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Thu May 28, 2020, 03:24 AM

Got a guy telling me Higher Death rate in 34 states in 2018 flu than in Corona Virus

Siting this article from a Fox Sports site:

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/34-states-had-higher-death-rate-from-2018-flu-than-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2ULXabMyRxtS4VTtiST1WG5MRM8dEej7y2-ScNnNNlHwcLDsalaSK99Us

I know there has to be something wrong with it...

41 replies, 1728 views

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Reply Got a guy telling me Higher Death rate in 34 states in 2018 flu than in Corona Virus (Original post)
Captain Zero May 2020 OP
DeminPennswoods May 2020 #1
Squinch May 2020 #7
DeminPennswoods May 2020 #35
NutmegYankee May 2020 #33
Alex4Martinez May 2020 #34
intrepidity May 2020 #2
Cicada May 2020 #6
Squinch May 2020 #15
Cicada May 2020 #19
Squinch May 2020 #30
struggle4progress May 2020 #3
Meowmee May 2020 #4
Squinch May 2020 #8
Meowmee May 2020 #11
Squinch May 2020 #12
Meowmee May 2020 #16
Squinch May 2020 #17
Meowmee May 2020 #18
former9thward May 2020 #22
Squinch May 2020 #31
former9thward May 2020 #36
Squinch May 2020 #37
womanofthehills May 2020 #20
Meowmee May 2020 #21
Hav May 2020 #5
muriel_volestrangler May 2020 #9
SunSeeker May 2020 #10
Squinch May 2020 #14
matt819 May 2020 #13
former9thward May 2020 #23
BGBD May 2020 #28
Hortensis May 2020 #41
Johnny2X2X May 2020 #24
BGBD May 2020 #25
Bengus81 May 2020 #26
LisaL May 2020 #27
Bengus81 May 2020 #29
Mariana May 2020 #32
Amishman May 2020 #38
cbdo2007 May 2020 #39
ProfessorGAC May 2020 #40

Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 03:28 AM

1. That flu epidemic killed between

60,000 to 80,000 people in the US according to the CDC.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html


It's possible in some more lightly populated states, it could have produced more deaths than covid19 to date.
This is the DU member formerly known as DeminPennswoods.

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #1)

Thu May 28, 2020, 05:27 AM

7. The CDC numbers are for all respiratory deaths. Including flu and pneumonia.

And they're guesses. See the link in post 2.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #7)

Thu May 28, 2020, 10:58 AM

35. These numbers are for the 2017-18 flu epidemic

although I realize this information is an inconvenient truth.

I would bet dollars to donuts that the cases of death caused soley by covid19 are a fraction of all the deaths being attributed to it.
This is the DU member formerly known as DeminPennswoods.

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Response to DeminPennswoods (Reply #1)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:05 AM

33. The most actual counted flu deaths is around 15,000

The CDC is using estimates for Flu.

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Response to NutmegYankee (Reply #33)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:08 AM

34. Exactly, 3,448 to 15,620 is the accurate annual flu count range. See this OP:

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Response to intrepidity (Reply #2)

Thu May 28, 2020, 04:45 AM

6. Not just apples to oranges, it's 8 month flu season vs just a couple months covid season so far

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Response to Cicada (Reply #6)

Thu May 28, 2020, 06:59 AM

15. The article describes a far more fundamental problem with the

comparison than the duration of the season.

It describes the asinine way the CDC comes up with its estimate of flu deaths and then shows how the experience of ER docs indicate that the resulting CDC number has no basis in reality.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #15)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:27 AM

19. You are correct. But the comparison fails for an additional reason also.

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Response to Cicada (Reply #19)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:41 AM

30. Yes. Definitely.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 03:41 AM

3. We have about as much data as we're going to have for flu in 2018, including estimates

for people who died of complications that year

We don't have this year's data for COVID-19 because the year isn't over yet

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 03:44 AM

4. I think that is for an entire year

Covid has killed more than 100,000 in about 3 months.

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Response to Meowmee (Reply #4)

Thu May 28, 2020, 05:33 AM

8. More than that, the flu numbers don't reflect anything like reality.

Post 2 links to an article that makes this observation:

When reports about the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 began circulating earlier this year and questions were being raised about how the illness it causes, COVID-19, compared to the flu, it occurred to me that, in four years of emergency medicine residency and over three and a half years as an attending physician, I had almost never seen anyone die of the flu. I could only remember one tragic pediatric case.

Based on the CDC numbers though, I should have seen many, many more. In 2018, over 46,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses. Over 36,500 died in traffic accidents. Nearly 40,000 died from gun violence. I see those deaths all the time. Was I alone in noticing this discrepancy?

