It's been 10 days since trumps Tulsa rally. Anyone know

[Luz]

if their numbers are starting to rise?

[malaise]

1. We should know by the holiday weekend

one way or the other

[SoonerPride]

2. Oklahoma today posted the largest increase ever.

Our trajectory is pretty much straight up.

[Wounded Bear]

3. I suspect the rally surge is getting lost in the general one...

Hard to say how many are directly linked to that event.

But you have to think...

[SoonerPride]

4. I haven't seen any reports of specific attendees of that rally testing positive

Yet.......though I expect to see it soon enough

[Hortensis]

10. Fwiw, cell phone data showed that attendees came from

"dozens of Covid hot spots," most of them from 44 counties in 12 surrounding states. And of course that's where they dispersed to. There's some hope for less than superspreader effect because the arena was so sparsely attended, allowing people to not cram in who didn't choose to.

The Juneteenth event was outside and more of its mostly young attendees wore masks.

My husband and I "self isolated" on a drive to the Gulf coast today, through a couple of mostly retiree, fishing, tourist villages, fishing and reading at quiet spots on the way. I was at least hoping that we'd be able to have seafood outside for lunch, or if that didn't seem wise order takeout for a picnic. Even that wasn't wise, as it turned out. Just too many people out, mostly affluent middle age, and the places we like much too congested for us to be willing to go in even to pick up an order. Most weren't wearing masks, not even pulled down when outside, as they strolled the shops and restaurants. Poor townspeople.

We saw the last of the decorated boats that had put on a "Trumptilla" come back in, no particular support for their message among those on shore that we saw.

[MontanaMama]

5. Chris Hayes covered Tulsa a little bit last night.

They’re seeing 100% positive test results after the rally.



https://www.politicususa.com/2020/06/29/oklahoma-seeing-100-percent-positive-test-rate-for-covid-19-following-trumps-tulsa-rally.html

[ProfessorGAC]

7. I Don't Think That Means Much

In 2 days, they tested 530 people. In a metro area of a million, in a state of <4 million.
This is the equivalent of 1,060 tests per day for the state.
Illinois at 3x the people is testing around 24,000 a day.
I get that 100% is 100%, but the denominator is so small it's not smart to draw inferences.
If they were testing 8,000 a day, and positivity were just 10, it would be more people actually infected!
And TX & FL are at nearly 15. If Oklahoma were at 15, it would be 3 in 20 infected, but 1,200 cases, instead of 530. The % positive, as important as it is, seems to lack mathematical context.
I don't think Hayes thought this report through.

[MontanaMama]

14. I get your point...

and don’t disagree with it. But, you’re right 100% is 100% and the number of tests and cases are bound to increase as we reach the two week point after the rally. It’ll be interesting.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Some Illinois Context

Our positivity rate, state wide is around 2.7% over the last 10 days.
But, there was a point it was a ridiculous 30%+.
So, even in hot spots, there weren't 100% positives.
But, if these current hotspots start hitting numbers like we had a couple months ago here, it will be immensely dangerous.

[tblue37]

6. A lot of attendees came from the surrounding states & then returned to them. nt

[Blue Owl]

8. The numbers are marinating...

[Sneederbunk]

9. If they had to sign waivers, there should be a record of attendees.

[Bev54]

11. Yes of 430 attendees tested they had 100% positivity rate.

[IggleDuer]

12. Do you think the Trumpanzees would seek a test ...

... with mild symptoms? It would upset Der Fuhrer.

[Bengus81]

13. If they did attend and become positive their supposed to come clean about where they were

So factual tracing can be done.