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Sun Apr 19, 2020, 12:11 AM

 

Appears Belgium now has most per-capita corona virus deaths

The chart below shows per-capita deaths of the five hardest hit counties, and then the US for reference. The starting point for each country is when it reached 5 deaths per million. Between those five and the US are the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Sweden

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Reply Appears Belgium now has most per-capita corona virus deaths (Original post)
Steelrolled Apr 2020 OP
BigmanPigman Apr 2020 #1
Steelrolled Apr 2020 #2
LAS14 Apr 2020 #15
Steelrolled Apr 2020 #16
LAS14 Apr 2020 #17
Steelrolled Apr 2020 #18
Celerity Apr 2020 #5
Celerity Apr 2020 #3
greyl Apr 2020 #4
DFW Apr 2020 #7
DFW Apr 2020 #6
Recursion Apr 2020 #8
DFW Apr 2020 #9
Recursion Apr 2020 #12
DFW Apr 2020 #13
JPbelgium Apr 2020 #10
elias7 Apr 2020 #11
Steelrolled Apr 2020 #14

Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 12:24 AM

1. Looks like the only other countries worse off are...

San Marino. 1,149
Andorra. 453
Sint Maarten. 210

Deaths per 1 million pop.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 12:38 AM

2. You are right, I should have mentioned

 

that I drop all countries less than 1 million population, which tend to be micro-states, since it might not be fair to compare them with large countries with large amounts of countryside.

I generate these charts myself, since early on I could not find trend data that was also per-capita. I assume it can be found more easily now, but I like to do my own thing.

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Response to Steelrolled (Reply #2)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 01:45 PM

15. Thanks! I'd love to see a per capita chart but haven't been able to find one.

Do you post yours on line? Do you do state by state charts?

tia
las

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Response to LAS14 (Reply #15)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 02:04 PM

16. I do state charts as well. I was thinking of putting this stuff on-line

 

so people could make their own charts, but it takes a lot of extra work to make something easy to use by the general public. If this kind of thing is not really available, I would perhaps do the extra work.

I get the raw data from

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.git

which is the Johns Hopkins CSSE data repository. I find it matches very well the data you see on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (maybe they are the same data source).

The problem with these charts is that with too many states or countries, it becomes a muddled mess, which is why I put only a few on the chart above. If you have a suggestion for a per-state chart, with some selected states, I am happy to post it.

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Response to Steelrolled (Reply #16)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 03:42 PM

17. Thanks, but I wouldn't know how to pick which states. You might post that one in this thread...

... at regular intervals. It's interesting.

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Response to LAS14 (Reply #17)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 08:37 PM

18. I'll just post one set, as I think people might get tired of it.

 

Below are the six worst affected states (per capita). I think the recent spike in NY's number might be due to new reporting rules, but I'm not sure.



Below is a selection of other states I find interesting for various reasons. Note that the scale of the vertical axis is much different from the one above. I selected...

Calif because it has done so well despite its large population and several large cities

Washington because it originally had the most serious problems but has been able to control it. Notice how many more days since it first reached 5 deaths per million.

Texas for reasons similar to Calif.

Ohio as middle-of-the-road state.

Hawaii as the least affected state.

South Dakota as the least affected state on the mainland.


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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #1)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 12:59 AM

5. Populations: Andorra 77,000, Sint Maarten (half a Caribbean island) 43,000, San Marino 34,000

all they need is a cluster in a nursing home to blow their stats sky high. San Marino is completely surrounded by Italy, (near one of our favourite Adriatic coastal cities for a quick holiday, Rimini), which sure did not help as well.


Total deaths

San Marino 39

Andorra 35

Sint Maarten 9

Channel Islands 21 (also higher per million than the USA, but they only have 174,000 spread out over multiple islands)

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 12:45 AM

3. Belgium says transparency explains high virus death toll

https://www.euractiv.com/section/coronavirus/news/belgium-says-transparency-explains-high-virus-death-toll/



Belgium now has the highest death rate from COVID-19 in the European Union but officials insist it is because they have been totally transparent with the data. With more than 11.5 million inhabitants, Belgium has more than 4,800 deaths and an average of around 419 per one million inhabitants, now ahead of Spain at 409 per one million, the second highest in the EU. Belgium’s neighbours Britain and France have averages of 202 and 274 per one million respectively, with total reported deaths on the order of 14,000 and 18,000 for populations that are six times bigger.

Belgian Prime Minister Sophie Wilmes had to explain why that was the case on Wednesday (15 April), and said the government “made the choice of full transparency when communicating deaths linked to COVID-19,” even if it resulted in “numbers that are sometimes overestimated.” Most official tallies probably reflect only a fraction of the actual number of infections, because many countries are testing only the most serious cases. Unlike some countries, Belgium takes fully into account the dramatic situation in retirement homes.

