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Sat May 16, 2020, 12:16 AM

Trump will kill off so many older GOP voters in swing states that it will cost him the election

We're almost at 90K deaths as of 5/15/2020.

We will hit 100K total deaths in a few days.

By the time November rolls around, he will have killed off so many of his own voters in swing states that it will cost him the election.

The below article was published last month.

It looks like Trump is ahead of schedule.

----------------


An academic journal projects that deaths of 65-and-over Republican voters in several swing states will far exceed those of Democrats.

Mass casualties from the coronavirus could upend the political landscape in battleground states and shift contests away from President Donald Trump, according to a new analysis.

Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public administration journal -- Administrative Theory & Praxis -- conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in the fall.

"The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election -- and that's simply just a calculation of age," Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. "The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that's the key to a GOP victory."


https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/how-coronavirus-could-upend-2020-battlegrounds-204708

27 replies, 1910 views

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Reply Trump will kill off so many older GOP voters in swing states that it will cost him the election (Original post)
SouthernCal_Dem May 2020 OP
captain queeg May 2020 #1
Renew Deal May 2020 #2
JI7 May 2020 #4
Celerity May 2020 #19
Renew Deal May 2020 #26
Celerity May 2020 #27
CentralMass May 2020 #3
napi21 May 2020 #5
Phoenix61 May 2020 #12
AllyCat May 2020 #18
Qutzupalotl May 2020 #6
yonder May 2020 #7
BamaRefugee May 2020 #17
Blue Owl May 2020 #8
Thekaspervote May 2020 #9
Cha May 2020 #10
murielm99 May 2020 #11
Cha May 2020 #15
nakocal May 2020 #13
fierywoman May 2020 #14
Quixote1818 May 2020 #16
Celerity May 2020 #20
Celerity May 2020 #21
Rstrstx May 2020 #23
Celerity May 2020 #25
Jamastiene May 2020 #22
beachbumbob May 2020 #24

Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 12:26 AM

1. A lot of the ones that don't die will get sick of his incompetence and lying

At least I hope so. I’d think the old folks in assisted living that see a bunch of their friends die wouldn’t be too happy about it.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 12:31 AM

2. I think the bigger impact will be on those too fearful to show up at the polls.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #2)

Sat May 16, 2020, 12:37 AM

4. I would think those types would not consider voting for him

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #2)

Sat May 16, 2020, 04:19 AM

19. Yes, but that works against us. MAGAts are cannon fodder.

They will go vote no matter what. Our side won't.

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Response to Celerity (Reply #19)

Sat May 16, 2020, 09:12 AM

26. Not their seniors.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #26)

Sat May 16, 2020, 09:14 AM

27. this remains to be seen, I hope you are correct

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 12:33 AM

3. Never underestimate the reserve of microcephalic individuals out there.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 12:44 AM

5. The other thing that would likrly kill off more Trumpers is that they are the ones screaming to

open everything now. They are setting themselves up to get the virus than the Dems who are still saying home instead of eating out, going to the bar etc.

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Response to napi21 (Reply #5)

Sat May 16, 2020, 01:35 AM

12. This! I'm in Florida and people have lost

their minds. They are out and about like nothing ever happened. Me and all my Dem friends are still hunkered down.

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Response to Phoenix61 (Reply #12)

Sat May 16, 2020, 02:16 AM

18. Any chance you are a fellow Hunkerdowner??

Follow Lesley Jordan on Instagram? He makes me laugh!

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 12:45 AM

6. Maybe they'll be a little more receptive to voting by mail.

I hope the deaths decline soon, regardless. This is just nuts.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 12:55 AM

7. This potential impact to tRump's base is likely anticipated

by his campaign....which leads me to think they really do have plans for disruption, someway/somehow, of the vote in November.

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Response to yonder (Reply #7)

Sat May 16, 2020, 02:13 AM

17. The fact that this doesn't bother them at all means they've already gamed the system so that they

don’t even need these folks to “win”.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 12:55 AM

8. Bye Don!

n/t

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 01:03 AM

9. I used to fret over the death tolls.. still do for fellow health care prof, the elderly and those

who caught it through no fault of their own

If gop cult members are foolish enough to go out there and risk it all, then so be it. I can’t help them, I don’t think anyone can. Not gonna fret about them anymore

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 01:15 AM

10. That's what I keep thinking & that their Kill Plan

makes no sense.. but it's trump.

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Response to Cha (Reply #10)

Sat May 16, 2020, 01:28 AM

11. I don't think there is a kill plan.

Trump is so narrowly focused on restarting the economy that he can see nothing else. If people die, it means nothing to him. Restarting the economy is his only way to reelection. He can see only one thing at a time.

If there had been a national strategy to stay at home, and if he had encouraged his base to do that, we could have gotten ahead of this thing, somewhat. Then we could have reopened cautiously. He is too stupid to see that doing things his way is ass backward.

Trump has no plan. And I believe he is bored with the pandemic. He wants to do something new, like Obamagate.