I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu? Most of the physicians I surveyed couldnít remember a single one over their careers. Some said they recalled a few. All of them seemed to be having the same light bulb moment I had already experienced: For too long, we have blindly accepted a statistic that does not match our clinical experience.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #8)

Thu May 28, 2020, 06:43 AM

11. I didn't read it but I will

But if they really see so few deaths due to flu in er/ hospital, how can there be that many? It has to be counted somewhere. I assume theyíre counting deaths from flu due to pneumonia and complications of the flu etc. As you said maybe it is all respiratory deaths. The numbers for opiod deaths due to addictions are wrong too because they include people who were at end of life due to terminal illnesses and who were overdosed by meds in hospital or elsewhere.

* Ok so I read it and I wonder if the cdc lists actual reported deaths each year of confirmed flu? I will see if it is at the site. There would be some that were not confirmed but not that many more I would think and certainly not all pneumonia deaths are due to flu.

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Response to Meowmee (Reply #11)

Thu May 28, 2020, 06:50 AM

12. But if that were the case, if they were counting flu complications,

all these ER docs would be aware of that. They would have seen the cases. These guys are saying they almost NEVER see deaths attributable to flu.

The article explains that flu deaths are not counted in most states. So the CDC takes ALL respiratory deaths and then applies some riduculous formula to that and then reports the result.

A few states, like CT, DO report flu deaths. The numbers CT reports are usually in the area of a couple or three hundred. That's a state with a number of big cities, and it's commuting distance to NYC where disease spreads quickly. If 300 are dying on a BAD year in CT, that means the total national number for a BAD year would be a lot closer to 15,000 than 60,000.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #12)

Thu May 28, 2020, 06:59 AM

16. I read it, added to my post

I missed the part that says most states donít count them. Yep 15,000 sounds more like it. It is odd that they donít count them. I am going to check the CDC website and see how they are listed.

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Response to Meowmee (Reply #16)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:01 AM

17. My question in all this is why would they do that.

The knee jerk guess would be pharmaceutical profits from the flu vaccine getting into someone's pocket, but that doesn't really make sense because the vaccine is really quite cheap.

So, its a puzzle.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #17)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:21 AM

18. I am not sure, I would have to research it, not that that would give a sure answer

The vaccine is free or no copay in a lot of places too. I have read the statistics for flu deaths for various years and I was kind of shocked that it was that high actually considering we have a vaccine and a lot of people do get vaccinated. Itís a relief to know itís not nearly as high as that.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #12)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:38 AM

22. So career public health scientists are using a "ridiculous formula".

Well then, what do you, an anonymous poster, say is the correct formula?

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Response to former9thward (Reply #22)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:42 AM

31. Read the article in post 2. And, really, can't you do better than that?

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Response to Squinch (Reply #31)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:07 PM

36. I try and meet the standards of who I am replying to.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #36)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:11 PM

37. Keep trying.

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Response to Meowmee (Reply #11)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:27 AM

20. I think the dr who wrote the piece said the actual flu deaths counted were around 7 thousand

He was interviewed on MSNBC. He said the 30,000 to 70,000 number is just an estimate.

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Response to womanofthehills (Reply #20)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:32 AM

21. I guess I missed that part

How do they get from 7000 to 70,000, very strange, but it seems as squinch said they add in other respiratory deaths and estimate uncounted deaths by statistics.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 03:51 AM

5. I also remember idiots

comparing national yearly numbers for the flu and corona in February and March. That doesn't seem to be a thing anymore after the month of April. Now they had to revise it to 34 states? With rising case numbers, I'm pretty certain that this narrative will evolve soon as well. In some states, it's just starting to get worse and then chances are high that a second wave is coming. And that is with people taking more precautions to prevent getting sick.

So they can feel smart doing their bidding for the 1% by comparing yearly numbers in a selection of states with a still developing pandemic. But that won't end well for them and they'll look stupid soon.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 05:40 AM

9. In a typical year, the average under 50 flu deaths are about 1.2 per 100,000

from page 31 here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09-508.pdf (that doesn't have 2018 figures, which were higher, but we'll go with the more typical years before that. That's also "flu and pneumonia" figures, but again, we'll use that). You have to add up the age categories (including assigning a portion of the 45-54 group) and average them.

The CDC page the OP link cites for "if you are under the age of fifty you are in more danger of death from the yearly flu than you are from the coronavirus" - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html - says the symptomatic case fatality ratio for under 50s is 0.0005 - 50 per 100,000. So, for covid-19 to be less deadly than flu for under 50s, no more than 2.4% of them can catch it and show any symptoms. Even with maximum precautions, that's optimistic; for someone claiming "our national lockdown was nonsensical", it's complete bullshit.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 05:50 AM

10. The flu death numbers are wrong in that article.

For example, it says for Aransas:

Arkansas 2018 flu deaths: 670 coronavirus deaths: 117

But the flu deaths for the flu season starting in 2018 was only 120, not 670:
In the 2017-2018 flu season, for example, the flu shot did not work well. About 230 people perished to the virus in the state. The following year, the 2018-2019 season, flu deaths decreased to about 120 in the state. Since 2005 when flu deaths have been tracked by the ADH, the only other flu season to surpass 100 flu deaths was in 2014-2015.
https://www.swtimes.com/news/20200123/flu-deaths-mount-activity-widespread-in-arkansas

For the 2019-2020 Arkansas flu season, there were 118 deaths.
https://www.kark.com/news/local-news/flu-deaths-in-arkansas-zero-new-deaths-reported-this-week-keeping-2019-2020-season-total-to-118/

Arkansas will easily end up with far more Covid-19 deaths than flu deaths this season or the 2018 flu season. Like many red states with careless governors letting meat packing plant Covid'19 spread go out of control, they are just at the beginning of their Covid-19 trajectory. Arkansas just logged its sixth day of 3-digit Covid-19 case gains.
https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2020/may/27/state-logs-sixth-day-of-3-digit-case-ga/

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #10)

Thu May 28, 2020, 06:56 AM

14. And if one state has 100 to 200 deaths per year from flu,

how does the CDC come up with their guess of 60,000 national deaths for the year?

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 06:50 AM

13. Hey, if a random sports guy is saying this...

Then I say we wrap all this up and get back to work.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:46 AM

23. I don't know about 34 states or the 2018 flu

But the stats for the 2020 flu are published every day and they are higher than Covid in some states and lower in others. For example in CA Covid deaths are 3955 and to date flu deaths are 4701. In Texas Covid deaths are 1602 and flu deaths are 2413. The figures are all over the place for the 50 states.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/

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Response to former9thward (Reply #23)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:26 AM

28. The quite part

is that the reason many places aren't hit hard is because we ignored the federal government and states/counties/cities took it upon themselves to enforce social distancing, including shutdowns.

The republican argument is essentially that we don't need stay at home orders because the virus isn't that bad......but not mentioning it is only under control because we changed our entire society in reaction to it and undoing that would lead to an even worse situation.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #23)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:36 PM

41. They sure are! What a mess. But accurate or inaccurate,

those figures are useful for looking at COVID v flu deaths. They're clearly for deaths CONFIRMED at the time by testing or by whoever's doing the diagnosis to be due to COVID or flu. Before the CDC works its mathic.

As the Scientific American blog described explains, when the CDC's algorithm is applied to estimate how many deaths were PRECIPITATED by the flu -- deaths that weren't directly due to flu but presumably wouldn't have happened without it (pneumonia most common), that 15,000 dead in a very bad year is turned into 60,000 total impact.

Valid figures, but being used invalidly. What the Republicans, and almost everyone else, are doing in comparing the counts you posted to the CDC's flu impact estimates is like comparing each specific COVID apple to an algorithmic 10-pound bag of flu apples.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:51 AM

24. And this is a stage the Right is in right now

They're misinterpreting or flat out lying about statistics and then claiming that statistics are just people's opinions. Just ran into this method on Twitter where a Con posted "facts" and a link to the CDC site on respiratory deaths in FL and flat out lied about what is on there knowing that his audience lacks the will or the know how to look at the charts and raw data on that site themselves. So he's effectively given people imaginary information that they think debunks valid stats.

Florida is clearly lying about death count by as much as a few thousand deaths.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:20 AM

25. tell him

he can thank the shutdown, social distancing, and masks for that.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:23 AM

26. Seriously??

Those asshats still comparing the common flu (there is a flu shot available) to a World Wide Pandemic?? This has killed 100,000 in the US in just 90 DAYS and that's with shut downs in place. Without the numbers could be a MILLION dead.

Fuck that guy,tell him to run over to Great Clips in Springfield,Mo and get his hair cut.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:24 AM

27. Why all of the sudden we have to debunk a bunch of crap posted on facebook or told by some relative?

Post after post about debunking some idiotic conspiracy theory.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:40 AM

29. So "Mr. Sports talk" is now playing a doctor on Farcebook??

Blowing off and making light of a World wide Pademic just for his job??

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:02 AM

32. Here's one. The 2018 flu season is over.

The Coronavirus pandemic is not over yet, so it's ridiculous to compare those numbers, in any context.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:12 PM

38. I'd believe those numbers, and it makes COVID-19 more frightening, not less

This thing isn't widespread in most places yet, more than half of the deaths are from PA, NY, and NJ.

The death totals are low in a lot of states because its not common there yet

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:22 PM

39. You just say "Nuh uh!" and then he'll go "Uh huh" and then you go "nuh uh!!!" and he'll go "UH HUH!!

and so on and so on.

Its not worth trying to convince someone of something they don't want to believe.

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Response to Captain Zero (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:32 PM

40. Don't Try To Argue

Ask him who the president was then.
That'll shut him up!
All it means is that PINO fucked things up, twice!

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