6 to 12 months of living expenses in savings, and how most people don't, but how many businesses do? All the push for profits and SHAREHOLDER value has made businesses forget to have a rainy day fund. Of course, like Trump, they can always lay people off and file for bankruptcy.
OrlandoDem2
(2,259 posts)The vaccine may need to be administered each year like the flu vaccine.
That said, there will be structural changes.
pat_k
(10,814 posts)... the massive disparity between those who are able to "ride this out" and those who are destroyed by it, we could see some fundamental change. Like the wealthy recognizing they must invest in building a stronger economy for everyone in the form of a wealth tax.
I know. Fat chance. But one can hope.
Thunderbeast
(3,528 posts)The arts will suffer. Sporting events will be TV only for some time. Travel will be hindered.
We will see more telecommuting, online shopping, and virtual non-contact relationships.
Normal can not be attained until a reliable, safe vaccine is available....outside of the corporate pharma structure. The rich will die too if the poor are vectors for the virus.
I remember lining up at the fire station to get the Sabin vaccine (sugar cube) to protect against polio. Hundreds lined up on a Sunday afternoon.
I hope our technology can accelerate the process to get a safe vaccine to the masses. I also hope that the consequences for those who refuse to take it (without a valid health concern) are severe.
If someone's convictions tell them that they have a right to crap in the water supply, society would not tolerate their actions. Someone refusing to cooperate in protecting the masses through vaccination deserves severe sanction.
Runningdawg
(4,590 posts)Without a good credit score you can't get: a job, a phone, internet service, a bank account or loan and without a credit card you can't rent a hotel room, apartment, car or campsite.
Demovictory9
(33,668 posts)the deposit out of your account to hold until rental period ends.
kurtcagle
(2,293 posts)1. Cars are going electric, and will start to disappear. Auto manufacturers are already seeing a massive glut, and will reduce production primarily to electric vehicles. I expect internal combustion engine based cars and trucks will end up sitting for a year or more before they are scrapped for parts, while electric vehicles will move but will start dropping dramatically in price. The virus may have pushed the transition to all electric forward by 10-15 years.
2. Home working will become the norm for about 45-50% of the population, and there will be less justification than ever for the building of large corporate offices. The link between pollution and the potential for pandemics will be verifiably established, meaning that there's kind of an upper limit of polllution that we can produce before the air becomes quite literally toxic. Expect ownership of cars to drop dramatically as they exist primarily for commuting, and ride share and similar services to start making up the difference. This in turn is going to reduce the significance of the Middle East as oil demand continues to dry up. I expect that there's going to be a growth industry in conversions, taking cheap ICE cars and retrofitting them with new electric batteries and drive trains, with much of that facilitated by a growth in 3D printed components.
3. Supply chains are going to be dramatically shortened. Countries that have been outsourcing production of goods or processing of food will start pulling those particular operations back to their country of origin. 3D printing will likely significant reduce the overall need for "spare parts", and within the next 2-3 years, will likely cut current manufacturing (pre-Covid) by 50% or more. More jobs in 3D printing, fewer jobs overall and likely the elimination of the traditional factory.
4. Supply side economics is dead as a philosophy, as is mass production based capitalism. We are reverting to the mean. I am not sure we will end up seeing DJIA 30K in my lifetime. Keynes will likely be rehabilitated, Milton Friedman buried.
5. In the next eighteen months, wages are going to be falling across the board, though mainly at the upper level. IT technology is largely deflationary at this point, and for the next few years, its going to be hard to get people excited about tech.
6. Thrift will become a necessity again. We were already heading in this direction, now its going to accelerate. I don't believe that the massive job losses that have occurred this month were due to the Coronavirus, but were in fact already beginning to happen. The Coronavirus simply gave a lot of companies that were marginal the pretext to close up shop without massive liabilities. Conspicuous consumption is going to be seen not as a sign of desirable wealth but as a target for hatred. There's also likely to be a growing distrust of the stock market as being too manipulated, and as a consequence, once we finally do hit bottom, the recovery may be a long U or even an L.
7. Areas of growth - education is going to end up having to refactor for a larger work from home workforce, expect to see some kind of job-works package from a Biden administration, and I think that he will have much more leeway to do significant things with healthcare than Obama was able to manage.
8. Republicans are dead. They have lived by Trump, they will die by Trump. Scientists, teachers, researchers, doctors, statisticians, and so forth will find that they have more clout, while the no-nothings, who have been trumpeting their own ignorance, will discover that people are no longer listening to them, and are treating them increasingly with contempt.
9. I think there is roughly a 30% chance that the United States could end up splitting apart into three distinct countries within the next three years, mostly predicated upon Trump winning a second term "miraculously" or losing but having it overturned by the Supreme Court. It's still unlikely, but at a high enough possibility to be taken seriously.
Historic NY
(37,801 posts)Lots of bills piled up will need to be taken care of. We are actually going to see shortages for sometime. I wouldn't go on a cruise if you pay me. Not because of the virus but because of the fear of getting stuck on an infected ship w/o it hitting a port. The first sign a resurgence its going to be a bigger disaster.
duforsure
(11,885 posts)We are in deep , deep trouble now. As long as trump and the gop have power the economy will be very , very weak. They're already trying to protect the rich , and refusing helping the rest of the American people. trump will stiff the American people every chance he gets just like he's already done it to others. We've headed towards a putin's russia, where only the most corrupt are allowed to prosper, if trump has his way. The way out of this is generate revenues at once with reversal of the huge tax breaks given to the wealthy, test in mass numbers for people's returning to work that aren't sick with close monitoring, and start new green energy businesses like mass solar cell and installation companies subsidized to be successful, generate good jobs, and lower our energy costs by installation for pennies on the dollar for all homeowners. Legalize federally MJ also generating money for the government , creating jobs, and lowering incarceration costs. Production of an all electric vehicle push , and subsidizing their production and costs to consumers. Increase all internet capabilities and helping provide internet for free to everyone. Provide low cost health insurance from the government for everyone, reducing costs for the American people. Health care and insurance costs are draining our economy, so now is the time for them to be slashed. Of course trump and the gop will never do any of these things. Maybe Biden would . Under trump we'll be maybe near or in a depression, but he'll refuse to say it,and instead will claim its great, from his actions.
DFW
(56,427 posts)But probably not until then, not completely.
exboyfil
(17,981 posts)Property taxes (and rents driven by property taxes), medicine and healthcare (and health insurance driven by those changes), and food.
Deflation on a lot of other stuff. Auto sales way down.
Entire industries contracted. Smaller budget feature films, fewer movie theaters, fewer cruise lines (if any), and fewer sporting events.
What surprised me was the stock market last week. That represented how willing this administration is to pump dollars towards corporations to keep equity holders whole. It frankly is a travesty. In a lot of cases you have to let these industries go. They are never coming back. People criticize the GM bailout, but the stockholders were wiped out in that case. That is what it means to own stock, you take the risk of business failure.
I am on the fence on how inflationary the public printing press is going to be.