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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTrying to imagine the insanity: An Israeli attack on Iran
What would happen next? The Iranians say they'd destroy Israel. I think it reasonable to assume they would launch attacks. How many would be killed? Would Israel re-retaliate? Would the U.S. get involved? Great Britain? Other countries? What would be the reaction in the nations of the ME? Would we see attacks here in the U.S.? Would AQ become much stronger almost overnight? What would happen in Egypt? In Pakistan? In Afghanistan?
this is some seriously scary stuff.
redgreenandblue
(2,088 posts)Would Russia and China stand by and see one of their important sources of fossil fuels go dry?
muriel_volestrangler
(101,157 posts)so they wouldn't be concerned from that point of view. China's long distance military capability isn't so much. I don't think either would be about to start a world war over it, though they'd want any conflict over as soon as possible, and would want the west to take blame for it.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)destroy you finally has the bomb or if hes going to use it. Id say the most important thing is to stop the Iranian Regime from getting nukes.
cali
(114,904 posts)in the event that Iran did get nukes that they'd use them. This whole "they're insane" dog shit doesn't take into account history- and there is little or nothing in Iran's history over the past 30+ years to indicate that they'd use nukes. Certainly no more than Israel.
I'm so sick sick sick of this bullshit.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)must be lying when he talks about his israel speel but telling the truth at all other times. you go ahead and trust the guy but as i said its easy to say that when your sitting in the US, not so easy if you are in tel aviv and see the crap that is put out about israel and the wicked jews from the media around you.
cali
(114,904 posts)Because if you are, he ain't the one in charge.
And if you knew anything about the ME you might realize that much of what's spewed is rhetoric used to appeal to the masses. To be sure, it's vile, but this ridiculous, unfounded dogshit has no historical reality at fucking all, dearie.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)is just fun and games and has no effect on the peoples in the area, are you for real you do realise that there has already been wars fought in this region over the rhetoric. ONly someone who is safely hidden away in the the US would not get that this rhetoric is taken seriously in this part of the world and funnily enough its believed.
cali
(114,904 posts)for years- strongly, do that dog, you're ugly insinuation, don't hunt, sweetie.
As for your vague stuff about wars fought in the region over rhetoric (and of course YOU give no examples) that does NOT fucking outweigh the FACT that Iran hasn't launched a war since the takeover of the gov't from the Shah.
If Israel launches a strike, it will be responsible for the ensuing bloodbath.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)then the iran iraq war kill the shia kill the sunni etc, seems strange that for someone who professes to stand against anti semitism you dont understand the level of anti jewish bigotry that forments in the media and academia of the region and that it does have an effect on the people.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,157 posts)You talk about 'pretty obvious' 'examples of war', but then you mention rhetoric - "kill the jews onto jerusalem etc". Your argument seems incomplete. What are the examples of war you meant?
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)The wars. You know like saddam telling people he was goint to attack iran and kuwait. The wnti jewish stuff before the numerous wars against israel. Hou know stuff like the protocols being used to gin up hatred towards israel.
truth2power
(8,219 posts)would pass away.
Kind of like if I had said I wished the GWB regime would pass from the pages of history. (I think I did say that).
I'll wait to get skewered for this. Wouldn't want to let facts get in the way.
The Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time.
Word by word translation:
Imam (Khomeini) ghoft (said) een (this) rezhim-e (regime) ishghalgar-e (occupying) qods (Jerusalem) bayad (must) az safheh-ye ruzgar (from page of time) mahv shavad (vanish from).
cali
(114,904 posts)That's just bullshit. Regime is how they refer to Israel. Your "facts' are wishful thinking.
truth2power
(8,219 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Odds are Israel will target the suspected "nuclear sites," rather than launch a general attack. Iran's air defense systrem will prove effective enough to takedown a good number of the missiles or, if hte Israelis are using manned jets, some of those will be chased off, if not actually taken down.
Minimum damage will be done to the Iranian facilities. Probably over a hundred government officials, scientists, handful of civilians dead. iran will cite the attack as reason to leave the NPT, as they have already declared they will do in such an event. Iran steps up any nuclear program it may have, just as Saddam did in 1984.
