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cali

(114,904 posts)
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:05 AM Sep 2012

Trying to imagine the insanity: An Israeli attack on Iran

What would happen next? The Iranians say they'd destroy Israel. I think it reasonable to assume they would launch attacks. How many would be killed? Would Israel re-retaliate? Would the U.S. get involved? Great Britain? Other countries? What would be the reaction in the nations of the ME? Would we see attacks here in the U.S.? Would AQ become much stronger almost overnight? What would happen in Egypt? In Pakistan? In Afghanistan?

this is some seriously scary stuff.

39 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Trying to imagine the insanity: An Israeli attack on Iran (Original Post) cali Sep 2012 OP
WW3? redgreenandblue Sep 2012 #1
Russia is an exporter of oil and gas muriel_volestrangler Sep 2012 #28
no more scarier than sitting in tel aviv or haifa wondering if the loonie who said he wanted to dest loli phabay Sep 2012 #2
I don't agree. I think it's highly unlikely that cali Sep 2012 #3
and im sick of people who for some reason seem to think that the loonie in charge of Iran loli phabay Sep 2012 #5
What loony? Are you referring to Ahmadinejad? cali Sep 2012 #6
yeah i mean the loonie in charge you know the grand mufti, yeah i guess all this anti jewish stuff i loli phabay Sep 2012 #10
I stand against anti-semitism. I've stood against it here cali Sep 2012 #16
i think the examples of war are pretty obvious, you know kill the jews onto jerusalem etc loli phabay Sep 2012 #19
The Iran-Iraq War was started by Iraq muriel_volestrangler Sep 2012 #31
thought it was pretty obvious in the fact that the rhetoric is used to forment loli phabay Sep 2012 #34
He didn't say that. He said the REGIME now in power in Israel truth2power Sep 2012 #9
Can we stop with idiotic pretending? cali Sep 2012 #18
Who knew? So "regime" means "a country, and all the people in it". Got it. n/t truth2power Sep 2012 #39
Here's what happens, if Israel attacks Iran Scootaloo Sep 2012 #4
alternatively Israel will attack it asymetrically, mayby more computer viruses etc loli phabay Sep 2012 #7
Well, turnabout is fair play, of course. Scootaloo Sep 2012 #12
as i do you. loli phabay Sep 2012 #14
I actually have a problem with any state assassinating anyone Scootaloo Sep 2012 #17
no idea what the daniel project is, and i wish people would not do these obscure references loli phabay Sep 2012 #22
I think you're wrong about U.S. involvement. I think the U.S. would almost certainly get cali Sep 2012 #8
I really don't Scootaloo Sep 2012 #11
i agree, i think if theres any boots on the ground it will be subtle, mostly intelligence assets loli phabay Sep 2012 #13
I believe we'd send our bombers in after Israel's dballance Sep 2012 #20
I can't begin the imagine how doing so would be in the US's interest Scootaloo Sep 2012 #24
lol at the alan alda comment, question for you would you support the assasination of the leaders in loli phabay Sep 2012 #25
No, I wouldn't. What a weird question. Scootaloo Sep 2012 #26
im pretty sure when the government started killing and arresting the protesters, you do remember tha loli phabay Sep 2012 #27
They never asked for bombs. RandiFan1290 Sep 2012 #29
yay elections are in june, so i guess the nutters will win again, do you think there will be loli phabay Sep 2012 #30
They were in the streets for themselves RandiFan1290 Sep 2012 #32
I do remember Scootaloo Sep 2012 #33
so after the last time when they were butchered if they ask us to whack loli phabay Sep 2012 #35
You seem to have a hardon for people being murdered Scootaloo Sep 2012 #37
I'm not suggesting boots on the ground. cali Sep 2012 #21
The US evangelicals Turbineguy Sep 2012 #15
and one Mormon too! B Calm Sep 2012 #23
I dunno - I think it would depend a lot on timing TBF Sep 2012 #36
The price of oil will skyrocket... Javaman Sep 2012 #38

muriel_volestrangler

(101,157 posts)
28. Russia is an exporter of oil and gas
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 06:22 AM
Sep 2012

so they wouldn't be concerned from that point of view. China's long distance military capability isn't so much. I don't think either would be about to start a world war over it, though they'd want any conflict over as soon as possible, and would want the west to take blame for it.

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
2. no more scarier than sitting in tel aviv or haifa wondering if the loonie who said he wanted to dest
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:08 AM
Sep 2012

destroy you finally has the bomb or if hes going to use it. Id say the most important thing is to stop the Iranian Regime from getting nukes.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
3. I don't agree. I think it's highly unlikely that
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:18 AM
Sep 2012

in the event that Iran did get nukes that they'd use them. This whole "they're insane" dog shit doesn't take into account history- and there is little or nothing in Iran's history over the past 30+ years to indicate that they'd use nukes. Certainly no more than Israel.

I'm so sick sick sick of this bullshit.