In the country’s more than 1,500 such facilities, the numbers include deaths that are considered linked to the coronavirus even if it has not been proven by tests, a choice not taken by many others. “In Europe, no country counts like the others. We have the most detailed method,” Health Minister Maggie De Block told the television news channel LN24. She said the ministry might in future adopt a way of counting that would let Belgium compare its results with other countries, but provided no details.

‘Social, ethical human tragedy’

Some doctors have complained that deaths caused by hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular pathologies and other causes have been lumped into the COVID-19 category, but Emmanuel André, a spokesman for national health authorities, insisted the broad Belgian method of counting “is necessary.” The virus specialist explained that “the accepted practice is to take suspected cases into account” when tracking the spread of an epidemic. COVID-19 deaths that were confirmed by a positive test have represented only around five percent of those reported by retirement homes up to now, but Andre said that increased testing in those facilities would push the rate much higher in coming days. It would also allow authorities to better measure the extent of COVID-19’s spread, he added.

snip

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 12:54 AM

4. Belgium is about the size of Maryland, fwiw.

Maryland has 12326 Cases and 421 Deaths so far.

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Response to greyl (Reply #4)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 03:22 AM

7. It has twice the population of Maryland

It is very thickly settled except for part of the rural east, near the German border (which makes the rest even MORE thickly settled).

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 03:20 AM

6. I am usually in Belgium once a week for work (haven't been back in 5 weeks)

It is very densely populated with a huge immigrant populations that consider themselves to be separate entities from the state, which is already at cultural war with itself (the minority French-speaking Walloons and the majority Dutch-speaking Flemish generally do not get along except in melting pot Brussels).

One of my best friends there was sent home from his rehab clinic after suffering a paralyzing stroke because the beds were needed for COVID-19 patients. He is now trying to navigate the cobblestone streets of Antwerp with a four wheel walker. Another of my friends there was just in the hospital for 8 days after having fallen ill with COVID-19. He is now OK, sort of. He can't take any exertion at all, and may or may not recover full lung function.

The country just extended its lockdown to May 4th for sure, and probably May 11th, to conform with France. I can't get in at all, and even my Dutch colleagues can't get in there, where the Belgium-Netherlands border has long been the most open border in Europe. Half the time, there weren't even border controls 45 years ago between the two, twenty years before Schengen.

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Response to DFW (Reply #6)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 04:05 AM

8. There are cafes divided by that border

I'm really curious what the border areas look like now, because they really aren't designed for a hard border.

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Response to Recursion (Reply #8)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 04:15 AM

9. I'm sure the border areas like that are not heavily controlled

Most of those towns were there before Belgium and the Kingdom of the Netherlands were set up. After all, both countries are post-Metternich/post-Napoleon as legal entities--very recent by European standards, and some of those towns (and their houses!) existed for centuries before that.

The town I live in has been here in one form or another for about 800 years, and it was probably inhabited for a century or two before that. Drawing an artificial line through the middle won't change that.

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Response to DFW (Reply #9)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 08:43 AM

12. I thought it went back to the 80 years war?

The Netherlands were the part of the Habsburg Low Countries possessions that went Protestant and gained independence?

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Response to Recursion (Reply #12)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 10:57 AM

13. The border went back and forth

Even when the Spaniards owned Brabant, the area was all Flemish/Dutch-speaking, and the artificial border lines drawn at the convenience of whatever power was in charge at the time were of greater concern to the occupiers than the locals.

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 05:49 AM

10. every country seems to have its own abacus ?

The reported number of deaths may be among be highest, but to compare it to other countries you probably have to divide the Belgian number by at least 2. Every "suspected" death is counted as corona-related.

For me this graph is more meaningful: the actual occupation of hospital beds:

<a href="https://imgur.com/01nYGMO"><img src="" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

BTW: occupation of ICU beds is about 50% here.

https://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/news/

Oh, and borders are closed and controlled. Even trying to cross a border without a very good reason will cost you € 250 fine...

<a href="https://imgur.com/CDHnNBv"><img src="" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 06:01 AM

11. Transparency, folks

The US has an abundance of patients dying at home, in nursing homes and in hospitals without formal diagnosis of COVID and docs are under pressure not to report these as COVID deaths. I’m afraid our democracy is over.

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Response to elias7 (Reply #11)

Sun Apr 19, 2020, 01:42 PM

14. The CDC recently (last week I think) changed the reporting rules

 

to include deaths that are likely to be COVID-19 related, even if there was no actual test. I believe this contributed to some of the recent spikes in reports. Some states now split up the death figures between those that are certain to be COVID-19, and those counted under the new rule.

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