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Response to murielm99 (Reply #11)

Sat May 16, 2020, 01:53 AM

15. Yeah it's just an offshoot..

the kill plan was being dryly facetious. It's happening.. but the goal is to restart the economy that he singlehandedly(along with his flunkies) killed.

Yes.. I can see those idiots in the "war room".. We need a new shiny thing to distract from your total stupidity, kingcon.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 01:39 AM

13. But if they vote by mail

Trump will just have someone (probably Russian) just cast their ballot for them anyway. It is what Putin would want.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 01:49 AM

14. Didn't he manipulate the electoral college by under 100,000 votes?

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 02:03 AM

16. The Wisconsin Supreme Court may have just handed the election to Biden

if it was going to be paper thin again this would probably be enough to do the trick. Opening up the state completely could be catastrophic there in terms of deaths.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)


Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 05:09 AM

21. the numbers of deaths they project are ludicrously high, the study is very flawed

Quote

Even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65 and older could die before the election in both Michigan and North Carolina.

In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.


Snip

To get to 11,000 to 13,000 MORE dead Rethugs than Dems in each of states you are talking about over 100,000 of deaths in EACH STATE (100,000 deaths per state minimum, and probably a lot more (look right below at how many deaths the study predicts for PA), as those states have high African American population (%-wise) large cities, and PoC are dying at much higher rates, so that is also a mitigation factor.


look at the study

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10841806.2020.1752978

As an example, if the results of the calculations noted in Table 3 were applied to the outcomes of the 2016 presidential election, a significant narrowing of the results in the closest contests would occur. For instance, Pennsylvania is implementing a social distancing action showing a projection of 190,000 adult fatalities including across the three age categories 18–49 (7,600), 50–64 (30,400), and 65+ (152,000). After accounting for voter participation, the calculations show that among age group one, 953 more Democratic voters than Republicans voters would lose their lives. In age group two, 1,824 more Republicans than Democrats would potentially perish while in age group three 13,680 more Republicans would potentially perish. Cumulatively, 14,551 more Republicans than Democrats would perish under these projections, a significant change given that Trump carried the Commonwealth by 44,292 votes.



now look at the actual numbers

As of today, North Carolina has has 667 TOTAL DEATHS

Michigan 4825

Pennsylvania 4429


The study is extremely flawed, as it was based on very early flawed models itself.

If you think 190,000 people are going to die from COVID-19 in just PA by November 3rd, 2020, then I have a bridge in London to sell you.

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Response to Celerity (Reply #21)

Sat May 16, 2020, 05:56 AM

23. But they don't have to die, just enough of them need to see the light

Funny how the candidate of nostalgia isn't quite as appealing once you realize they consider you to be expendable.

Given their propensity for voting just a subtle change in the senior vote is enough to swing the election in crucial areas like Florida, Arizona and the Great Lakes.

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Response to Rstrstx (Reply #23)

Sat May 16, 2020, 06:45 AM

25. But that is not what the OP article and study are claiming, nor I am claiming that Trump will win.

I think many will change their votes because he has bollocksed up COVID-19 so massively, but that is not what I was addressing at all with my reply.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 05:30 AM

22. I don't think so. I don't agree.

A lot of right wing old people stay close to home anyhow. A lot of them went through the Depression already. They already know how to make do. They are less likely to get it than you might think. And they, above all of the younger generations, WILL go to the polls. They will get special times to do it, like at the grocery stores, probably.

What I want to know is where is the data on these armed terrorists (that others call, "protesters)? They need to be the ones he kills off the most. THEN, we can be sure we might stand a chance of winning.

Stupid people follow their stupid heroes over a cliff without a doubt or so much as a question. Never forget that. I want our side to win more than anyone, because I am trapped in a very red area of a barely purple, red leaning state. I want Trump gone along with all of the other corrupt Republicans, especially corrupt NC Republicans, because I know how they have run roughshod over my state and were never punished at all for it. They got away with it all.

But, never forget how blindly stupid people will follow that formula Trump has faked to get where he is. And that is what it really is. He has used a formula, that included God, guns, and declaring open season in dog whistles (and sometimes outright) to them. Politics be damned. They want liberal heads on a platter. They want to be out maiming, torturing, and killing minorities. That is their real goal. Never forget that about Trump's base. At their core, all they want is that "open season" feeling to go after minorities. Sure, they hate liberals, but they really REALLY hate black people, gay people, trans people, Jewish people, and women who won't bow down to them. That is what their driving motivation is.

The bigots are the people that should be getting it and dying to lessen the numbers in Trump's base, not older people. Trump's real base is bigots. I know plenty of older people who are NOT Republicans and don't vote Republican, even here in red county hell in a barely purple conservative leaning state. Old people are not the enemy. Old Republicans, sure, but they are not the majority of Trump's base. The majority of Trump's base, in reality, are bigots.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Sat May 16, 2020, 06:12 AM

24. karma can solve many issues, and this is one for sure

 

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