Today's unemployment claims numbers (ooops not going as well)
While some are looking at the slow decline in claims as proof of a rapid recovery, at better look at the numbers is starting to tell a different story.
The number today seems like a continuing decline, but that is only because last weeks numbers were revised higher. In addition it was nearly 250k higher than projected. (250k would be a bad number all on its own normally). !.5 million new claims is a terrible crushing number that is twice as much as we saw in 2008/09, it only looks good in comparison to the huge numbers we saw in March.
What appears to be happening is that as we have reopened business is adjusting to the new reality of the underlying economy. The rotation towards more whit collar jobs has begun. This implies a much slower and longer recovery even after a vaccine.
We are in for a very rough summer.
