The Daily Dread - Tracking the spread, 4/26/20 - Democratic Underground Forums

DenverJared

(457 posts)

1. There is a slight problem with the stats

Sun Apr 26, 2020, 12:47 PM

Apr 2020

Different countries report their findings at different times according to local time zones.

The data is not "real time"

Also, in some countries, there are several agencies that report new cases at different times by geographical distribution within those countries.

So one can never get an apples to apples comparison between two epochs.

The only way to smooth out the anomalies is to compare week-to-week statistics on the same day and same time.

calimary

(81,179 posts)

4. Yep, there ARE irregularities and inconsistencies in this entirely NON-scientific sampling here.

Reply to DenverJared (Reply #1)

Sun Apr 26, 2020, 02:29 PM

Apr 2020

Definitely.

There are different data sources. CNN has its own system of metrics. MSNBC has its own. And there are all kinds of variables in rate of reporting, AND the rate the reporting is disseminated in the media.

I've been tracking this stuff unofficially for awhile now, and I've noticed the graphics aren't always regularly available so you can make note of changes at the same time every day, for example.

And frankly, your humble tracker here sometimes has internal variables as far as not being up and "on duty" at the same times every day, and not monitoring continuously to note every change in real time. Sometimes I grab photos of the graphics when they're on delay on our TV because we rolled back on the continuous record mode (or whatever you call it) so I try to get the time check that's ON the graphic itself, rather than depending on exactly when I actually took the photo.

I'm assuming I can get at least some consistent comparisons by relying on a single source for the data. Just happens to be what MSNBC is running because that's what I wind up monitoring a majority of the time.

Long windy way of saying this is not exactly a precision-scientific polling effort. Really more aimed at watching the numbers and the trending within timeframes.

calimary

(81,179 posts)

2. Update

Reply to calimary (Original post)

Sun Apr 26, 2020, 12:55 PM

Apr 2020

At 6:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,898,302
Deaths worldwide - 202,519
Confirmed cases US - 937,659
Deaths US - 53,352

At 9:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,899,233
Deaths worldwide - 202,519
Confirmed cases US - 937,659
Deaths US - 53,352

At 9:34am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,901,872
Deaths worldwide - 202,781
Confirmed cases US - 937,974
Deaths US - 53,354

HOLY COW - the stats changed mere minutes later...
At 9:44am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,905,489
Deaths worldwide - 202,921
Confirmed cases US - 939,234
Deaths US - 53,395

HOLY COW 2.0 - just a few more minutes later, the numbers jumped again...
At 9:50am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,905,873
Deaths worldwide - 202,927
Confirmed cases US - 939,618
Deaths US - 53,401

Sheeeeesh...

calimary

(81,179 posts)

3. OY. Again...

Reply to calimary (Reply #2)

Sun Apr 26, 2020, 01:08 PM

Apr 2020

At 6:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,898,302
Deaths worldwide - 202,519
Confirmed cases US - 937,659
Deaths US - 53,352

At 9:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,899,233
Deaths worldwide - 202,519
Confirmed cases US - 937,659
Deaths US - 53,352

At 9:34am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,901,872
Deaths worldwide - 202,781
Confirmed cases US - 937,974
Deaths US - 53,354

HOLY COW - the stats changed mere minutes later...
At 9:44am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,905,489
Deaths worldwide - 202,921
Confirmed cases US - 939,234
Deaths US - 53,395

HOLY COW 2.0 - just a few more minutes later, the numbers jumped again...
At 9:50am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,905,873
Deaths worldwide - 202,927
Confirmed cases US - 939,618
Deaths US - 53,401

Son of HOLY COW 2.0...
At 9:55am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,906,100
Deaths worldwide - 202,953
Confirmed cases US - 939,845
Deaths - 53,427

calimary

(81,179 posts)

5. Another update

Reply to calimary (Reply #3)

Sun Apr 26, 2020, 04:34 PM

Apr 2020

At 6:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,898,302
Deaths worldwide - 202,519
Confirmed cases US - 937,659
Deaths US - 53,352

At 9:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,899,233
Deaths worldwide - 202,519
Confirmed cases US - 937,659
Deaths US - 53,352

At 9:34am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,901,872
Deaths worldwide - 202,781
Confirmed cases US - 937,974
Deaths US - 53,354

HOLY COW - the stats changed mere minutes later...
At 9:44am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,905,489
Deaths worldwide - 202,921
Confirmed cases US - 939,234
Deaths US - 53,395

HOLY COW 2.0 - just a few more minutes later, the numbers jumped again...
At 9:50am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,905,873
Deaths worldwide - 202,927
Confirmed cases US - 939,618
Deaths US - 53,401

Son of HOLY COW 2.0...
At 9:55am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,906,100
Deaths worldwide - 202,953
Confirmed cases US - 939,845
Deaths - 53,427

At 10:05am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,906,915
Deaths worldwide - 202,982
Confirmed cases US - 940,660
Deaths US - 53,456

At 12:03pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,918,706
Deaths worldwide - 203,692
Confirmed cases US - 952,451
Deaths - 53,958

At 1:21pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,921,783
Deaths worldwide - 203,784
Confirmed cases US - 955,528
Deaths US - 54,050

calimary

(81,179 posts)

6. And another update...

Reply to calimary (Reply #5)

Sun Apr 26, 2020, 10:10 PM

Apr 2020

At 6:08am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,898,302
Deaths worldwide - 202,519
Confirmed cases US - 937,659
Deaths US - 53,352

At 9:06am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,899,233
Deaths worldwide - 202,519
Confirmed cases US - 937,659
Deaths US - 53,352

At 9:34am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,901,872
Deaths worldwide - 202,781
Confirmed cases US - 937,974
Deaths US - 53,354

HOLY COW - the stats changed mere minutes later...
At 9:44am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,905,489
Deaths worldwide - 202,921
Confirmed cases US - 939,234
Deaths US - 53,395

HOLY COW 2.0 - just a few more minutes later, the numbers jumped again...
At 9:50am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,905,873
Deaths worldwide - 202,927
Confirmed cases US - 939,618
Deaths US - 53,401

Son of HOLY COW 2.0...
At 9:55am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,906,100
Deaths worldwide - 202,953
Confirmed cases US - 939,845
Deaths - 53,427

At 10:05am
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,906,915
Deaths worldwide - 202,982
Confirmed cases US - 940,660
Deaths US - 53,456

At 12:03pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,918,706
Deaths worldwide - 203,692
Confirmed cases US - 952,451
Deaths - 53,958

At 1:21pm
Confirmed cases worldwide - 2,921,783
Deaths worldwide - 203,784
Confirmed cases US - 955,528
Deaths US - 54,050

And by evening (6:01pm)
Confirmed cases US - 963,718
Deaths US - 54,558

The marker that some in the media have pointed to is the 58-thousand dead from the Vietnam War. We're gonna pass that figure this coming week.

Just awful. Painful. Stupefying. And Horrifying.