FLIP flip FLIP flip Election map FLIP FLIP FLIP FLIPS **BIG** News on the Election Maps today....

[DonRedwood]

I like to look at the election maps from The New York Times, TalkingPointsMemo (TPM), and the Huffington Post (hp) and sort of blend them together to average out the maps.

HOLY COW PEOPLE! If you haven't seen an election map for a while there are some big changes ahappenin'!

BOTH TPM AND HP HAVE ONLY 18 RED STATES LEFT!! (and six pink)

HP has turned ALL of its swing states blue except Iowa. Yes, that is right, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampsire, Colorado and nevada are now all blue. SOUTH Carolina just went pink as did SOUTH DAKOTA and NEBRASKA.[/bTennessee and Georgia went pink right after the DNC and have stayed that way. ]HP is giving, at this point, 326 electoral votes to Obama.

TPM has also turned Montana, Arizona and Indiana pink. They have more swing states on their map but are giving Obama 274 electoral votes at this time.

NYT is the most conservative of the maps. They have not called any of the usual swing states. They have Missouri as pink. They give Obama a lead with their electoral votes coming in at 237.

The only sad news in all of this is Texas turned red after spending a week pink.

This is big news people! This is a shift in how the media is beginning to admit that Obama is ahead. They want a close election, that garners more readers and viewers, but nobody wants to be dead wrong. Nobody wants to be the paper running the "Mondale Wins!!" headline on accident.

I'm starting to think we might see a pretty good sized landslide.

http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw

[Arugula Latte]

1. Great news.

Iowa seems easier to flip to blue to me than some of those other states ... interesting. But I won't quibble.

[nanabugg]

38. Great news. AND we can't stop now until 49 states are blue or purple. nt

[DonRedwood]

48. I'll settle for 30-40 of them :0)

[pangaia]

2. Great !

But never get complacent. We need to get out the vote to counter cheating, lies, hate and surprises...!!!

[DonRedwood]

4. I want some more of those red states!! We gotta work hard for that

I remind myself these maps are based on polls of likely voters. If you only registered and voted in 2008 you most likely aren't counted as a likely voter...nor are minorities quite often.

:0) I WANT SOME MORE RED STATES!!!

[oldhippydude]

25. Don.. i'm not going to say that we don't have to work

but there are a couple of situations where we are favored as we move forward... first of all the Republicans in effort to solidify their base, have managed to piss of all the electorate with the exception of old white men, and vacant chairs..

the good news is that there is now emerging a demographic change.. they are pissed and they are us... as the demographics change more and, more states will come into play.. Notably Arizona and Texas, probably North Carolina as well..

our job is to stay resolute and work our tails off till we have the wind at our back..

[DonRedwood]

27. I've seen plenty of states turn red over the years to know the work never ends til election night

and starts over the minute the results are read.

But pep talks are good for the team. :0)

Imagine the pep talks the republicans are getting.

[oldhippydude]

32. that's my thought

the day after the election we look forward to who we can get in 14..start recruiting and working (that's what we should have done in 08)

[bluestateguy]

3. HP is using a model designed by a political scientist

Using actual science and professional statistical modeling.

Not some sniveling little ignorant reporter who just repeats the crap he hears at the Georgetown Cocktail Party.

[DonRedwood]

5. Not a fan of Silver, eh?

[bluestateguy]

12. Nate Silver is brilliant

Nate Silver is a political scientist and statistician, though he holds no academic appointment. He is not a reporter, he just does a blog for NYT.

Nothing in my previous post should be referred to Silver at all. He's great.

[DonRedwood]

21. phew! you had me worried there for a second. I've been finding him very interesting to follow.

[Blue_In_AK]

35. I like Nate Silver,

but he's often wrong when it comes to Alaska's politics. He can be forgiven, though, since there's seldom any rhyme or reason to what goes on here during elections.