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
5. and im sick of people who for some reason seem to think that the loonie in charge of Iran
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:23 AM
Sep 2012

must be lying when he talks about his israel speel but telling the truth at all other times. you go ahead and trust the guy but as i said its easy to say that when your sitting in the US, not so easy if you are in tel aviv and see the crap that is put out about israel and the wicked jews from the media around you.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
6. What loony? Are you referring to Ahmadinejad?
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:26 AM
Sep 2012

Because if you are, he ain't the one in charge.

And if you knew anything about the ME you might realize that much of what's spewed is rhetoric used to appeal to the masses. To be sure, it's vile, but this ridiculous, unfounded dogshit has no historical reality at fucking all, dearie.

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
10. yeah i mean the loonie in charge you know the grand mufti, yeah i guess all this anti jewish stuff i
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:30 AM
Sep 2012

is just fun and games and has no effect on the peoples in the area, are you for real you do realise that there has already been wars fought in this region over the rhetoric. ONly someone who is safely hidden away in the the US would not get that this rhetoric is taken seriously in this part of the world and funnily enough its believed.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
16. I stand against anti-semitism. I've stood against it here
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:36 AM
Sep 2012

for years- strongly, do that dog, you're ugly insinuation, don't hunt, sweetie.

As for your vague stuff about wars fought in the region over rhetoric (and of course YOU give no examples) that does NOT fucking outweigh the FACT that Iran hasn't launched a war since the takeover of the gov't from the Shah.

If Israel launches a strike, it will be responsible for the ensuing bloodbath.

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
19. i think the examples of war are pretty obvious, you know kill the jews onto jerusalem etc
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:39 AM
Sep 2012

then the iran iraq war kill the shia kill the sunni etc, seems strange that for someone who professes to stand against anti semitism you dont understand the level of anti jewish bigotry that forments in the media and academia of the region and that it does have an effect on the people.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,157 posts)
31. The Iran-Iraq War was started by Iraq
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 06:29 AM
Sep 2012
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

You talk about 'pretty obvious' 'examples of war', but then you mention rhetoric - "kill the jews onto jerusalem etc". Your argument seems incomplete. What are the examples of war you meant?
 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
34. thought it was pretty obvious in the fact that the rhetoric is used to forment
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 07:52 AM
Sep 2012

The wars. You know like saddam telling people he was goint to attack iran and kuwait. The wnti jewish stuff before the numerous wars against israel. Hou know stuff like the protocols being used to gin up hatred towards israel.

truth2power

(8,219 posts)
9. He didn't say that. He said the REGIME now in power in Israel
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:29 AM
Sep 2012

would pass away.

Kind of like if I had said I wished the GWB regime would pass from the pages of history. (I think I did say that).

I'll wait to get skewered for this. Wouldn't want to let facts get in the way.


”Imam ghoft een rezhim-e ishghalgar-e qods bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad.”

“The Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time”.

Word by word translation:

Imam (Khomeini) ghoft (said) een (this) rezhim-e (regime) ishghalgar-e (occupying) qods (Jerusalem) bayad (must) az safheh-ye ruzgar (from page of time) mahv shavad (vanish from).




 

cali

(114,904 posts)
18. Can we stop with idiotic pretending?
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:39 AM
Sep 2012

That's just bullshit. Regime is how they refer to Israel. Your "facts' are wishful thinking.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
4. Here's what happens, if Israel attacks Iran
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:21 AM
Sep 2012

Odds are Israel will target the suspected "nuclear sites," rather than launch a general attack. Iran's air defense systrem will prove effective enough to takedown a good number of the missiles or, if hte Israelis are using manned jets, some of those will be chased off, if not actually taken down.

Minimum damage will be done to the Iranian facilities. Probably over a hundred government officials, scientists, handful of civilians dead. iran will cite the attack as reason to leave the NPT, as they have already declared they will do in such an event. Iran steps up any nuclear program it may have, just as Saddam did in 1984.

Iran will of course also retaliate. This will take the form of assaults from Hazbollah in the north, and some more of Hamas' famous can't-shoot-for-shit militancy. In addition Iran will fire its own missiles, perhaps launch its own fighters... most of which will also be shot down / turned away by Israeli defenses. Maybe over a hundred Israelis killed (along with several hundred Gazans / Lebanese, who are of course, "all terrorists&quot

The US will stay true to its principles and not get involved beyond perhaps providing intelligence to Israel; we will not commit our forces unless Iran is the one to launch an attack first.

End result? Quite a few dead people (though I imagine, less than a thousand total), a waste of military resources on both sides, Israel stuck fighting another frontier war in the north, and Iran's nuclear program chugging art a faster pace than before.

Beyond being utterly fucking pointless, it will actually run counter to Israel's interests to launch an attack.

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
7. alternatively Israel will attack it asymetrically, mayby more computer viruses etc
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:27 AM
Sep 2012

probuably a few work related accidents and contamination problems etc.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
12. Well, turnabout is fair play, of course.
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:31 AM
Sep 2012

I expect you to not open your mouth in complaint if Iran meets assassinations with assassinations.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
17. I actually have a problem with any state assassinating anyone
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:38 AM
Sep 2012

But thanks for playing. You can go back to watching "The Daniel Project" now.

