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Thu May 28, 2020, 06:23 AM

Asymptomatic COVID-19 cases may be more common than suspected

The problem? Even without symptoms, people can still spread the virus.New estimates of the number of asymptomatic people with the coronavirus suggest that "silent" COVID-19 is much more prevalent than once thought, according to two studies published Wednesday.

The first study, published in†JAMA Network Open, found that 42 percent of cases from a group of people in Wuhan, China, were asymptomatic. The second study, published in†Thorax, found much higher rates of asymptomatic individuals: 81 percent of cases on a cruise to Antarctica. The study from Wuhan looked at 78 patients who tested positive for COVID-19, and found that 33 of the individuals had no symptoms of the illness. These patients were more likely to be women, and more likely to be younger, in their 20s, 30s and early 40s."

Many people still haven't grasped the notion that asymptomatic people can be so common, and they wonder why it is they have to wear the mask when they're feeling well, or why they have to keep doing this social distancing stuff," Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, said.

"Simply exhaling can send out viral particles," said Schaffner, who wasn't involved with either study.


https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/asymptomatic-covid-19-cases-may-be-more-common-suspected-n1215481?cid=referral_taboolafeed

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Arrow 18 replies Author Time Post
Reply Asymptomatic COVID-19 cases may be more common than suspected (Original post)
SunSeeker May 2020 OP
milestogo May 2020 #1
SunSeeker May 2020 #2
Hortensis May 2020 #3
hkp11 May 2020 #5
MissB May 2020 #6
hkp11 May 2020 #12
Jarqui May 2020 #10
hkp11 May 2020 #13
N_E_1 for Tennis May 2020 #4
fescuerescue May 2020 #7
gab13by13 May 2020 #9
fescuerescue May 2020 #15
Laura PourMeADrink May 2020 #11
fescuerescue May 2020 #17
uponit7771 May 2020 #18
Pobeka May 2020 #8
Wounded Bear May 2020 #14
KewlKat May 2020 #16

Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 06:41 AM

1. There's a journal called "Thorax"

Cool.

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Response to milestogo (Reply #1)

Thu May 28, 2020, 06:54 AM

2. Great name for a metal band too.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:11 AM

3. Wow. I read elsewhere that a summer lull, if we have one, would

mean fewer people become ill but the virus continues its spread.

Also read HVAC's a factor. The virus spreads better in dry air, without water molecules impeding its travel from exhale to inhale between people. HVAC of course dehumidifies.

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Response to Hortensis (Reply #3)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:56 AM

5. indoors HVAC is indeed a factor

Last edited Fri May 29, 2020, 09:36 AM - Edit history (2)

I've been looking for what can be done indoors and CDC & EPA are recommending:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/26/key-stopping-covid-19-addressing-airborne-transmission/?outputType=amp

"The evidence suggests that mitigating airborne transmission should be at the front of our disease-control strategies for covid-19. In some ways, that only bolsters public health measures already in place, such as avoiding groups and wearing masks in public. But it also requires that we minimize exposure to airborne pathogens, especially indoors.
To do that, we need to do two things. First, maintain physical distancing. Six feet is good, but 10 feet is better. Second, we must deploy healthy building strategies, such as refreshing stale indoor air. We do this by opening windows in our homes and cars and by increasing the outdoor air ventilation rate in buildings with HVAC systems. Any recirculated air needs to pass through a high-efficiency filter so an infected person in one room doesnít contaminate people in an adjacent room (as happened with the first SARS outbreak). We also have to make sure places such as bathrooms and rooms with infected patients have enough exhaust, and are negatively pressurized relative to common areas, so any airborne virus is confined to limited areas. This isnít rocket science; as far back as 1860, Florence Nightingale said, "Cleanliness and fresh air from open windows, with unremitting attention to the patient are the only defence a true nurse either asks or needs."

CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/office-buildings.html

"Before resuming business operations, check the building to see if itís ready for occupancy.
Ensure that ventilation systems in your facility operate properly. For building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC systems) that have been shut down or on setback, review new construction start-up guidance provided in ASHRAE Standard 180-2018, Standard Practice for the Inspection and Maintenance of Commercial Building HVAC Systems.
Increase circulation of outdoor air as much as possible by opening windows and doors, using fans, and other methods. Do not open windows and doors if doing so poses a safety or health risk for current or subsequent occupants, including children (e.g., allowing outdoor environmental contaminants including carbon monoxide, molds, or pollens into the building).
Evaluate the building and its mechanical and life safety systems to determine if the building is ready for occupancy. Check for hazards associated with prolonged facility shutdown such as mold growth, rodents or pests, or issues with stagnant water systems, and take appropriate remedial actions."

CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/cleaner-air-shelters.html

EPA: https://www.epa.gov/coronavirus/can-running-hvac-system-my-home-help-protect-me-covid-19

AC: https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/blog/air-conditioning-coronavirus/

Offices: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/health/cdc-coronavirus-offices.html

Most of the superspreader coronavirus cases were indoors.

Here's news/resources/vaccines/research info on coronavirus: https://www.coronavirustoday.com/

Stay safe!

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Response to hkp11 (Reply #5)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:54 AM

6. I can see not going back to my cube until a vaccine is developed

Iím fortunate that my employer allows me to wfh. Stale indoor air and closed windows pretty much describes my office. I usually arrive right before the air system kicks on for the days and the air is terribly stale.

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Response to MissB (Reply #6)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:25 AM

12. same here

I am working from home right now, but I want to delay going into the office until a vaccine is ready, but if I have to go, I'm wearing a mask. I arrive early also into the office before the ventilation system kicks in and yes the air is stale. Companies will have to do check into all of this if they don't want employees to get covid-19.

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Response to hkp11 (Reply #5)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:20 AM

10. Thanks for this post. Good info that could save lives nt

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Response to Jarqui (Reply #10)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:28 AM

13. you're welcome

we have to keep looking weekly for more scientific info besides CDC/EPA (they are kind of slow to publish info) to see what else they have discovered regarding the spread of covid-19 and how to diminish it's spread.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 07:48 AM

4. Kinda on the fence about the name...

not really head over heels...sorta in the middle.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 08:57 AM

7. This crisis is like war

The first casualty is the truth.

Take a position, any position and you can find someone in authority, or just a crackpot who is out there willing to support it.

I myself have seen articles advancing the idea that Asymptomatic cases may be quite rare.

Sadly, this issue has become political, complete with competing agendas and naratives.

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Response to fescuerescue (Reply #7)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:11 AM

9. What is the political agenda

for following the advice of medical experts that save lives? I know what the agenda is for the right, open the economy without any care about how many unnecessary lives will be lost. I see the agenda on the right when Trump outlawed states the right to shutter meat processing facilities.

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Response to gab13by13 (Reply #9)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:43 PM

15. We would have to ask that particular individual

And even then we wouldn't know.

Don't kid yourself into thinking that everyone standing in front of a news camera is a saint who's only goal to take care of you.

Sure there's a few. Good luck sifting them out.

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Response to fescuerescue (Reply #7)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:21 AM

11. I imagine it's hard to prove, eh. Let's just say you are Person A and

diagnosed positive today. You picked it up from Person B (when they were asymptomatic). The last time you were near Person B was 14 days ago. Presumably, Person B has already been diagnosed say 7 days ago and is now showing symptoms.

It all works (proof) if A & B know each other. If they are strangers, you would never know, right?

And how can you prove the theory in a lab? You'd have to have two people willing to get it.

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Response to Laura PourMeADrink (Reply #11)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:47 PM

17. Indeed it is

And we are dealing with real lives.

The mix of what we don't know, what we do know, what we do know that isn't right. What we think we know, What is miscommunicated, the agenda of the day, the narrative of the day.

After all that, it's no wonder it's a swirl of conflicting information.

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Response to fescuerescue (Reply #7)

Thu May 28, 2020, 02:41 PM

18. I've not read one article from a credible source claiming such, do you have a link? thx in advance

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 09:04 AM

8. Two months ago studies have suggested 50% of cases are asymptomatic.

I'm not going to dig them up but my perspective is this is nothing new. It's good the news keeps re-iterating the message with new data though, getting more people to wear masks is a good thing!

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 10:19 AM

14. And without adequate testing, we'll never really know...

we still haven't tested enough people to get a good statistical handle on this disease. As a country, we should be testing 1% of the population per week, at least, and more would be better. Unless we start randomly testing people, especially asymptomatic people, we'll never have a good statistical basis to base decisions on. So far, we have the brute force methods of self isolating and social distancing, which can't go on forever, and probably not until we get a vaccine. It's just not practical.

It's kind of like polling. You need a wide sample size to get meaningful data, but in this case a few hundred won't cut it. We should be doing millions of tests per week.

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Response to SunSeeker (Original post)

Thu May 28, 2020, 01:46 PM

16. Kick


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