Iran will of course also retaliate. This will take the form of assaults from Hazbollah in the north, and some more of Hamas' famous can't-shoot-for-shit militancy. In addition Iran will fire its own missiles, perhaps launch its own fighters... most of which will also be shot down / turned away by Israeli defenses. Maybe over a hundred Israelis killed (along with several hundred Gazans / Lebanese, who are of course, "all terrorists"
The US will stay true to its principles and not get involved beyond perhaps providing intelligence to Israel; we will not commit our forces unless Iran is the one to launch an attack first.
End result? Quite a few dead people (though I imagine, less than a thousand total), a waste of military resources on both sides, Israel stuck fighting another frontier war in the north, and Iran's nuclear program chugging art a faster pace than before.
Beyond being utterly fucking pointless, it will actually run counter to Israel's interests to launch an attack.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)probuably a few work related accidents and contamination problems etc.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)I expect you to not open your mouth in complaint if Iran meets assassinations with assassinations.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)But thanks for playing. You can go back to watching "The Daniel Project" now.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)why not say what you think instead of beating around the bushes.
cali
(114,904 posts)involved.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)At least, nor in a military capability. We'll shuffle intel to Israel, and use diplomatic / economic pressures, but we will not commit any troops.
We're still pulling our last guys out of Iraq, and are trying to keep a lid on Afghanistan. do you really think that the US - at least under the current administration - is going to throw our men and women at a war of aggression from some piddleshit client state?
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)sat pics etc probuably, mayby resupply of munitions expedited etc.
dballance
(5,756 posts)With our bunker busters. Did we sell those to Israel yet?
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)And make no mistake, that is the bottom line of what the US will do. Despite accusations from some corners - and promises from others - we are not bound heart and soul to Israel. They are a client state, useful primarily because none of the other states in the region seem to have their shit together. If they ask us to throw our military at a third south Asian Muslim nation, one that will make Afghanistan look like a walk in the park, over bombastic rhetoric from a guy who looks like Alan Alda gone to seed, we're going to laugh in their faces.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)Iran in support of another peoples uprising or does your no assasination thing cover that as well. thanks.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Also, I'm pretty certain you don't get how Iran works. The Iranian people may not think their government is the greatest thing since baklava, but they're not going to rejoice if some foreigner assholes try to meddle in the situation.
Think of it this way. Pretty much everyone on this thread, I imagine, detested the Bush administration. Do you think any of us would have rejoiced, however, if China had sent someone to murder Bush and Cheney? I wouldn't have. Yourself?
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)or is that in the memory hole, that they were asking for outside help. even under bush i wouldnt compare living in Iran to the US, i dont support the Iranian Regime in any fashion whatsoever.
RandiFan1290
(6,206 posts)They need support to change things for themselves. Not for Israel or US.
They saw how that turned out for Iraq.
I think Israel is afraid that Iran is making those changes and they are missing their last chance to bully them.
Elections are in June. Israel and US hands off Iran!
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)protests again that will be put down again with violence and the point of a bayonet.
RandiFan1290
(6,206 posts)They never asked for our bombs. I see you are new and this must be moving too fast for you.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)They were asking for political support. Not assassinations, invasions, or missiles up the ass.
loli phabay
(5,580 posts)The leadership in tbeir name would you be up for that. Or is any intervention not to your liking.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)It's a little disturbing.
cali
(114,904 posts)I'm suggesting, if Israel is attacked, that the U.S. would almost certainly use missile strikes against Iranian missiles.
Turbineguy
(37,212 posts)would certainly want other people's kids to get killed.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)TBF
(31,922 posts)and who is president. Romney, he's going to take any opportunity because that is what a republican does. Times of economic strife - start a war somewhere, kill off some of the folks who need jobs, boost the economy making materials for the war etc ... that's a pretty familiar pattern.
With Obama I think it's a harder prediction. Before the election yes - he'd need to act because he's not going to lose pro-Israel supporters. After the election I would expect him behind the scenes trying to influence policy or helping in limited ways. He has guided the good ship Imperialism along pretty well for 4 years, but I also don't think he's completely stupid. I don't think he is really looking for that fight (because it could escalate badly and I really don't think Israel is his first priority) and after this election he is free - he can do what he wants until he retires to his life of building his presidential library and speaking engagements.
Javaman
(62,442 posts)Gas and food here, would certainly go up.
They won't win a lot of friends with that moronic move.