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
22. no idea what the daniel project is, and i wish people would not do these obscure references
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:41 AM
Sep 2012

why not say what you think instead of beating around the bushes.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
8. I think you're wrong about U.S. involvement. I think the U.S. would almost certainly get
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:27 AM
Sep 2012

involved.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
11. I really don't
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:30 AM
Sep 2012

At least, nor in a military capability. We'll shuffle intel to Israel, and use diplomatic / economic pressures, but we will not commit any troops.

We're still pulling our last guys out of Iraq, and are trying to keep a lid on Afghanistan. do you really think that the US - at least under the current administration - is going to throw our men and women at a war of aggression from some piddleshit client state?

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
13. i agree, i think if theres any boots on the ground it will be subtle, mostly intelligence assets
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:33 AM
Sep 2012

sat pics etc probuably, mayby resupply of munitions expedited etc.

 

dballance

(5,756 posts)
20. I believe we'd send our bombers in after Israel's
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:40 AM
Sep 2012

With our bunker busters. Did we sell those to Israel yet?

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
24. I can't begin the imagine how doing so would be in the US's interest
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:45 AM
Sep 2012

And make no mistake, that is the bottom line of what the US will do. Despite accusations from some corners - and promises from others - we are not bound heart and soul to Israel. They are a client state, useful primarily because none of the other states in the region seem to have their shit together. If they ask us to throw our military at a third south Asian Muslim nation, one that will make Afghanistan look like a walk in the park, over bombastic rhetoric from a guy who looks like Alan Alda gone to seed, we're going to laugh in their faces.

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
25. lol at the alan alda comment, question for you would you support the assasination of the leaders in
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:47 AM
Sep 2012

Iran in support of another peoples uprising or does your no assasination thing cover that as well. thanks.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
26. No, I wouldn't. What a weird question.
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:54 AM
Sep 2012

Also, I'm pretty certain you don't get how Iran works. The Iranian people may not think their government is the greatest thing since baklava, but they're not going to rejoice if some foreigner assholes try to meddle in the situation.

Think of it this way. Pretty much everyone on this thread, I imagine, detested the Bush administration. Do you think any of us would have rejoiced, however, if China had sent someone to murder Bush and Cheney? I wouldn't have. Yourself?

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
27. im pretty sure when the government started killing and arresting the protesters, you do remember tha
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:59 AM
Sep 2012

or is that in the memory hole, that they were asking for outside help. even under bush i wouldnt compare living in Iran to the US, i dont support the Iranian Regime in any fashion whatsoever.

RandiFan1290

(6,206 posts)
29. They never asked for bombs.
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 06:23 AM
Sep 2012

They need support to change things for themselves. Not for Israel or US.
They saw how that turned out for Iraq.

I think Israel is afraid that Iran is making those changes and they are missing their last chance to bully them.

Elections are in June. Israel and US hands off Iran!

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
30. yay elections are in june, so i guess the nutters will win again, do you think there will be
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 06:26 AM
Sep 2012

protests again that will be put down again with violence and the point of a bayonet.

RandiFan1290

(6,206 posts)
32. They were in the streets for themselves
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 06:35 AM
Sep 2012

They never asked for our bombs. I see you are new and this must be moving too fast for you.

 

Scootaloo

(25,699 posts)
33. I do remember
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 07:22 AM
Sep 2012

They were asking for political support. Not assassinations, invasions, or missiles up the ass.

 

loli phabay

(5,580 posts)
35. so after the last time when they were butchered if they ask us to whack
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 07:55 AM
Sep 2012

The leadership in tbeir name would you be up for that. Or is any intervention not to your liking.

 

cali

(114,904 posts)
21. I'm not suggesting boots on the ground.
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 05:40 AM
Sep 2012

I'm suggesting, if Israel is attacked, that the U.S. would almost certainly use missile strikes against Iranian missiles.

TBF

(31,922 posts)
36. I dunno - I think it would depend a lot on timing
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 08:10 AM
Sep 2012

and who is president. Romney, he's going to take any opportunity because that is what a republican does. Times of economic strife - start a war somewhere, kill off some of the folks who need jobs, boost the economy making materials for the war etc ... that's a pretty familiar pattern.

With Obama I think it's a harder prediction. Before the election yes - he'd need to act because he's not going to lose pro-Israel supporters. After the election I would expect him behind the scenes trying to influence policy or helping in limited ways. He has guided the good ship Imperialism along pretty well for 4 years, but I also don't think he's completely stupid. I don't think he is really looking for that fight (because it could escalate badly and I really don't think Israel is his first priority) and after this election he is free - he can do what he wants until he retires to his life of building his presidential library and speaking engagements.

Javaman

(62,442 posts)
38. The price of oil will skyrocket...
Mon Sep 17, 2012, 04:02 PM
Sep 2012

Gas and food here, would certainly go up.

They won't win a lot of friends with that moronic move.

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