So which is it ? Biden ahead in battlegrounds or Trump ?

Tied in GA and PA

But there are other "battle ground" states like CO where we are up 20 points

We are close in Iowa and TX

Georgia is likely to be the biggest battleground as it also has 2 Senate seats up and they almost always go both to the same party.

I'm not an expert by any stretch, i'm just going by 2016 and the April election here. We knocked off and incumbent Supreme Court Justice and two incumbent Judges in Milwaukee County! Unreal!

Oh, and people are REALLY pissed. Especially after what the WI Kangaroo Supreme Court and the Republican Legislature pulled today. Really, really pissed.

Biden has pulled ahead in AZ as well.

I think the real tell is Trump is going to places where There numbers show he is falling behind but still close like PA and AZ.

Places like WI and MI are too far gone for Trump to visit.

If I am right then his next visits will be GA, FL and TX.

Link to tweet

?s=21

Hometown boy and all?

Trump lost his home state in 2016, but everyone hates him there.

Can the kid from Scranton turn Pennsylvania blue?

No way, no how!

PA is a lock for Joe👊👊👊

He's not really a "hometown boy". In any event, all the state polling shows Trump is underwater in PA. Dems are loathe to admit it, but lots of voters simply did not like Clinton and either didn't vote for her or voted 3rd party. Biden doesn't have that same problem.

I also think the new, relaxed absentee ballot rules will end up helping Biden in Philadelphia where even a great turnout usually lags the rest of the state.

numbers either. That's due to the ratfucking reTHGUGS and their tame MSM.

Because it is hot garbage. You can't create a national poll and then try to extract "battleground" voters out of it. It called something like 15 states battlegrounds and had a sample of maybe 400 from all of them combined. So, that's 30sih people from each state. That's nowhere near enough to have a suitable sample size from any of them.

You either need to do a national poll or a state poll, you can't try to do them both on the cheap like that. You need a sample of atleast 400 from the single state to have any confidence in it, and the quality state polls we are seeing show Biden ahead. We saw a REPUBLICAN poll today some out showing Biden ahead in Georgia, that's not going to be the result if he's doing poorly in other competitive races.

Much bigger than for the top line result.

my point.

If anyone watched the Upshot polls last cycle, you could see one just starting with 50 responses and a candidate could be up 10 or 15 points, but by the time the poll was complete that same candidate was down 5 or more.

Polls was a function if random sampling and you need a large enough n for the central limit theorem to take effect. If I talk to 10 people at random, there's a good chance in a dead even race that I happen to talk to a couple more of one supporter than the other, and my results are 70/30. I could conclude that one candidate is way ahead, or I could talk to another 490.

Media working hard to make it a horse race.

You really shouldn't assume that Biden will win it without any trouble. Think that now, and people will get complacent and careless.

When everyone knew it would be a landslide...

Maybe we should learn from past mistakes.

The Media would say, it is neck-and neck, a real horse race, and unpredictable.

Except for Fox Noise, which would have Trump us by 2 points nationally, and by 15 points in swing states.

You're not going to sell a lot of TV ad time by repeating "it's all over, folks" for the next six months.

Look at polling over time.

Even Kornacki admitted that until more polls come in, it's an outlier.