[Samantha]

66. My number one source for polls is Nate also

I have made several posts here about his projections before the media started telling the truth about the swing states. However, since about September 9th, his electoral college vote number has declined about 13.2 points and Romney has risen by the same amount. That is disturbing. The only thing I can think of is that the mid-east turmoil has caused him some support. Obviously, Romney/Ryan have not done anything that would have dramatically caused an upward tilt, so what else could it be? He is now at 305.6 versus Romney's 232.4 which obviously is a great number, but note the drop in small print since 9/6:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I am kind of worried about why that number is dropping. Talk me out of it.

Sam

[BlueToTheBone]

6. Wish the House and Senate were more secure

Losing both the House and Senate will be a disaster. Also so many state Houses are turning red which is very ominous.

[progressivebydesign]

9. Yes. That is troubling to me. I keep reminding everyone vote (D) down the ticket!

Send some $$ to the Congressional candidates, and be sure you know who is running in those races. A Democratic President without a cooperative House/Senate, will be a repeat of what we've had since 2010... roadblocks. Intentional roadblocks.

[mountain grammy]

45. Agree, it is essential to turn the House and keep the Senate

A few bucks to good Dems running around the country. I've sent $$ to Joe Mikloski trying to unseat the extreme Mike Coffman here in Colorado. Not my district, but Coffman's got to go, as do quite a few other crazies in the House. Go to the DCCC and give these good folks some support.

[DonRedwood]

52. I'm just hoping, if we don't take the house back, that at least some of the nutjobs go away

[DonRedwood]

11. I feel pretty good about the Senate (except for CT--what's up with that mess?)

McCaskill has pulled ahead in the polls so I'm even pretty optimistic about that race!

As for the House...as long as Joe Walsh is gone, I'll feel the world is a better place.

[aquart]

16. You ask about the state that kept electing Joe Lieberman?

Seriously?

Disclaimer: I am a New Yorker. I never have anything good to say about Connecticut or New Jersey.

[DonRedwood]

22. I got lost in connecticut once... it had nice trees.

But I went to Rutgers and anything good about New Jersey is completely wiped away by the stench of Elizabeth. I hope that has gotten better since the 80s.

[Jennicut]

30. Lieberman is retiring. We have Blumenthal instead of Dodd, who also retired.

Blumenthal is an improvement. We also have a Dem governor now. The CT race is tight but not impossible. McMahon has tons of money and Murphy is pretty young and not as well known.

[DonRedwood]

33. How is his campaign? We haven't heard much about him.

I'm thinking I might just have to drop him a small donation. We gave ourselves a budget of $100 to donate politically this year and we've used it up. BUT... I really don't like the idea of McMahon being a Senator. Another rich person who is willing to spend a fortune to buy herself fame and power. UGH.

[DonRedwood]

34. Here is Murphy's website. Since you are from CT, maybe you should do a "HELP OUR GUY WIN" post ?

http://www.chrismurphy.com/

share his address, maybe get him some money and press?

[Jennicut]

46. Thanks, I'll put together a good post later.

He needs money but he is a good campaigner. Murphy is my Rep and once beat a formidable Nancy Johnson to get his seat.

[DonRedwood]

51. You do the post and I'll be your first kick, recommend and donation. How's that sound?!

[lindysalsagal]

63. I sent him a few and he's got a good ad running. She's such a slimeball.

She contradicts herself in her ads against Murphy, that he won't stop spending money/he's going to kill defence spending in CT and we'll lose JOBS!

Makes no sense at all, and CT people are a whole lot smarter up here than in some other regions. Even with all our money, we're blue, because even rich people don't want fools and dummies and liars in charge.

[DonRedwood]

64. How much money has she spent so far to be senator?

[lindysalsagal]

65. Millions. It's her second try.

Honestly, I don't bother with that kind of trivia. The funny thing is she doesn't seem to realize that claiming royalty status in professional wrestling isn't something to be proud of.

[Auntie Bush]

7. I have been thinking landslie for quite awhile. n/t

All we need is for Romney to make one more goof up and he's toast in 3/4 the nation.

[DonRedwood]

13. At this rate it is almost one per day!

[jimlup]

8. Given what WE know

Why is there any Red on the map? I mean I know I know but really it is amazing. I've always wondered why so many Americans have been so totally fooled by the Repukes.

[Blanks]

18. Fox News, hate radio, church.

We don't all get exposed to the same information.

[Fawke Em]

20. I'll back you up on that.

In Tennessee, there is NO liberal media outside of Memphis and it's sparse there.

[DonRedwood]

23. Tennessee is now pink at least!

And I really liked Al Gore so I have faith TN will come back to its senses.

[DonRedwood]

28. pretty much every country that has a murdoch-run press company is in the same boat

[proud2BlibKansan]

44. I live in a deep red state

And I've been asking that question for years.

[DonRedwood]

54. My dad was born in Kansas

As were his parents. Good people every one of them. :0) Even if they were from a red state.

[proud2BlibKansan]

55. It was a great place to live until Brownback was elected.

He's screwed it up pretty bad.

[DonRedwood]

58. Republican house control there?

[proud2BlibKansan]

59. Always

For as long as I can remember. But they weren't all that bad until the tea partiers took over.

[DonRedwood]

60. Ah. Yeah, the sensible Republicans were...sensible.

But a dying breed from the look of it!

[Melissa G]

50. In Texas, it's vote suppression

and election fraud.
80,000 voters worth at least and that is in just this swipe.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021357001

So many efforts to keep power in the hands of old rich white guys when the majority of Texas is no longer that demographic.

[jimlup]

57. Wow and you have to wonder as Texas moves towards blue in 2016

exactly how desperate will they get. My guess is pretty desperate and they will do some serious anti-democratic things. We're going to have to fight them at every step.

[DonRedwood]

61. seems they are doing it already

[Melissa G]

62. You cannot imagine how bad it has been

the last 10 or so years since the demographics have turned against the Repubs.Power grabs galore abound.

Delay's mid decade re redistricting started the down the rabbit hole experience and it has gotten worse from there with the rise of the Tea Party. Sad stuff.

We have been fighting, but since the R's had a super majority in the Lege and hold every major statewide office, there has not been much we have had success with.

[Life Long Dem]

10. I think it's over if Romney loses in Florida.

You could give Romney pretty much the remainder of toss up states except for Florida and one toss up state, and he still loses. One of these, Iowa, CO, WIS, VA, OH, NEV or even NH and Florida would do it for Obama.

[DonRedwood]

26. I think you are right

but, at this rate, Obama can lose Florida and still win. BUT, the medicaid issue is starting to swing in Obama's favor. He just may sweep the swings states if the older voter move in his direction even just a little bit. :0)

[smackd]

14. I've been saying bigger landslide than 2008 since July. (nm)

[DonRedwood]

41. I think you are right :0) I've been thinking the same thing since I saw the rep candidates

the only one i was scared of was huntsman.

[cr8tvlde]

53. He was impressive. Wasn't he the first one to exit?

[DonRedwood]

68. yup

[NightWatcher]

15. I like playing with the map at 270towin.com

there are so many ways for Obama to win and so few for R$

[rhett o rick]

17. Please dont forget about local elections. nm

[IllinoisBirdWatcher]

19. Only if we continue to WORK FOR IT.

GOTV is the key to this. Working around and through the attempted voter suppression.

This is not the time to predict landslides. This is the time to find new voters; turn more of the map blue.

[DonRedwood]

24. I'm workin! Duckworth, Warren, Shirod Brown, McCaskill, Obama + bunch of WI Dems have got $ from me

Zerbin in the primary.

I'm on a blue state--so I could say I've done my job.... but I'm helpin' out where and when I can on the bigger scale.

[liberal N proud]

29. As much I am thrilled with this, I still fear election fraud will hand Romney the office.

[porphyrian]

31. . n/t

[judesedit]

36. Texas still bright red. Texans must have the most racist, redneck, and stupid people in this country

Sorry to say Texans!

[Mariana]

42. There are lots of good people there.

They're outnumbered by the idiots in most areas, unfortunately.

However, I lived in Texas for a long time (just escaped last year) and I have to say the racists, rednecks, etc. in Texas aren't any worse than the racists, rednecks, etc. everywhere else. There are just so many of them...

[DonRedwood]

43. +1 The Texans I know, I like. :0)

[Hyper_Eye]

37. These maps do not have me convinced.

I will feel better when there is a much more visible break in President Obama's direction. A major news event or blunder by the President can still change the dynamics of this election. Today in 2008 the numbers were almost exactly where they are now but in McCain's favor. By the end of the month he was clearly losing in a huge way. That is how quickly the race can shift. Obviously in 2008 the catalyst was the incredible economic crisis along with John McCain's ridiculous response in suspending his campaign which was something the whole country could see through and it made him look reactive and silly.

You can see that comparison here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_compared_to_obama_vs_mccain.html

I am not going to relax and be comfortable. This is still a very close race and there are still plenty of days between now and election day. We still haven't had a debate yet and there are four to occur. Any minute of them could turn into a disaster.

I believe that Nate Silver has a very good model. It is not perfect but it has been proven to be very accurate. Looking at his blog I want to see the popular vote spread increase. If I see that number holding steady at 52% I'm going to start to feel much more comfortable.

[AverageJoe90]

40. This isn't quite 2008, though.

McCain was actually kinda likeable despite the house gaffe and his choice of the caribou queen for a VP(not quite IMO, but compared to Romney?). But, after 8 years of screwups by Bush, an Obama win was practically assured regardless, especially thanks to the extraordinary amount of dedication from Democrats.

In all reality, the only thing close about this race is a few of the swing states. Obama would probably have this in the bag by now, but we have got to keep ensuring a steady turnout, and more importantly, get people registered to vote and keep fighting those odious voter ID laws!

[DonRedwood]

47. Fox and CNN basically ignored the polls that showed Obama ahead in 08

They were slanted in the wrong direction from the get go.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

56. It's pretty amazing

I can truly say I never hated McCain, there might have even been a time waaay back in 2000 I'd have voted for him, but Mitt Romney is just awful. I've said it's near impossible for Obama to match 2008, but maybe, just maybe people will hate Romney THAT much they will run to Obama at the end of the day.....

[AverageJoe90]

67. There's already been a fair number of Republicans who've done just that.

You thought 2008 was a revelation.....honestly, what's been happening this past year or so has just blown my mind, completely.

[donqpublic]

39. Swing States

I want all the swing states. Though my concern is too much talk about big leads and landslides leads to people staying home. This obviously does not apply to the people here.

The battle cry.

It's close, it's close, it's close! Go vote, go vote, go vote!

If you prefer something more syncopated (not sure if that music term applies).

It's close, Go Vote!

It's close, Go Vote!

It's close, Go Vote!

[Iliyah]

49. Yeah but be aware of the lying, cheating,

stealing and ugly politics that will ensue coming into the coming months. Vote and get people out to vote!

Remember the voter suppression laws and purging and GOPper Secretary of States in the GOP run states. Also remember that they will be sending out approx. 1 million voter vigilantes who will be effing with voters at the voting stations.

[Sirveri]

69. I like electoral-vote.com

[img][/img]

Generally the guy does a pretty decent job.

[Texas Lawyer]

70. We NEED, NEED, NEED to push this fight down ballot!

I hope to win the Presidency (of course), but we need to keep a comfortable majority in the Senate (equally important), and we need to make substantial gains in the House (one reason the House Repubs succeed at creating a bottleneck is because the size of their majority allows them to ignore any moderates who might be open to compromise -- if we can win a majority or at least balance the House in a manner that will promote cooperation, that win would really bolster the importance of a Presidential win).